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Magnification of the ‘China shock’ through the U.S. housing market

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  • Yuan Xu
  • Hong Ma
  • Robert Feenstra

Abstract

The ‘China shock’ operated in part through the housing market, which is one reason why its impact was so large on the U.S. labor market. We add housing to a multi‐region multi‐sector model, with individuals choosing whether and where to work. Controlling for housing reduces the negative direct impact of import exposure on manufacturing employment by 26%–31%, with a significant magnification through the housing market. A variance decomposition analysis shows that the indirect effect of the China shock through the housing market contributes an added 11% to the variance in manufacturing employment as compared to the direct effect of import exposure. For manufacturing and construction employment combined, the indirect effect even outweighs the direct effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuan Xu & Hong Ma & Robert Feenstra, 2023. "Magnification of the ‘China shock’ through the U.S. housing market," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 1864-1893, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:31:y:2023:i:5:p:1864-1893
    DOI: 10.1111/roie.12695
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    1. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2016. "The China Shock: Learning from Labor-Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 205-240, October.
    2. Wolfgang Dauth & Sebastian Findeisen & Jens Suedekum, 2014. "The Rise Of The East And The Far East: German Labor Markets And Trade Integration," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(6), pages 1643-1675, December.
    3. Daron Acemoglu & David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson & Brendan Price, 2016. "Import Competition and the Great US Employment Sag of the 2000s," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 141-198.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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