IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/reesec/v50y2022i4p1141-1159.html

Mortgage underwriting and house prices: Evidence from the 2011 change in the Dutch Code of Conduct for mortgage loans

Author

Listed:
  • Jan Rouwendal
  • Antonia Petrat

Abstract

During the Global Financial Crisis, house prices sharply declined in all West‐European countries, but after an initial recovery the Dutch housing market experienced a second dip. This paper examines whether the introduction of the tightened Code of Conduct for Mortgage Loans in 2011 had an effect on Dutch house prices. We compare the evolution of Dutch house prices with a synthetic control of other European countries. Our results suggest that the introduction of the new Code of Conduct did indeed have a substantial negative effect on Dutch house prices in the 2 years following its introduction. Several robustness checks confirm this conclusion.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Rouwendal & Antonia Petrat, 2022. "Mortgage underwriting and house prices: Evidence from the 2011 change in the Dutch Code of Conduct for mortgage loans," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1141-1159, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:50:y:2022:i:4:p:1141-1159
    DOI: 10.1111/1540-6229.12372
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6229.12372
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1540-6229.12372?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hilber, Christian A.L. & Lyytikäinen, Teemu, 2017. "Transfer taxes and household mobility: Distortion on the housing or labor market?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 57-73.
    2. Susan Athey & Guido W. Imbens, 2017. "The State of Applied Econometrics: Causality and Policy Evaluation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 3-32, Spring.
    3. Oikarinen, Elias, 2009. "Interaction between housing prices and household borrowing: The Finnish case," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 747-756, April.
    4. Michael Carlos Best & Henrik Jacobsen Kleven, 2018. "Housing Market Responses to Transaction Taxes: Evidence From Notches and Stimulus in the U.K," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(1), pages 157-193.
    5. Boris Hofmann, 2004. "The Determinants of Bank Credit in Industrialized Countries: Do Property Prices Matter?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 203-234, July.
    6. Giovanni Favara & Jean Imbs, 2015. "Credit Supply and the Price of Housing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 958-992, March.
    7. Gerlach, Stefan & Peng, Wensheng, 2005. "Bank lending and property prices in Hong Kong," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 461-481, February.
    8. Alberto Abadie & Alexis Diamond & Jens Hainmueller, 2015. "Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 59(2), pages 495-510, February.
    9. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    10. repec:hal:pseose:hal-01301589 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Albert Alex Zevelev, 2021. "Does Collateral Value Affect Asset Prices? Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Texas," Papers 2102.02935, arXiv.org.
    12. Alberto Abadie, 2021. "Using Synthetic Controls: Feasibility, Data Requirements, and Methodological Aspects," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 391-425, June.
    13. Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann, 2008. "House prices, money, credit, and the macroeconomy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 24(1), pages 180-205, spring.
    14. Albert Alex Zevelev, 2021. "Does Collateral Value Affect Asset Prices? Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Texas," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(9), pages 4373-4411.
    15. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Maureen Lankhuizen & Jan Rouwendal, 2024. "Rental Contract Liberalisation in The Netherlands: Effects on Rents, Vacancy Rates and Residential Mobility," De Economist, Springer, vol. 172(4), pages 257-290, December.
    2. repec:tin:wpaper:20230005 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cruz A. Echevarría & Serhat Hasancebi & Javier García-Enríquez, 2022. "Economic Effects of Macao’s Integration with Mainland China: A Causal Inference Study," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 37(2), pages 179-215.
    2. Dennis Shen & Peng Ding & Jasjeet Sekhon & Bin Yu, 2022. "Same Root Different Leaves: Time Series and Cross-Sectional Methods in Panel Data," Papers 2207.14481, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2022.
    3. Pavlik, Jamie Bologna & Jahan, Israt & Young, Andrew T., 2023. "Do longer constitutions corrupt?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    4. Pekka Malo & Juha Eskelinen & Xun Zhou & Timo Kuosmanen, 2024. "Computing Synthetic Controls Using Bilevel Optimization," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(2), pages 1113-1136, August.
    5. Michael Funke & Helery Tasane, 2025. "Regional economic impacts of the Øresund cross-border fixed link: Cui Bono?," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 59(1), pages 2573115-257, December.
    6. Robert Kraemer & Jonne Lehtimäki, 2024. "Government debt, European Institutions and fiscal rules: a synthetic control approach," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(4), pages 1112-1157, August.
    7. Emiliano Toni & Pablo Paniagua & Patricio 'Ordenes, 2024. "Policy Changes and Growth Slowdown: Assessing the Lost Decade of the Latin American Miracle," Papers 2407.02003, arXiv.org.
    8. Tomasz Serwach, 2023. "The European Union and within‐country income inequalities. The case of the new member states," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(7), pages 1890-1939, July.
    9. Tomasz Serwach, 2022. "The European Union and within-country income inequalities. The case of the New Member States," Working Papers hal-03548416, HAL.
    10. Israt Jahan & Amir Tayebi, 2025. "The role of firm age in the impact of right-to-work laws on job creation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 45(3), pages 1467-1474.
    11. Cho, Sang-Wook (Stanley) & Wong, Sally, 2025. "Monetary regimes and regional economies: A counterfactual perspective from two euro opt-outs," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    12. Martín-Román, Javier & Martín-Román, Ángel L., 2025. "An Impact Evaluation of the Effects of Income Support Benefits on Aggregate Labour Supply," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1682, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    13. Diego D'iaz & Pablo Paniagua & Cristi'an Larroulet, 2024. "Earthquakes and the wealth of nations: The cases of Chile and New Zealand," Papers 2405.12041, arXiv.org.
    14. David Gilchrist & Thomas Emery & Nuno Garoupa & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Synthetic Control Method: A tool for comparative case studies in economic history," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 409-445, April.
    15. Nadine McCloud, 2022. "Does domestic investment respond to inflation targeting? A synthetic control investigation," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 169, pages 98-134.
    16. Yu, Jisang & Ijaz, Arusha, 2023. "Recovering from Natural Disaster through Exports: The Case of 2010 Pakistan Flood and EU Tariff Waiver on Pakistan Textile Exports," 2023 Annual Meeting, July 23-25, Washington D.C. 335710, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    17. Brehm, Johannes & aus dem Moore, Nils & Gruhl, Henri, 2022. "Driving Innovation? – Carbon Tax Effects in the Swedish Transport Sector," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264085, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. Edoardo Masset, 2022. "Conflict and Child Mortality in Mali: A Synthetic Control Analysis," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 48(4), pages 1097-1123, December.
    19. Arne Henningsen & Guy Low & David Wuepper & Tobias Dalhaus & Hugo Storm & Dagim Belay & Stefan Hirsch, 2024. "Estimating Causal Effects with Observational Data: Guidelines for Agricultural and Applied Economists," IFRO Working Paper 2024/03, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
    20. Saleem, Adil & Zahid, R.M. Ammar & Sági, Judit, 2025. "Differential impact of adopting Islamic banking: A quasi-experimental approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:50:y:2022:i:4:p:1141-1159. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/areueea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.