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Rethinking Global Food Demand for 2050

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  • Walter P. Falcon
  • Rosamond L. Naylor
  • Nikhil D. Shankar

Abstract

Published estimates of 2050 food demand exhibit an enormous range of values. This paper projects a 50–60 percent increase in total global food demand between 2019 and 2050. Our analysis indicates a substantial slowing of rice demand, a growing share of palm oil in world fats and oils markets, and a continued shift to poultry as the dominant form of meat consumption. In contrast to most existing food models, we integrate fish consumption into the analysis of vegetable and animal protein and highlight the dangers of using commonly cited feed ratios for projecting feed grain demand. More broadly, we demonstrate the value of a commodity by region approach for understanding complexities in the world food system.

Suggested Citation

  • Walter P. Falcon & Rosamond L. Naylor & Nikhil D. Shankar, 2022. "Rethinking Global Food Demand for 2050," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 48(4), pages 921-957, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:48:y:2022:i:4:p:921-957
    DOI: 10.1111/padr.12508
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mark W. Rosegrant & Simla Tokgoz & Prapti Bhandary, 2013. "The New Normal? A Tighter Global Agricultural Supply and Demand Relation and Its Implications for Food Security," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 95(2), pages 303-309.
    2. Christophe Gouel & Houssein Guimbard, 2019. "Nutrition Transition and the Structure of Global Food Demand," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 101(2), pages 383-403.
    3. Benjamin Leon Bodirsky & Susanne Rolinski & Anne Biewald & Isabelle Weindl & Alexander Popp & Hermann Lotze-Campen, 2015. "Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(11), pages 1-27, November.
    4. Joanne C. Gaskell, 2015. "The Role of Markets, Technology, and Policy in Generating Palm-Oil Demand in Indonesia," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(1), pages 29-45, April.
    5. Pardey, Philip G. & Beddow, Jason M. & Hurley, Terrance M., 2014. "World Food Futures to 2050," Briefs 197625, University of Minnesota, International Science and Technology Practice and Policy.
    6. Pardey, Philip G. & Beddow, Jason M. & Hurley, Terrance M. & Beatty, Timothy K.M. & Eidman, Vernon R., 2014. "A Bounds Analysis of World Food Futures: Global Agriculture Through to 2050," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58(4), October.
    7. Andreyeva, T. & Long, M.W. & Brownell, K.D., 2010. "The impact of food prices on consumption: A systematic review of research on the price elasticity of demand for food," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 100(2), pages 216-222.
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    Cited by:

    1. Naylor, Rosamond & Fang, Safari & Fanzo, Jessica, 2023. "A global view of aquaculture policy," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).

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