IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/popdev/v45y2019i4p819-834.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Explaining Disability Trends in the United States, 1963–2015

Author

Listed:
  • J. Jona Schellekens

Abstract

The National Health Interview Survey is the world's longest survey time series of health data. In spite of the availability of such a long time series, previous studies did not attempt to explain long‐term trends in disability, because the design of the question in the survey has changed over time. To control for changes in the design of the question, I added two variables indicating major changes in the design to the analysis. My results show that the decline in mortality from cardiovascular disease is associated with the rise in disability in the 1970s, whereas better education is associated with the long‐term decline in disability that started in the 1980s. Combined, the two variables are able to account for all major trends in disability at age 50–84 from 1963 to 2015, leaving limited room for other explanations. The statistical model predicts that the trend in falling disability rates will end as the rise in educational levels draws to a halt.

Suggested Citation

  • J. Jona Schellekens, 2019. "Explaining Disability Trends in the United States, 1963–2015," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 45(4), pages 819-834, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:45:y:2019:i:4:p:819-834
    DOI: 10.1111/padr.12292
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12292
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/padr.12292?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vicki Freedman & Linda Martin, 1999. "The role of education in explaining and forecasting trends in functional limitations among older Americans," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 36(4), pages 461-473, November.
    2. Lin, S.-F. & Beck, A.N. & Finch, B.K. & Hummer, R.A. & Master, R.K., 2012. "Trends in US older adult disability: Exploring age, period, and cohort effects," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 102(11), pages 2157-2163.
    3. Dora Costa, 2002. "Changing chronic disease rates and longterm declines in functional limitation among older men," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 39(1), pages 119-137, February.
    4. Crimmins, E.M. & Zhang, Y. & Saito, Y., 2016. "Trends over 4 decades in disability-free life expectancy in the United States," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 106(7), pages 1287-1293.
    5. Scott Lynch, 2003. "Cohort and life-course patterns in the relationship between education and health: A hierarchical approach," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 40(2), pages 309-331, May.
    6. Dora Costa, 2000. "Understanding the twentieth-century decline in chronic conditions among older men," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 37(1), pages 53-72, February.
    7. David M. Cutler & Mary Beth Landrum & Kate A. Stewart, 2009. "Intensive Medical Care and Cardiovascular Disease Disability Reductions," NBER Chapters, in: Health at Older Ages: The Causes and Consequences of Declining Disability among the Elderly, pages 191-222, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Robert F. Schoeni & Vicki A. Freedman & Robert B. Wallace, 2001. "Persistent, Consistent, Widespread, and Robust? Another Look at Recent Trends in Old-Age Disability," The Journals of Gerontology: Series B, The Gerontological Society of America, vol. 56(4), pages 206-218.
    9. Robert O’brien, 2007. "A Caution Regarding Rules of Thumb for Variance Inflation Factors," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 41(5), pages 673-690, October.
    10. David M. Cutler & David A. Wise, 2009. "Health at Older Ages: The Causes and Consequences of Declining Disability among the Elderly," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number cutl08-1.
    11. HwaJung Choi & Robert F Schoeni & Linda G Martin, 2016. "Are Functional and Activity Limitations Becoming More Prevalent among 55 to 69-Year-Olds in the United States?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(10), pages 1-14, October.
    12. David A. Wise, 2005. "Analyses in the Economics of Aging," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number wise05-1.
    13. Ronald R. Rindfuss & Minja K. Choe & Noriko O. Tsuya & Larry L. Bumpass & Emi Tamaki, 2015. "Do low survey response rates bias results? Evidence from Japan," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 32(26), pages 797-828.
    14. Samir KC & Harold Lentzner, 2010. "The effect of education on adult mortality and disability: a global perspective," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 8(1), pages 201-235.
    15. John L. Czajka & Amy Beyler, "undated". "Declining Response Rates in Federal Surveys: Trends and Implications (Background Paper)," Mathematica Policy Research Reports a714f76e878f4a74a6ad9f15d, Mathematica Policy Research.
    16. David M. Cutler, 2005. "Intensive Medical Technology and the Reduction in Disability," NBER Chapters, in: Analyses in the Economics of Aging, pages 161-184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Ottar Hellevik, 2009. "Linear versus logistic regression when the dependent variable is a dichotomy," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 59-74, January.
    18. Jona Schellekens, 2017. "The marriage boom and marriage bust in the United States: An age–period–cohort analysis," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 71(1), pages 65-82, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jona Schellekens & Anat Ziv, 2020. "The role of education in explaining trends in self-rated health in the United States, 1972–2018," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 42(12), pages 383-398.
    2. Michael Chernew & David M. Cutler & Kaushik Ghosh & Mary Beth Landrum, 2016. "Understanding the Improvement in Disability-Free Life Expectancy in the US Elderly Population," NBER Chapters, in: Insights in the Economics of Aging, pages 161-201, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Mary Beth Landrum & Kate A. Stewart & David M. Cutler, 2009. "Clinical Pathways to Disability," NBER Chapters, in: Health at Older Ages: The Causes and Consequences of Declining Disability among the Elderly, pages 151-187, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Holger Strulik, 2017. "The Genesis of the Golden Age: Accounting for the Rise in Health and Leisure," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 24, pages 132-151, March.
    5. Freedman, Vicki A. & Martin, Linda G. & Schoeni, Robert F. & Cornman, Jennifer C., 2008. "Declines in late-life disability: The role of early- and mid-life factors," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 66(7), pages 1588-1602, April.
    6. Holger Strulik & Katharina Werner, 2016. "50 is the new 30—long-run trends of schooling and retirement explained by human aging," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 165-187, June.
    7. Ovrum, Arnstein & Gustavsen, Geir Waehler & Rickertsen, Kyrre, 2012. "Health inequalities over the adult life course: the role of lifestyle choices," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 125862, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. Baeten, Steef & Van Ourti, Tom & van Doorslaer, Eddy, 2013. "The socioeconomic health gradient across the life cycle: What role for selective mortality and institutionalization?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 66-74.
    9. Strulik, Holger & Grossmann, Volker, 2024. "The economics of aging with infectious and chronic diseases," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    10. van Kippersluis, Hans & Van Ourti, Tom & O'Donnell, Owen & van Doorslaer, Eddy, 2009. "Health and income across the life cycle and generations in Europe," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 818-830, July.
    11. van Kippersluis, Hans & O'Donnell, Owen & van Doorslaer, Eddy & Van Ourti, Tom, 2010. "Socioeconomic differences in health over the life cycle in an Egalitarian country," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 70(3), pages 428-438, February.
    12. Linda Martin & Robert Schoeni & Patricia Andreski, 2010. "Trends in health of older adults in the United States: Past, present, future," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 47(1), pages 17-40, March.
    13. David M. Cutler & Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2010. "The Education Gradient in Old Age Disability," NBER Chapters, in: Research Findings in the Economics of Aging, pages 101-120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Costa, Dora L., 2004. "The Measure of Man and Older Age Mortality: Evidence from the Gould Sample," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 64(1), pages 1-23, March.
    15. Fogel, Robert W. & Cain, Louis & Burton, Joseph & Bettenhausen, Brian, 2013. "Was what ail’d ya what kill’d ya?," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 269-280.
    16. Dora L. Costa, 2015. "Health and the Economy in the United States from 1750 to the Present," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 53(3), pages 503-570, September.
    17. Holger Strulik & Volker Grossmann, 2022. "Life Cycle Economics with Infectious and Chronic Diseases," CESifo Working Paper Series 10141, CESifo.
    18. Costa, Dora L. & Yetter, Noelle & DeSomer, Heather, 2020. "Wartime health shocks and the postwar socioeconomic status and mortality of union army veterans and their children," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    19. Dora L. Costa, 2004. "Race and Older Age Mortality: Evidence from Union Army Veterans," NBER Working Papers 10902, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Dora L. Costa & Heather DeSomer & Eric Hanss & Christopher Roudiez & Sven E. Wilson & Noelle Yetter, 2017. "Union Army veterans, all grown up," Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(2), pages 79-95, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:45:y:2019:i:4:p:819-834. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0098-7921 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.