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Growth and Violence: Argument for a Per Capita Measure of Civil War

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  • Hannes Mueller

Abstract

This article proposes a new measure of civil war. The measure defines violence intensity in casualties per capita instead of number of casualties. We discuss the assumptions behind this per capita model and the existing standard model. We show that the two measures behave differently in standard growth regressions and argue that this is because the standard model is a mis-specification in this context. Casualties appear to affect growth more in smaller populations. We argue that a debate on the right model can help distinguish between competing theories in the conflict literature. This is particularly relevant given the current development of new micro-data in this field.
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  • Hannes Mueller, 2016. "Growth and Violence: Argument for a Per Capita Measure of Civil War," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 83(331), pages 473-497, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:83:y:2016:i:331:p:473-497
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/ecca.12193
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    Cited by:

    1. Mueller, Hannes & Rauh, Christopher, 2018. "Reading Between the Lines: Prediction of Political Violence Using Newspaper Text," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 112(2), pages 358-375, May.
    2. Rohner, Dominic & Mueller, Hannes & Schönholzer, David, 2017. "The Peace Dividend of Distance: Violence as Interaction Across Space," CEPR Discussion Papers 11897, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Heger, Martin Philipp & Neumayer, Eric, 2022. "Economic legacy effects of armed conflict: insights from the Civil War in Aceh, Indonesia," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 108236, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Hannes Mueller & Dominic Rohner & David Schönholzer, 2022. "Ethnic Violence Across Space," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(642), pages 709-740.
    5. Leopoldo Fergusson & Pablo Querubin & Nelson A. Ruiz & Juan F. Vargas, 2021. "The Real Winner's Curse," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 65(1), pages 52-68, January.
    6. Barrett, Philip, 2022. "The fiscal cost of conflict: Evidence from Afghanistan 2005–2017," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    7. Martin Philipp Heger & Eric Neumayer, 2022. "Economic legacy effects of armed conflict: Insights from the civil war in Aceh, Indonesia," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 39(4), pages 394-421, July.
    8. Mr. Philip Barrett, 2018. "The Fiscal Cost of Conflict: Evidence from Afghanistan 2005-2016," IMF Working Papers 2018/204, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Mueller,Hannes Felix & Techasunthornwat,Chanon, 2020. "Conflict and Poverty," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9455, The World Bank.
    10. Novta, Natalija & Pugacheva, Evgenia, 2021. "The macroeconomic costs of conflict," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    11. Martínez, Luis R., 2017. "Transnational insurgents: Evidence from Colombia's FARC at the border with Chávez's Venezuela," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 138-153.
    12. Le, Thai-Ha & Bui, Manh-Tien & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2022. "Economic and social impacts of conflict: A cross-country analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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