IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bic/journl/v17y2017i2p103-118.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Effects of population ageing on the pension system in Belarus

Author

Listed:
  • Katerina Lisenkova

    (Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK)

  • Kateryna Bornukova

    (Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC), Minsk, Belarus)

Abstract

Belarus currently has a relatively generous pay-as-you-go pension system, but population aging coupled with recent problems with economic growth will soon make it unsustainable. We build a rich overlapping generation model of Belarusian economy, which shows that without reform the Pension Fund will run into persistent and growing deficit, which will reach 9% of GDP by 2055. We also compute the fiscal projections of several parametric pension reforms, including the reform which will start in 2017. To avoid a deficit without reform, pension benefits would have to be substantially reduced. The increase of retirement age to 65 for both genders has a strong positive effect on sustainability of the pension system and keeps the deficit below 2% of GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Katerina Lisenkova & Kateryna Bornukova, 2017. "Effects of population ageing on the pension system in Belarus," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 17(2), pages 103-118.
  • Handle: RePEc:bic:journl:v:17:y:2017:i:2:p:103-118
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1406099X.2017.1318000
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Montserrat Pallares-Miralles & Carolina Romero & Edward Whitehouse, 2012. "A Worldwide Overview of Facts and Figures," World Bank Publications - Reports 11891, The World Bank Group.
    2. Ellman, Michael, 1994. "The Increase in Death and Disease under "Katastroika."," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(4), pages 329-355, August.
    3. Attanasio, Orazio P, et al, 1999. "Humps and Bumps in Lifetime Consumption," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 22-35, January.
    4. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    5. Elizabeth Brainerd & David M. Cutler, 2005. "Autopsy on an Empire: Understanding Mortality in Russia and the Former Soviet Union," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(1), pages 107-130, Winter.
    6. Javier Diaz-Gimenez & Julian Diaz-Saavedra, 2009. "Delaying Retirement in Spain," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(1), pages 147-167, January.
    7. Havranek, Tomas & Horvath, Roman & Irsova, Zuzana & Rusnak, Marek, 2015. "Cross-country heterogeneity in intertemporal substitution," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 100-118.
    8. Pallares-Miralles, Montserrat & Romero, Carolina & Whitehouse, Edward, 2012. "International patterns of pension provision II : a worldwide overview of facts and figures," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 70319, The World Bank.
    9. Tomáš Havránek, 2015. "Measuring Intertemporal Substitution: The Importance Of Method Choices And Selective Reporting," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(6), pages 1180-1204, December.
    10. Mariacristina De Nardi & Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Thomas J. Sargent, 1999. "Projected U.S. Demographics and Social Security," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(3), pages 575-615, July.
    11. David M. Bishai, 2004. "Does time preference change with age?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 17(4), pages 583-602, December.
    12. Menahem E. Yaari, 1965. "Uncertain Lifetime, Life Insurance, and the Theory of the Consumer," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(2), pages 137-150.
    13. Auerbach, Alan J & Kotlikoff, Laurence J, 1987. "Evaluating Fiscal Policy with a Dynamic Simulation Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 49-55, May.
    14. Katerina Lisenkova, 2016. "An Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) Model with Age-variable Rate of Time Preference," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 458, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    15. World Bank, 2015. "World Development Indicators 2015," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 21634.
    16. Pavel Grigoriev & Vladimir Shkolnikov & Evgueni Andreev & Domantas Jasilionis & Dmitri Jdanov & France Meslé & Jacques Vallin, 2010. "Mortality in Belarus, Lithuania, and Russia: Divergence in Recent Trends and Possible Explanations [La mortalité en Biélorussie, Lituanie et Russie: Divergence dans les Tendances Récentes et Explic," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 26(3), pages 245-274, August.
    17. Trostel, Philip A & Taylor, Grant A, 2001. "A Theory of Time Preference," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(3), pages 379-395, July.
    18. Alícia Adserà, 2004. "Changing fertility rates in developed countries. The impact of labor market institutions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 17(1), pages 17-43, February.
    19. Aliaksandr Amialchuk & Katerina Lisenkova & Mykhaylo Salnykov & Maksim Yemelyanau, 2014. "Economic determinants of fertility in Belarus," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 22(3), pages 577-604, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jiayun Liu & Jianyuan Huang & Huimin Li, 2022. "How Can the Modern Chinese Family Retirement Function Be Separated and Sustainable?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-19, August.
    2. Alexandru Cojocaru & Mikhail Matytsin, 2017. "Poverty and Shared Prosperity in Belarus over the Past Decade," World Bank Publications - Reports 28581, The World Bank Group.
    3. Huan Wang & Jianyuan Huang & Shuangyue Sun, 2019. "Assessment of the Financial Sustainability of China’s New Rural Pension Plan: Does the Demographic Policy Reform Matter?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-22, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Koomen, Miriam & Wicht, Laurence, 2022. "Pension systems and the current account: An empirical exploration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    2. Börsch-Supan, A. & Härtl, K. & Leite, D.N., 2016. "Social Security and Public Insurance," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 781-863, Elsevier.
    3. Katerina Lisenkova, 2016. "An Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) Model with Age-variable Rate of Time Preference," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 458, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    4. Schön, Matthias & Stähler, Nikolai, 2020. "When old meets young? Germany's population ageing and the current account," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 315-336.
    5. Rajnish Mehra & Facundo Piguillem & Edward C. Prescott, 2011. "Costly financial intermediation in neoclassical growth theory," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(1), pages 1-36, March.
    6. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    7. Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2019. "Demographic structures, savings, and international capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 1-1.
    8. Gary Hansen & Selahattin Imrohoroglu, 2008. "Consumption over the Life Cycle: The Role of Annuities," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(3), pages 566-583, July.
    9. Gary D. Hansen, "undated". "Consumption over the Life Cycle: The Role of Annuities (with Selo Imrohoroglu)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 417, UCLA Department of Economics.
    10. Luca MARCHIORI & Olivier PIERRARD & Henri R. SNEESSENS, 2011. "Demography, capital flows and unemployment," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2011040, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    11. Marchiori, Luca & Pierrard, Olivier, 2017. "How does global demand for financial services promote domestic growth in Luxembourg? A dynamic general equilibrium analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 103-123.
    12. Attanasio, O. & Bonfatti, A. & Kitao, S. & Weber, G., 2016. "Global Demographic Trends," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 179-235, Elsevier.
    13. Ruppert, Kilian & Stähler, Nikolai, 2020. "Household savings, capital investments and public policies: What drives the German current account?," Discussion Papers 41/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. Daniel Baksa & Zsuzsa Munkacsi, 2016. "Aging, (Pension) Reforms and the Shadow Economy in Southern Europe," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 32, Bank of Lithuania.
    15. Ruppert, Kilian & Stähler, Nikolai, 2022. "What drives the German current account? Household savings, capital investments and public policies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    16. Dominika Reckova & Zuzana Irsova, 2015. "Publication Bias in Measuring Anthropogenic Climate Change," Energy & Environment, , vol. 26(5), pages 853-862, September.
    17. Heer, Burkhard & Polito, Vito & Wickens, Michael R., 2020. "Population aging, social security and fiscal limits," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    18. Havranek, Tomas & Horvath, Roman & Zeynalov, Ayaz, 2016. "Natural Resources and Economic Growth: A Meta-Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 134-151.
    19. Ryan Edwards, 2013. "The cost of uncertain life span," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1485-1522, October.
    20. Havranek, Tomas & Herman, Dominik & Irsova, Zuzana, 2016. "Does Daylight Saving Save Energy? A Meta-Analysis," MPRA Paper 74518, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Belarus; pension system; demography; retirement age; pension reform;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bic:journl:v:17:y:2017:i:2:p:103-118. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/biceplv.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lelde Jakobsone The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Lelde Jakobsone to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/biceplv.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.