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Sobre los efectos macroeconómicos de la composición de la deuda pública en Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Franz Hamann
  • Julián Pérez
  • Paulina Restrepo

Abstract

En este artículo se presenta un análisis cuantitativo del impacto macroeconómico de la forma como se financia el déficit fiscal en una economía pequeña y abierta. En particular, nos enfocamos en evaluar el impacto macroeconómico de una situación en la que, dado un nivel de déficit fiscal, el gobierno decide entre financiarlo con deuda doméstica o externa. Para este propósito empleamos un modelo de equilibrio general dinámico y estocástico para una economía pequeña y abierta. Al calibrar el modelo a la economía colombiana, encontramos que los efectos de una sustitución de deuda pública externa por interna dependen de si ésta es transitoria o permanente. Una sustitución transitoria tiene efectos reales despreciables, con excepción de su impacto sobre los flujos de capital privados (“efecto portafolio”). Es decir, un aumento de la deuda pública doméstica vis à vis una reducción en la externa, es balanceado por una reducción de los activos externos netos privados. Por el contrario, una sustitución permanente de un 10% de deuda externa por doméstica tiene efectos macroeconómicos transitorios pero considerables sobre la actividad real: una reducción inicial en la inversión, producto de mayores tasas de interés que resultaría en un aumento en los activos externos netos de un 5% con una depreciación nominal cercana al 1%. Esta sustitución permite reducir transitoriamente la tasa de impuesto a la renta en un 2%, el cual aumentaría persistentemente el consumo hasta en un 3%.Classification-JEL: F41, H60

Suggested Citation

  • Franz Hamann & Julián Pérez & Paulina Restrepo, 2005. "Sobre los efectos macroeconómicos de la composición de la deuda pública en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 23(49), pages 12-47, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:ensayo:v:23:y:2005:i:49:p:12-47
    DOI: 10.32468/Espe.4901
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    política fiscal; composición de deuda pública; flujos de capital; Colombia.Note:;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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