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Sobre los efectos macroeconómicos de la composición de la deuda pública en Colombia

  • Franz Hamann

    ()

  • Julián Pérez

    ()

  • Paulina Restrepo

    ()

En este artículo se presenta un análisis cuantitativo del impacto macroeconómico de la forma como se financia el déficit fiscal en una economía pequeña y abierta. En particular, nos enfocamos en evaluar el impacto macroeconómico de una situación en la que, dado un nivel de déficit fiscal, el gobierno decide entre financiarlo con deuda doméstica o externa. Para este propósito empleamos un modelo de equilibrio general dinámico y estocástico para una economía pequeña y abierta. Al calibrar el modelo a la economía colombiana, encontramos que los efectos de una sustitución de deuda pública externa por interna dependen de si ésta es transitoria o permanente. Una sustitución transitoria tiene efectos reales despreciables, con excepción de su impacto sobre los flujos de capital privados (efecto portafolio"). Es decir, un aumento de la deuda pública doméstica vis à vis una reducción en la externa, es balanceado por una reducción de los activos externos netos privados. Por el contrario, una sustitución permanente de un 10% de deuda externa por doméstica tiene efectos macroeconómicos transitorios pero considerables sobre la actividad real: una reducción inicial en la inversión, producto de mayores tasas de interés que resultaría en un aumento en los activos externos netos de un 5% con una depreciación nominal cercana al 1%. Esta sustitución permite reducir transitoriamente la tasa de impuesto a la renta en un 2%, el cual aumentaría persistentemente el consumo hasta en un 3%."

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Article provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE in its journal ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA.

Volume (Year): (2005)
Issue (Month): ()
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Handle: RePEc:col:000107:007516
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  15. Alberto Carrasquilla & Hernán Rincón, 1990. "Relaciones entre déficit público y ahorro privado: Aproximaciones al caso colombiano," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
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