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On the Macroeconomic Effects of Public Debt Substitution

  • Franz Hamann

    ()

  • Julián Pérez

    ()

  • Paulina Restrepo

    ()

This paper presents a quantitative analysis of the way in which a government finances its fiscal deficit in a small open economy. In particular, it focuses on the evaluation of the macroeconomic impact of a situation in which, given a fiscal deficit, the government decides whether to finance it with domestic or external debt. For this purpose a small open economy DSGE model is used. The model is calibrated to the colombian economy. The results depend on whether the substitution is transitory or permanent. The former has negligible macroeconomic effects, except for the impact on private capital flows (we call this a «portfolio effect»). An increase in the domestic public debt equally matched by a reduction in the external debt, is balanced by a reduction in private net foreign assets. On the contrary, a permanent substitution of 10% in the level of external public debt by domestic debt, has transitory but significant effects on the level of real economic activity and capital flows. Such a recomposition generates a 5% increase in net foreign assets (a capital outflow) along with a 1% nominal nominal depreciation. Although our results are quite general under flexible prices, we especulate that they may change in the presence of uncertainty about the sustainability of fiscal deficit and/or nominal and real rigidities.

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Article provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE in its journal ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA.

Volume (Year): (2005)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:col:000107:007495
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  1. Javier Gómez Pineda, 2004. "A Framework for Macroeconomic Stability in Emerging Market Economies," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 001915, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  2. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2002. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," NBER Working Papers 9270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2000. "Currency Crises and Monetary Policy in an Economy with Credit Constraints," CEPR Discussion Papers 2529, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Claessens, Stijn & Klingebiel, Daniela & Schmukler, Sergio, 2003. "Government Bonds in Domestic and Foreign Currency: The Role of Macroeconomic and Institutional Factors," CEPR Discussion Papers 3789, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  7. Michael Kumhof & Shujing Li & Isabel Yan, . "Balance of Payments Crises Under Inflation Targeting," Working Papers 00020, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
  8. Bohn, Henning, 1990. "A positive theory of foreign currency debt," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3-4), pages 273-292, November.
  9. Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309, April.
  10. Santiago Gutiérrez V. & Michel Formisano P., 2003. "La culpa es del Yankee: Correlaciones e ineficiencias en el mercado de dinero," APUNTES DE BANCA Y FINANZAS 002959, ASOBANCARIA.
  11. Wallace, Neil, 1981. "A Modigliani-Miller Theorem for Open-Market Operations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 267-74, June.
  12. Olivier Jeanne, 2003. "Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow in Foreign Currency?," IMF Working Papers 03/177, International Monetary Fund.
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