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Brexit: situation and economic consequences

Author

Listed:
  • Alejandro Buesa
  • Coral García
  • Iván Kataryniuk
  • César Martín-Machuca
  • Susana Moreno
  • Moritz Roth

Abstract

The effective departure of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU) opens up a new period of relations between the two areas. The current health crisis limits economic policies’ room for manoeuvre to accommodate the costs of transitioning to a new economic relationship, whatever final form it may take. This article describes the most recent developments in the negotiation process and outlines three possible scenarios for the future EU-UK trading relationship, providing simulations of the potential macroeconomic impact in each case. Moreover, the recent trend in trading and financial relations between the United Kingdom and Spain is set out in a box.

Suggested Citation

  • Alejandro Buesa & Coral García & Iván Kataryniuk & César Martín-Machuca & Susana Moreno & Moritz Roth, 2020. "Brexit: situation and economic consequences," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue 4/2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:journl:y:2020:i:12:d:aa:n:40
    Note: Analytical Articles
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    6. Lucía Cuadro-Sáez & Fernando S. López-Vicente & Susana Párraga Rodríguez & Francesca Viani, 2020. "Fiscal policy measures in response to the health crisis in the main euro area economies, the United States and the United Kingdom," Occasional Papers 2019, Banco de España.
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    8. Daniel Alonso & Alejandro Buesa & Carlos Moreno & Susana Párraga & Francesca Viani, 2021. "Fiscal policy measures adopted since the second wave of the health crisis: the euro area, the United States and the United Kingdom," Occasional Papers 2118, Banco de España.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Alejandro Buesa & Iván Kataryniuk & Pilar L’Hotellerie-Fallois & Susana Moreno, 2021. "The EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA)," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue 1/2021.
    2. Laura Álvarez & Pana Alves & Roberto Badás & César Martín, 2022. "The Balance of Payments and International Investment Position of Spain in 2021," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue 3/2022.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brexit; NiGEM; scenario analysis; tariffs; non-tariff barriers; migration; FDI.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations

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