IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bde/journl/y2020i12daan40.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Brexit: situation and economic consequences

Author

Listed:
  • Alejandro Buesa
  • Coral García
  • Iván Kataryniuk
  • César Martín-Machuca
  • Susana Moreno
  • Moritz Roth

Abstract

The effective departure of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU) opens up a new period of relations between the two areas. The current health crisis limits economic policies’ room for manoeuvre to accommodate the costs of transitioning to a new economic relationship, whatever final form it may take. This article describes the most recent developments in the negotiation process and outlines three possible scenarios for the future EU-UK trading relationship, providing simulations of the potential macroeconomic impact in each case. Moreover, the recent trend in trading and financial relations between the United Kingdom and Spain is set out in a box.

Suggested Citation

  • Alejandro Buesa & Coral García & Iván Kataryniuk & César Martín-Machuca & Susana Moreno & Moritz Roth, 2020. "Brexit: situation and economic consequences," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue 4/2020.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:journl:y:2020:i:12:d:aa:n:40
    Note: Analytical Articles
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/InformesBoletinesRevistas/ArticulosAnaliticos/20/T4/descargar/Files/be2004-art40e.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David L. Hummels & Georg Schaur, 2013. "Time as a Trade Barrier," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(7), pages 2935-2959, December.
    2. Gabriel Felbermayr & Jasmin Gröschl & Thomas Steinwachs, 2018. "The Trade Effects of Border Controls: Evidence from the European Schengen Agreement," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(2), pages 335-351, March.
    3. Arno Hantzsche & Amit Kara & Garry Young, 2019. "The economic effects of the UK government's proposed Brexit deal," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(1), pages 5-20, January.
    4. Antoine Berthou & Sophie Haincourt & Marie-Elisabeth de la Serve & Ángel Estrada & Moritz A. Roth & Alexander Kadow, 2019. "Assessing the macroeconomic impact of Brexit through trade and migration channels," Occasional Papers 1911, Banco de España.
    5. Juan Luis Vega (coord.), 2019. "Brexit: current situation and outlook," Occasional Papers 1905, Banco de España.
    6. Lucía Cuadro-Sáez & Fernando S. López-Vicente & Susana Párraga Rodríguez & Francesca Viani, 2020. "Fiscal policy measures in response to the health crisis in the main euro area economies, the United States and the United Kingdom," Occasional Papers 2019, Banco de España.
    7. Pablo Aguilar & Óscar Arce & Samuel Hurtado & Jaime Martínez-Martín & Galo Nuño & Carlos Thomas, 2020. "The ECB monetary policy response to the Covid-19 crisis," Occasional Papers 2026, Banco de España.
    8. Daniel Alonso & Alejandro Buesa & Carlos Moreno & Susana Párraga & Francesca Viani, 2021. "Fiscal policy measures adopted since the second wave of the health crisis: the euro area, the United States and the United Kingdom," Occasional Papers 2118, Banco de España.
    9. Rita Cappariello, 2017. "Brexit: estimating tariff costs for EU countries in a new trade regime with the UK," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 381, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alejandro Buesa & Iván Kataryniuk & Pilar L’Hotellerie-Fallois & Susana Moreno, 2021. "The EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA)," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue 1/2021.
    2. Laura Álvarez & Pana Alves & Roberto Badás & César Martín, 2022. "The Balance of Payments and International Investment Position of Spain in 2021," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue 3/2022.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Patrick Bisciari, 2019. "A survey of the long-term impact of Brexit on the UK and the EU27 economies," Working Paper Research 366, National Bank of Belgium.
    2. Garcia-Lazaro, Aida & Mistak, Jakub & Gulcin Ozkan, F., 2021. "Supply chain networks, trade and the Brexit deal: a general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. L´Hotellerie-Fallois, Pilar & Vergara Caffarelli, Filippo & Geeroms, Hans & de Almeida, Ana M. & Bisciari, Patrick & Byrne, Stephen & Campos, Rodolfo & Conefrey, Thomas & Cappariello, Rita & Damjanovi, 2020. "A review of economic analyses on the potential impact of Brexit," Occasional Paper Series 249, European Central Bank.
    4. Bergin, Adele & Economides, Philip & Garcia-Rodriguez, Abian & Murphy, Gavin, 2019. "Ireland and Brexit: modelling the impact of deal and no-deal scenarios," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    5. Steven Buigut & Burcu Kapar, 2023. "How did Brexit impact EU trade? Evidence from real data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(6), pages 1566-1581, June.
    6. Eduardo Gutiérrez & Aitor Lacuesta & César Martín‐Machuca, 2024. "Brexit: Trade Diversion due to Trade Policy Uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(5), pages 1058-1088, October.
    7. Ana del Río & José Antonio Cuenca, 2020. "Euro area household income and saving during the first wave of the pandemic," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue 4/2020.
    8. Júlia Brunet & Susana Párraga, 2021. "Fiscal rebalancing plans in the medium term: the case of the United Kingdom," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue 2/2021.
    9. Maes, Elisabeth & Dewaelheyns, Nico & Fuss, Catherine & Van Hulle, Cynthia, 2019. "The impact of exporting on financial debt choices of SMEs," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 56-73.
    10. Leibovici, Fernando & Waugh, Michael E., 2019. "International trade and intertemporal substitution," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 158-174.
    11. Marijke J.D. Bos & Gonzague Vannoorenberghe, 2019. "Imported input varieties and product innovation: Evidence from five developing countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 520-548, May.
    12. Demet Yilmazkuday & Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2017. "The role of direct flights in trade costs," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(2), pages 249-270, May.
    13. Craig Macphee & Peter Cook & Wanasin Sattayanuwat, 2013. "Transportation and The International Trade of Eastern and Southern Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 81(2), pages 225-239, June.
    14. Friedrich Schneider & Tilman Brück & Daniel Meierrieks, 2010. "The Economics of Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism: A Survey (Part I)," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1049, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    15. Anderson Michael A. & Schaefer Kurt C. & Smith Stephen L. S., 2013. "Can Price Dispersion Reveal Distance-Related Trade Costs? Evidence from the United States," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 151-173, June.
    16. Joshua Haist & Lukáš Novotný, 2023. "Moving across Borders: The Work Life Experiences of Czech Cross‐border Workers during the COVID‐19 Pandemic," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 124-142, January.
    17. Michael Waugh & Fernando Leibovici, 2010. "Cyclical Fluctuations in International Trade Volumes," 2010 Meeting Papers 1095, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Kazunobu Hayakawa & Kiyoyasu Tanaka & Yasushi Ueki, 2013. "Transport Modal Choice by Multinational Firms: Firm-level Evidence from Southeast Asia," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(4), pages 609-623, December.
    19. Ken Itakura & Hiro Lee, 2023. "Should the United States rejoin the Trans-Pacific trade deal?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 235-255, May.
    20. Gabriel Felbermayr & Wilhelm Kohler & Volker Treier & Heribert Dieter & Christoph Herrmann & Cosimo Beverelli & Simon Neumüller & Robert Teh & Richard Senti & Matthias Lücke & Peter-Tobias Stoll, 2014. "Bali-Abkommen: Wer gewinnt, und wer trägt die Kosten?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(03), pages 03-34, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bde:journl:y:2020:i:12:d:aa:n:40. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ángel Rodríguez. Electronic Dissemination of Information Unit. Research Department. Banco de España (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdegves.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.