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Investor Sentiment and Volatility Prediction of Currencies and Commodities During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author

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  • Thi Hong Van Hoang
  • Qasim Raza Syed

    (Montpellier Business School, 2300 avenue des Moulins, Montpellier, France)

Abstract

In this note, we examine whether the volatility predictive power of investor sentiment for currencies and commodities is sensitive to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Credit Suisse Fear Barometer (CSFB) and the VIX are used to measure investor sentiment. The volatility of seven major currencies, gold, and oil is investigated. Using daily data from 2005 to 2020, we show that VIX is a better predictor than CSFB. However, they have no predictive power during the COVID-19 pandemic period. This may be attributed to the different nature of fear sentiment during the crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Thi Hong Van Hoang & Qasim Raza Syed, 2021. "Investor Sentiment and Volatility Prediction of Currencies and Commodities During the COVID-19 Pandemic," Asian Economics Letters, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 1(4), pages 1-6.
    • Handle: RePEc:ayb:jrnael:25
    DOI: 2021/08/10
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    Cited by:

    1. Siyi Liu & Xin Liu & Chuancai Zhang & Lingli Zhang, 2023. "Institutional and individual investors' short‐term reactions to the COVID‐19 crisis in China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(4), pages 4333-4355, December.
    2. Bing, Tao & Ma, Hongkun, 2021. "COVID-19 pandemic effect on trading and returns: Evidence from the Chinese stock market," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 384-396.
    3. Rao, Yonghui & Hu, Zijiang & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2021. "Do managers hedge disaster risk? Extreme earthquake shock and firm innovations," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    4. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Solikin M. Juhro, 2022. "Stimulating Economic Recovery, Promoting Sustainable- Inclusive Growth: Challenges And Opportunities," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 25(Special I), pages 1-1, March.
    5. Qing Liu & Hosung Son & Woon-Seek Lee, 2024. "The game of lies by stock investors in social media: a study based on city lockdowns in China," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-37, December.
    6. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2022. "Introduction of the special issue on COVID-19 and the financial and economic systems," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-4, December.
    7. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema, 2021. "Do opinion polls on government preference influence stock returns?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    8. I-Chun Tsai, 2024. "Features of different asset types and extreme risk transmission during the COVID-19 crisis," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-42, December.
    9. Li, Sufang & Xu, Qiufan & Lv, Yixue & Yuan, Di, 2022. "Public attention, oil and gold markets during the COVID-19: Evidence from time-frequency analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    10. Hao, Jing & Sun, Ran & An, Jie & Jiao, Anqi, 2024. "Natural disaster and corporate green innovation: Evidence from earthquakes," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
    11. Shashank Kathpal & Asif Akhtar & Asma Zaheer & Mohd Naved Khan, 2021. "Covid-19 and heuristic biases: evidence from India," Journal of Financial Services Marketing, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 26(4), pages 305-316, December.
    12. Devpura, Neluka & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2021. "Bond return predictability: Evidence from 25 OECD countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    13. Chen, Xinxin & Guo, Yanhong & Song, Yingying, 2024. "Multiple time scales investor sentiment impact the stock market index fluctuation: From margin trading business perspective," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(PA).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health

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