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The Time-Varying Impact of Covid-19 on Stock Returns: Evidence on Developed Countries from a Bootstrap Rolling Window Causality Method

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  • Türker Şimşek
  • Oktay Özkan

Abstract

This study examines the time-varying impact of the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) on stock returns by employing the bootstrap rolling window causality test. For this purpose, we use the daily data of COVID-19 confirmed cases and stock returns of six most hard-hit developed countries from the COVID-19 pandemic, namely France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Before investigating the time-varying impact of COVID-19 on stock returns, we first examine the long-run relationship between COVID-19 confirmed cases and stock returns with the Kao panel cointegration method and we find that there exists a long-run relationship between variables. The bootstrap rolling window causality test results show that confirmed cases of COVID-19 have a time-varying impact on stock returns for each country. We also find that among the six developed countries in this study, the impact of daily COVID-19 confirmed cases on stock returns is the least in Germany, while it is the most in Italy. These results are thought to provide important information to market participants.

Suggested Citation

  • Türker Şimşek & Oktay Özkan, 2020. "The Time-Varying Impact of Covid-19 on Stock Returns: Evidence on Developed Countries from a Bootstrap Rolling Window Causality Method," Journal of Research in Economics, Politics & Finance, Ersan ERSOY, vol. 5(SI), pages 1-12.
    • Handle: RePEc:ahs:journl:v:5:y:2020:i:si:p:1-12
    DOI: 10.30784/epfad.781992
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2004. "A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1127-1177, July.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock Return; COVID-19; Pandemic; Kao Panel Cointegration; Bootstrap Rolling Window Causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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