The Elicitation of Subjective Probabilities with Applications in Agricultural Economics
Probability judgements are important components of decision making under uncertainty. In particular, economic decisions can be aided by assuring more accurate assessment of probabilities and more realistic modelling of economic problems through the inclusion of subjective probabilities. The purpose of this paper is to describe the techniques which can be used to elicit subjective probabilities and the ways in which these techniques can be incorporated into agricultural economics research. The review draws from the statistics, psychology, management, operations research, meteorology and economics literature.
Volume (Year): 58 (1990)
Issue (Month): (December)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: AARES Central Office Manager, Crawford School of Public Policy, ANU, Canberra ACT 0200|
Phone: 0409 032 338
Web page: http://www.aares.info/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Francisco, Emilio M. & Anderson, Jock R., 1972.
"Chance And Choice West Of The Darling,"
Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics,
Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 16(02), August.
- Emilio M. Francisco & Jock R. Anderson, 1972. "Chance And Choice West Of The Darling," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 16(2), pages 82-93, 08.
- William E. Griffiths & Jock R. Anderson & K.B. Hamal, 1987.
"Subjective Distributions As Econometric Response Data,"
Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics,
Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 31(2), pages 127-141, 08.
- Griffiths, William E. & Anderson, Jock R. & Hamal, K.B., 1987. "Subjective Distributions As Econometric Response Data," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 31(02), August.
- Tom Knight & S. R. Johnson & Robert M. Finley, 1985. "Farmers' Subjective Probabilities in Northern Thailand: Comment," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 67(1), pages 147-148.
- Anderson, Jock R. & Feder, Gershon, 2007. "Agricultural Extension," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, Elsevier.
- Joseph J. Moder & E. G. Rodgers, 1968. "Judgment Estimates of the Moments of Pert Type Distributions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(2), pages B76-B83, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:remaae:12253. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.