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The Elicitation of Subjective Probabilities with Applications in Agricultural Economics


  • Norris, Patricia E.
  • Kramer, Randall A.


Probability judgements are important components of decision making under uncertainty. In particular, economic decisions can be aided by assuring more accurate assessment of probabilities and more realistic modelling of economic problems through the inclusion of subjective probabilities. The purpose of this paper is to describe the techniques which can be used to elicit subjective probabilities and the ways in which these techniques can be incorporated into agricultural economics research. The review draws from the statistics, psychology, management, operations research, meteorology and economics literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Norris, Patricia E. & Kramer, Randall A., 1990. "The Elicitation of Subjective Probabilities with Applications in Agricultural Economics," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58(02,03), pages 1-21, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:remaae:12253
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.12253

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    1. Griffiths, William E. & Anderson, Jock R. & Hamal, K.B., 1987. "Subjective Distributions As Econometric Response Data," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 31(2), pages 1-15, August.
    2. Anderson, Jock R. & Dillon, John L. & Hardaker, Brian, 1977. "Agricultural Decision Analysis," Monographs: Applied Economics, AgEcon Search, number 288652, October.
    3. Anderson, Jock R. & Feder, Gershon, 2007. "Agricultural Extension," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: Robert Evenson & Prabhu Pingali (ed.),Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 44, pages 2343-2378, Elsevier.
    4. Joseph J. Moder & E. G. Rodgers, 1968. "Judgment Estimates of the Moments of Pert Type Distributions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(2), pages 76-83, October.
    5. Emilio M. Francisco & Jock R. Anderson, 1972. "Chance And Choice West Of The Darling," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 16(2), pages 82-93, August.
    6. Chesley, Gr, 1978. "Subjective-Probability Elicitation Techniques - Performance Comparison," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(2), pages 225-241.
    7. Tom Knight & S. R. Johnson & Robert M. Finley, 1985. "Farmers' Subjective Probabilities in Northern Thailand: Comment," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 67(1), pages 147-148.
    8. Jock R. Anderson, 1973. "Sparse Data, Climatic Variability, and Yield Uncertainty in Response Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 55(1), pages 77-82.
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    Cited by:

    1. Terrance Hurley & Jason Shogren, 2005. "An Experimental Comparison of Induced and Elicited Beliefs," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 169-188, January.
    2. Caroline Roussy & Aude Ridier & Karim Chaïb, 2014. "A methodological proposal to approach farmers’ adoption behavior: stated preferences and perceptions of the innovation," Post-Print hal-01123260, HAL.
    3. Delavande, Adeline & Giné, Xavier & McKenzie, David, 2011. "Measuring subjective expectations in developing countries: A critical review and new evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 151-163, March.
    4. Toland, Gerald Jr & Schmiesing, Brian H. & Black, J. Roy, 1989. "Analysis and Comparison of Alternative Estimations of Crop Yield Probability Distributions," 1989 Annual Meeting, July 9-12, 1989, Coeur d'Alene, Idaho 244976, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    5. Shaik, Saleem & Coble, Keith H. & Knight, Thomas O. & Baquet, Alan E. & Patrick, George F., 2008. "Crop Revenue and Yield Insurance Demand: A Subjective Probability Approach," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 40(3), pages 1-10, December.
    6. Crosthwaite, Jim & McMahon, Ian, 1992. "Economic Issues and the Protection of Endangered Species," 1992 Conference (36th), February 10-13, 1992, Canberra, Australia 146435, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    7. Agarwal, Sandip Kumar, 2017. "Subjective beliefs and decision making under uncertainty in the field," ISU General Staff Papers 201701010800006248, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    8. Milne, Mary & Godden, David P. & Kennedy, John O.S. & Kambuou, Rosa N., 1999. "Evaluating the Benefits of Conserved Crop Germplasm in PNG," 1999 Conference (43th), January 20-22, 1999, Christchurch, New Zealand 124091, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    9. Caroline Roussy & Aude Ridier & Karim Chaïb, 2014. "Adoption d’innovations par les agriculteurs : rôle des perceptions et des préférences," Post-Print hal-01123427, HAL.
    10. Fackler, Paul L. & King, Robert P., 1987. "The Evaluation of Probability Distributions with Special Emphasis on Price Distributions Derived from Option Premiums," Regional Research Projects > 1987: S-180 Annual Meeting, March 22-25, 1987, San Antonio, Texas 272343, Regional Research Projects > S-180: An Economic Analysis of Risk Management Strategies for Agricultural Production Firms.
    11. Agarwal, Sandip & Jacobs, Keri L. & Weninger, Quinn, 2016. "Elicitation of Subjective Beliefs: A Pilot study of farmers' nitrogen management decision-making in Central Iowa," ISU General Staff Papers 201601010800001005, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    12. Hardaker, J. Brian & Lien, Gudbrand, 2010. "Probabilities for decision analysis in agriculture and rural resource economics: The need for a paradigm change," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(6), pages 345-350, July.
    13. Torkamani, Javad, 2006. "Measuring and Incorporating Farmers’ Personal Beliefs and Preferences about Uncertain Events in Decision Analysis: A Stochastic Programming Experiment," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 61(2), pages 1-15.
    14. Clop-Gallart, M. Merce & Juarez-Rubio, Francisco, 2005. "Elicitation of Subjective Crop Yield PDF for DSS Implementation," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24561, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. Simone Cerroni, 2020. "Eliciting farmers’ subjective probabilities, risk, and uncertainty preferences using contextualized field experiments," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(5), pages 707-724, September.
    16. Olabisi, Laura Schmitt & Liverpool-Tasie, Saweda & Olajide, Adeola, 2016. "Towards A Systemic Analysis Of The Impacts Of Climate Change On Agricultural Production In Nigeria," Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Food Security Policy Research Papers 259066, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics, Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Food Security (FSP).
    17. Langrock, Ines & Hurley, Terrance M., 2006. "Risk Preferences, Perceptions and Systematic Biases," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21343, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    18. Sudha Narayanan, 2012. "Safe gambles? Farmer perceptions of transactional certainty and risk-return tradeoffs in contract farming schemes in Southern India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2012-021, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    19. Cerroni, Simone & Shaw, W. Douglass, 2012. "Does climate change information affect stated risks of pine beetle impacts on forests? An application of the exchangeability method," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 72-84.

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