The Elicitation of Subjective Probabilities with Applications in Agricultural Economics
Probability judgements are important components of decision making under uncertainty. In particular, economic decisions can be aided by assuring more accurate assessment of probabilities and more realistic modelling of economic problems through the inclusion of subjective probabilities. The purpose of this paper is to describe the techniques which can be used to elicit subjective probabilities and the ways in which these techniques can be incorporated into agricultural economics research. The review draws from the statistics, psychology, management, operations research, meteorology and economics literature.
Volume (Year): 58 (1990)
Issue (Month): (December)
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- William E. Griffiths & Jock R. Anderson & K.B. Hamal, 1987.
"Subjective Distributions As Econometric Response Data,"
Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics,
Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 31(2), pages 127-141, 08.
- Griffiths, William E. & Anderson, Jock R. & Hamal, K.B., 1987. "Subjective Distributions As Econometric Response Data," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 31(02), August.
- Francisco, Emilio M. & Anderson, Jock R., 1972.
"Chance And Choice West Of The Darling,"
Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics,
Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 16(02), August.
- Emilio M. Francisco & Jock R. Anderson, 1972. "Chance And Choice West Of The Darling," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 16(2), pages 82-93, 08.
- Joseph J. Moder & E. G. Rodgers, 1968. "Judgment Estimates of the Moments of Pert Type Distributions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(2), pages B76-B83, October.
- Anderson, Jock R. & Feder, Gershon, 2007. "Agricultural Extension," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, Elsevier.
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