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Chance And Choice West Of The Darling

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  • Emilio M. Francisco
  • Jock R. Anderson

Abstract

Twenty-one pastoralists in the West Darling region of New South Wales were interviewed to gain an understanding of the attitudes of managers in this high-risk pastoral area to uncertain prospects. It was found that pastoralists had no difficulty in specifying subjective probabilities but in modifying probabilistic information they were conservative relative to the 'correct' revision implied by Bayes' Theorem. All the surveyed pastoralists were non-indifferent to risk, as evidenced by their non-linear utility functions for gains and losses.
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Suggested Citation

  • Emilio M. Francisco & Jock R. Anderson, 1972. "Chance And Choice West Of The Darling," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 16(2), pages 82-93, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ajarec:v:16:y:1972:i:2:p:82-93
    DOI: j.1467-8489.1972.tb00092.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dillon, John L., 1971. "An Expository Review of Bernoullian Decision Theory in Agriculture: Is Utility Futility?," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 39(01), March.
    2. John L. Dillon & J. R. Anderson, 1971. "Allocative Efficiency, Traditional Agriculture, and Risk," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 53(1), pages 26-32.
    3. R. R. Officer & A. N. Halter, 1968. "Utility Analysis in a Practical Setting," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 50(2), pages 257-277.
    4. D. B. Williams, 1951. "Price Expectations and Reactions to Uncertainty by Farmers in Illinois," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 20-39.
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    Cited by:

    1. Clop-Gallart, M. Merce & Juarez-Rubio, Francisco, 2008. "Shape Persistence in Elicited Subjective Crop Yield Probability Density Functions," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44128, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Freebairn, John W., 1973. "Some Estimates of Supply and Inventory Response Functions for the Cattle and Sheep Sector of New South Wales," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 41, September.
    3. Nelson, A. Gene, 1980. "The Case For And Components Of A Probabilistic Agricultural Outlook Program," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 5(02), December.
    4. Anderson, Jock R., 1979. "Impacts of Climatic Variability in Australian Agriculture: A Review," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 47(03), December.
    5. Chudleigh, Peter D. & Filan, S.J., 1972. "A Simulation Model Of An Arid Zone Sheep Property," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 16(03), December.
    6. Throsby, C.D., 1973. "New Methodologies in Agricultural Production Economics: a Review," 1973 Conference, August 19-30, 1973, São Paulo, Brazil 181385, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Mill, Stephen J. & Longworth, John W., 1975. "Stochastic-Computerized-Activity-Budgeting For Sheep Enterprises," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 19(02), August.
    8. Norris, Patricia E. & Kramer, Randall A., 1990. "The Elicitation of Subjective Probabilities with Applications in Agricultural Economics," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58, December.
    9. Stent, W.R., 1976. "Critique Of The Methodology Of Australian Agricultural Economics," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 20(01), April.
    10. Anderson, Jock R. & Hardaker, J. Brian, 1972. "An Appreciation of Decision Analysis in Management," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 40(04), December.
    11. Tisdell, Clement A., 1973. "Certainty Equivalence and Bias in the Management of Production," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 41(04), December.
    12. Easter, Christopher D. & Paris, Quirino, 1983. "Supply Response With Stochastic Technology And Prices In Australia'S Rural Export Industries," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 27(01), April.
    13. Wall, Charles A. & Fisher, Brian S., 1988. "Supply Response and the Theory of Production and Profit Functions," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 56(03), December.
    14. Gomez-Limon, Jose Antonio & Riesgo, Laura & Arriaza Balmón, Manuel, 2002. "Agricultural Risk Aversion Revisited: A Multicriteria Decision-Making Approach," 2002 International Congress, August 28-31, 2002, Zaragoza, Spain 24827, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. Gomez-Limon, Jose A. & Arriaza, Manuel & Riesgo, Laura, 2003. "An MCDM analysis of agricultural risk aversion," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 151(3), pages 569-585, December.

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