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Aggregated Personalistic Beliefs on Yields of Selected Crops Estimated Using ARIMA Processes

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  • David A. Bessler

Abstract

This study investigates the empirical relationships between the aggregated elicited probability distributions from individual farmers on yields of three 1977 California field crops and their data-based representations. The comparison suggests that for expected values, the ARIMA representations agree with the aggregated elicited distributions. However, for higher moments, the ARIMA processes do much poorer in representing the elicited distributions.

Suggested Citation

  • David A. Bessler, 1980. "Aggregated Personalistic Beliefs on Yields of Selected Crops Estimated Using ARIMA Processes," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 62(4), pages 666-674.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:62:y:1980:i:4:p:666-674.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1239764
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    1. Toland, Gerald Jr & Schmiesing, Brian H. & Black, J. Roy, 1989. "Analysis and Comparison of Alternative Estimations of Crop Yield Probability Distributions," WAEA/ WFEA Conference Archive (1929-1995) 244976, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    2. Burton, Diana M. & Love, H. Alan, 1996. "A Review of Alternative Expectations Regimes in Commodity Markets: Specification, Estimation, and Hypothesis Testing Using Structural Models," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 213-231, October.
    3. Buzby, Jean & Kenkel, Phil L. & Skees, Jerry R. & Pease, James W. & Benson, Fred J., 1990. "A Comparison of Subjective and Historical Yield Distributions With Implications For Multiple Peril Crop Insurance," 1990 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Vancouver, Canada 270874, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    4. Ford, Beth Pride & Musser, Wesley N. & Yonkers, Robert D., 1993. "Measuring Historical Risk in Quarterly Milk Prices," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 20-26, April.
    5. Antonovitz, Frances & Roe, Terry, 1986. "A Theoretical and Empirical Approach to the Value of Information in Risky Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(1), pages 105-114, February.
    6. Buccola, Steven T., 1982. "Portfolio Selection Under Exponential And Quadratic Utility," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 7(1), pages 1-10, July.
    7. Nakamoto, Stuart T. & Halloran, John M. & Yanagida, John F. & Leung, PingSun, 1989. "A Market Example And Economic Evaluation Of Information And Price Uncertainty," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 20(2), pages 1-8, September.
    8. Kesavan, T. & Aradhyula, Satheesh V. & Johnson, Stanley R., 1992. "Dynamics And Price Volatility In Farm-Retail Livestock Price Relationships," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 17(2), pages 1-14, December.
    9. Ker, Alan P. & Coble, Keith H., 1998. "On Choosing A Base Coverage Level For Multiple Peril Crop Insurance Contracts," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(2), pages 1-18, December.
    10. Conradt, Sarah & Bokusheva, Raushan & Finger, Robert & Kussaiynov, Talgat, 2014. "Yield Trend Estimation in the Presence of Farm Heterogeneity and Non-linear Technological Change," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universitaat zu Berlin, vol. 53(2), pages 1-20, May.
    11. Dismukes, Robert & Allen, P. Geoffrey & Morzuch, Bernard J., 1989. "Participation In Multiple-Peril Crop Insurance: Risk Assessments And Risk Preferences Of Cranberry Growers," Northeastern Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 18(2), pages 1-9, October.
    12. le Bris, David & Goetzmann, William N. & Pouget, Sébastien, 2019. "The present value relation over six centuries: The case of the Bazacle company," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 248-265.
    13. Norris, Patricia E. & Kramer, Randall A., 1990. "The Elicitation of Subjective Probabilities with Applications in Agricultural Economics," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58(02-03), pages 1-21, December.
    14. Mui, H.W. & Bradford, Garnett L. & Ali, Mukhtar M., 1986. "Modeling The Demand For Durable Inputs: Distributed Lags And Causality," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 18(2), pages 1-8, December.
    15. Gomez-Limon, Jose A. & Arriaza, Manuel & Riesgo, Laura, 2003. "An MCDM analysis of agricultural risk aversion," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 151(3), pages 569-585, December.
    16. Antle, John M. & Goodger, William A., 1983. "Measuring Stochastic Technology: The Case Of Tulare Milk Production," Working Papers 225708, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    17. Umarov, Alisher & Sherrick, Bruce J., 2005. "Farmers' Subjective Yield Distributions: Calibration and Implications for Crop Insurance Valuation," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19396, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    18. David le Bris & William N. Goetzmann & Sébastien Pouget, 2014. "Testing Asset Pricing Theory on Six Hundred Years of Stock Returns: Prices and Dividends for the Bazacle Company from 1372 to 1946," NBER Working Papers 20199, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Clop-Gallart, M. Merce & Juarez-Rubio, Francisco, 2005. "Elicitation of Subjective Crop Yield PDF for DSS Implementation," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24561, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    20. Reid, Donald W. & Tew, Bernard V., 1987. "An Evaluation Of Expected Value And Expected Value-Variance Criteria In Achieving Risk Efficiency In Crop Selection," Northeastern Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 16(2), pages 1-9, October.
    21. Egelkraut, Thorsten M. & Garcia, Philip & Pennings, Joost M.E. & Sherrick, Bruce J., 2006. "Producers' Yield and Yield Risk: Perceptions versus Reality and Crop Insurance Use," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21369, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    22. Hong Fu & Yuehua Zhang & Yinuo An & Li Zhou & Yanling Peng & Rong Kong & Calum G. Turvey, 2022. "Subjective and objective risk perceptions and the willingness to pay for agricultural insurance: evidence from an in-the-field choice experiment in rural China," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 47(1), pages 98-121, March.
    23. Sarwar, Ghulam & Anderson, Dale G., 1986. "Impact of the Staggers Act on variability and uncertainty of farm product prices," Transportation Research Forum Proceedings 1980s 311827, Transportation Research Forum.

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