IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/arerjl/31635.html

Measuring Historical Risk In Quarterly Milk Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Ford, Beth Pride
  • Musser, Wesley N.
  • Yonkers, Robert D.

Abstract

Various methods have been used to estimate risk indices with historical data. An industry perception of increasing milk price risk over time provides a standard for evaluating several techniques used to measure historical risk. Risk measures from a regression model and an ARIMA model were consistent with the perception of increasing risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Ford, Beth Pride & Musser, Wesley N. & Yonkers, Robert D., 1993. "Measuring Historical Risk In Quarterly Milk Prices," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 22(01), pages 1-7, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:arerjl:31635
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.31635
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/31635/files/22010020.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.31635?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, 1991. "Quantifying Long Run Agricultural Risks And Evaluating Farmer Responses To Risk," 1991 Quantifying Long Run Agricultural Risks and Evaluating Farmer Responses to Risk Meeting, March 17-20, 1991, San Antonio, Texas 271545, Regional Research Projects > S-232: Quantifying Long Run Agricultural Risks and Evaluating Farmer Responses to Risk.
    2. Wesley N. Musser & Kostas G. Stamoulis, 1981. "Evaluating the Food and Agriculture Act of 1977 with Firm Quadratic Risk Programming," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 63(3), pages 447-456.
    3. Young, Douglas L., "undated". "Evaluating Procedures For Computing Objective Risk From Historical Time Series," Risk Analysis in Agriculture: Research and Educational Developments, January 16-18, 1980, Tucson, Arizona 271471, Regional Research Projects > W-149: An Economic Evaluation of Managing Market Risks in Agriculture.
    4. Fackler, Paul L. & Young, Douglas L., 1991. "Notes on Modeling Regional Crop Yields," 1991 Quantifying Long Run Agricultural Risks and Evaluating Farmer Responses to Risk Meeting, March 17-20, 1991, San Antonio, Texas 271549, Regional Research Projects > S-232: Quantifying Long Run Agricultural Risks and Evaluating Farmer Responses to Risk.
    5. Peter Berck, 1981. "Portfolio Theory and the Demand for Futures: The Case of California Cotton," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 63(3), pages 466-474.
    6. Franzmann, John R., 1971. "Cattle Cycles Revisited," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 3(01), pages 1-8, December.
    7. Scott M. Swinton & Robert P. King, 1991. "Evaluating Robust Regression Techniques for Detrending Crop Yield Data with Nonnormal Errors," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 73(2), pages 446-451.
    8. Fred C. White & Wesley N. Musser, 1980. "Inflation Effects on Farm Financial Management," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 62(5), pages 1060-1064.
    9. Hammida, Mustapha & Eidman, Vernon R., 1991. "Livestock And Poultry Production Risk In The United States," Staff Papers 14016, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    10. Michele C. Marra & Gerald A. Carlson, 1990. "The Decision to Double Crop: An Application of Expected Utility Theory Using Stein's Theorem," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 72(2), pages 337-345.
    11. David A. Bessler, 1980. "Aggregated Personalistic Beliefs on Yields of Selected Crops Estimated Using ARIMA Processes," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 62(4), pages 666-674.
    12. Persaud, Tillak & Mapp, Harry P., "undated". "Analysis Of Alternative Production And Marketing Strategies In Southwestern Oklahoma: A Motad Approach," Risk Analysis in Agriculture: Research and Educational Developments, January 16-18, 1980, Tucson, Arizona 271566, Regional Research Projects > W-149: An Economic Evaluation of Managing Market Risks in Agriculture.
    13. Franzmann, John R., 1971. "Cattle Cycles Revisited," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(1), pages 69-76, December.
    14. Alan Collins & Wesley N. Musser & Robert Mason, 1991. "Prospect Theory and Risk Preferences of Oregon Seed Producers," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 73(2), pages 429-435.
    15. Adams, Richard M. & Menkhaus, Dale J. & Woolery, Bruce A., 1980. "Alternative Parameter Specification In E, V Analysis: Implications For Farm Level Decision Making," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 5(01), pages 1-8, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Maynard, Leigh J. & Harper, Jayson K. & Hoffman, Lynn D., 1997. "Impact of Risk Preferences on Crop Rotation Choice," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(1), pages 106-114, April.
    2. Hranaiova, Jana & Stefanou, Spiro E., 2002. "Scale, productivity growth and risk response under uncertainty," Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales, Spanish Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 2(02), pages 1-19.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:ags:rrsr94:307862 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Ford, Beth Pride & Musser, Wesley N., 1995. "A Comparison of Nominal and Real Historical Risk Measures," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 669-685, December.
    3. Ford, Beth Pride & Musser, Wesley N. & Yonkers, Robert D., "undated". "Inflation and Measurement of Historical Risk," Staff Paper Series 256844, Pennsylvania State University, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology.
    4. William T. McSweeny & David E. Kenyon & Randall A. Kramer, 1987. "Toward an Appropriate Measure of Uncertainty in a Risk Programming Model," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 69(1), pages 87-96.
    5. Helmers, Glenn A. & Atwood, Joseph & Watts, Myles J. & Held, Larry J., 1986. "Fixity and Capital Costing Assumptions in Agricultural Risk Research With Implications to Livestock," Regional Research Projects > 1986: S-180 Annual Meeting, March 23-26, 1986, Tampa, Florida 271999, Regional Research Projects > S-180: An Economic Analysis of Risk Management Strategies for Agricultural Production Firms.
    6. Mims, Anne M. & Duffy, Patricia A. & Young, George J., 1989. "Effects Of Alternative Acreage Restriction Provisions On Alabama Cotton Farms," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 21(2), pages 1-10, December.
    7. Myers, Walter M., 1972. "A Spectral Decomposition of Slaughter Steer Prices and Its Forecasting Implications," WAEA/ WFEA Conference Archive (1929-1995) 323737, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    8. Stockton, Matthew C. & Van Tassell, Larry W., 2007. "The Cattle Price Cycle: An Exploration in Simulation," 2007 Conference, April 16-17, 2007, Chicago, Illinois 37564, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    9. Perry, Gregory M. & Rister, M. Edward & Richardson, James W. & Bessler, David A., 1989. "Incorporating Government Program Provisions into a Mean-Variance Framework," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(2), pages 95-105, December.
    10. Falatoonzadeh, Hamid & Conner, J. Richard & Pope, Rulon D., 1985. "Risk Management Strategies To Reduce Net Income Variability For Farmers," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 17(01), pages 1-14, July.
    11. Conradt, Sarah & Bokusheva, Raushan & Finger, Robert & Kussaiynov, Talgat, 2014. "Yield Trend Estimation in the Presence of Farm Heterogeneity and Non-linear Technological Change," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universitaat zu Berlin, vol. 53(2), pages 1-20, May.
    12. repec:ags:aesdoc:202441 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Arriaza Balmón, Manuel & Gomez-Limon, Jose Antonio, 2002. "Comparative Performance of Selected Mathematical Programming Models," 2002 International Congress, August 28-31, 2002, Zaragoza, Spain 24792, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    14. Matthew Stuart & Cindy Yu & David A. Hennessy, 2023. "The Impact of Stocks on Correlations between Crop Yields and Prices and on Revenue Insurance Premiums using Semiparametric Quantile Regression," Papers 2308.11805, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    15. Bown, Anthony & Ortmann, Gerald & Oarroch, Mark, 1999. "Commercial Farmers' Choice Amongst Maize Marketing Alternatives in South Africa," 12th Congress, Durban, South Africa, July 18-24, 1999 346528, International Farm Management Association.
    16. Robertson, J. Douglas & Musser, Wesley N. & Tew, Bernard V., 1982. "Lease Versus Purchase of a Center-Pivot Irrigation System: A Georgia Example," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 37-42, December.
    17. Burton, Diana M. & Love, H. Alan, 1996. "A Review of Alternative Expectations Regimes in Commodity Markets: Specification, Estimation, and Hypothesis Testing Using Structural Models," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 213-231, October.
    18. Southern Regional Research, 1988. "Modelling Farm Program-Crop Mix Decisions Under Risk: Discussion," Regional Research Projects > 1988: S-180 Annual Meeting, March 20-23, 1988, Savannah, Georgia 272785, Regional Research Projects > S-180: An Economic Analysis of Risk Management Strategies for Agricultural Production Firms.
    19. Baek, Yae In & Cho, Jin Seo & Phillips, Peter C.B., 2015. "Testing linearity using power transforms of regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 376-384.
    20. O'Brien, Daniel M. & Woolverton, Mike & Maddy, Lucas & Pozo, Veronica F. & Roe, Joshua D. & Tajchman, Jenna R. & Yeager, Elizabeth A., 2008. "A Case Study of the Impact of Bioenergy Development Upon Crop Production, Livestock Feeding, and Water Resource Usage in Kansas," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6432, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    21. Chalfant, James A. & Callender, Robert N. & Subramanian, Shankar, "undated". "The Mean And Variance Of The Mean-Variance Decision Rule," Department of Economics and Business - Archive 259434, North Carolina State University, Department of Economics.
    22. Antonovitz, Frances & Roe, Terry, 1986. "A Theoretical and Empirical Approach to the Value of Information in Risky Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(1), pages 105-114, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:arerjl:31635. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nareaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.