Exchange Rate Volatility and Aggregate Exports Demand through ARDL Framework: An Experience from Pakistan Economy
This study estimates the exports demand for Pakistan by employing Autoregressive Distributed Lag model and using quarterly data for the period 1982Q1-2008Q2. The paper seeks to examine the long run as well as short run impact of real effective exchange rate volatility along with foreign real income, relative price of exports and real effective exchange rate on demand for exports. The empirical results reveal that demand for real exports are co-integrated with real foreign income, relative price of aggregate exports, real effective exchange rate and volatility of real effective exchange rate. Real foreign income is found to have a significant positive effect on exports demand, suggests that Pakistanâ€™s aggregate exports demand depend significantly on its trading partnerâ€™s income. The relative price of exports carries significant negative coefficient suggesting that increase in relative price of exports may decrease the level of exports demand in the long run. The volatility of real effective exchange rate, has adversely affect the Pakistanâ€™s aggregate exports in the long run. The result further demonstrates that real effective exchange rate volatility and relative price of exports ranger causes aggregate exports in the short run.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- M. Ali Kemal, 2005. "Exchange Rate Instability and Trade. The Case of Pakistan," PIDE-Working Papers 2005:186, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
- Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107, December.
- Wojciech W. Charemza & Derek F. Deadman, 1992. "New Directions In Econometric Practice," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 84, June.
- Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2000.
"Computer Automation of General-to-Specific Model Selection Procedures,"
Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers
0411, Econometric Society.
- Krolzig, Hans-Martin & Hendry, David F., 2001. "Computer automation of general-to-specific model selection procedures," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 831-866, June.
- David Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2000. "Computer Automation of General-to-Specific Model Selection Procedures," Economics Series Working Papers 3, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Hans-Martin Krolzig & David Hendry, 1999. "Computer Automation of General-to-Specific Model Selection Procedures," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 314, Society for Computational Economics.
- Graham Bird & Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2001. "Banks, Financial Liberalisation and Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(7), pages 889-910, 07.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
EERI Research Paper Series
EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Raymond Chi Wing Ng, 2002. "Long-Run Demand for Money in Hong Kong: An Application of the ARDL Model," International Journal of Business and Economics, College of Business and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 1(2), pages 147-155, August.
- Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S, 1978. "The Supply and Demand for Exports: A Simultaneous Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 275-86, May.
- Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Bohl, Martin T., 2000. "German monetary unification and the stability of the German M3 money demand function," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 203-208, February.
- Arize, Augustine C & Osang, Thomas & Slottje, Daniel J, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Volatility and Foreign Trade: Evidence from Thirteen LDC's," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 10-17, January.
- Kristin J. Forbes, 2002.
"Are Trade Linkages Important Determinants of Country Vulnerability to Crises?,"
in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 77-132
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kristin J. Forbes, 2001. "Are Trade Linkages Important Determinants of Country Vulnerability to Crises?," NBER Working Papers 8194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ian Marsh & Stephen Tokarick, 1996. "An assessment of three measures of competitiveness," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 132(4), pages 700-722, December.
- Reinhart, Carmen, 1995.
"Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade: Evidence from Developing Countries,"
6974, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carmen M. Reinhart, 1995. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 290-312, June.
- Reinhart, Carmen, 1994. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade," MPRA Paper 13708, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carmen Reinhart, 1994. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade; Evidence From Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 94/140, International Monetary Fund.
- SaangJoon Baak, 2004. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade among the Asia Pacific Countries," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 724, Econometric Society.
- Daria Taglioni, 2002. "Exchange Rate Volatility as a Barrier to Trade: New Methodologies and Recent Evidence," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 89-90, pages 227-259.
- Khalid Mustafa & Mohammed Nishat, 2004. "Volatility of Exchange Rate and Export Growth in Pakistan: The Structure and Interdependence in Regional Markets," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 43(4), pages 813-828.
- M. Kabir Hassan & David R. Tufte, 1998. "Exchange rate volatility and aggregate export growth in Bangladesh," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 189-201, February.
- Hendry, David F., 1979. "The behaviour of inconsistent instrumental variables estimators in dynamic systems with autocorrelated errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 295-314, February.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
- Doroodian, K., 1999. "Does exchange rate volatility deter international trade in developing countries?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 465-474.
- repec:kap:iaecre:v:9:y:2003:i:1:p:7-19 is not listed on IDEAS
- Augustine Arize & John Malindretos & Krishna Kasibhatla, 2003. "Does exchange-rate volatility depress export flows: The case of LDCs," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 9(1), pages 7-19, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:reapec:143465. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.