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Expert Elicitation for Assessing Agricultural Technology Adoption: The Case of Improved Rice Varieties in South Asian Countries


  • Tsusaka, Takuji W.
  • Velasco, Ma. Lourdes
  • Yamano, Takashi
  • Pandey, Sushil


Cultivar-specific adoption information is imperative for agricultural research organizations to make strategic research plans for crop-genetic development. However, such data are often unavailable in developing countries or obsolete and unreliable even when they exist. A budget-friendly and reliable method of tracking and monitoring varietal adoptions is highly desired. In this paper, we employ expert elicitation (EE) as a method to obtain estimates of modern variety (MV) adoption of rice in Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka. EE is conducted by comparing information from EE assessment and household surveys. We found that organized panels of agricultural experts can provide reliable estimates of the area planted to MVs. In addition, cultivar-specific adoption estimates are reliable for dominant varieties. To some extent, EE estimates are more precise when estimates are calculated by aggregating disaggregate-level elicitations than by directly obtaining aggregate-level elicitations. Furthermore, the household surveys reveal that it takes approximately a decade for a new variety to be adopted by a significant number of farmers.

Suggested Citation

  • Tsusaka, Takuji W. & Velasco, Ma. Lourdes & Yamano, Takashi & Pandey, Sushil, 2015. "Expert Elicitation for Assessing Agricultural Technology Adoption: The Case of Improved Rice Varieties in South Asian Countries," Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development, Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (SEARCA), vol. 12(1), pages 1-15, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:phajad:243237
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.243237

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Keijiro OTSUKA & Kaliappa P. KALIRAJAN, 2006. "Rice Green Revolution In Asia And Its Transferability To Africa: An Introduction," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 44(2), pages 107-122, June.
    2. Rowe, Gene & Wright, George, 1999. "The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 353-375, October.
    3. Flores, Benito E, 1986. "A pragmatic view of accuracy measurement in forecasting," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 93-98.
    4. Norman Dalkey & Olaf Helmer, 1963. "An Experimental Application of the DELPHI Method to the Use of Experts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(3), pages 458-467, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nakano, Yuko & Tsusaka, Takuji W. & Aida, Takeshi & Pede, Valerien O., 2018. "Is farmer-to-farmer extension effective? The impact of training on technology adoption and rice farming productivity in Tanzania," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 336-351.
    2. Pepijn Schreinemachers & Teresa Sequeros & Saima Rani & Md. Abdur Rashid & Nithya Vishwanath Gowdru & Muhammad Shahrukh Rahman & Mohammed Razu Ahmed & Ramakrishnan Madhavan Nair, 2019. "Counting the beans: quantifying the adoption of improved mungbean varieties in South Asia and Myanmar," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(3), pages 623-634, June.
    3. Pavithra, S. & Mittal, S. & Bhat, S.A. & Birthal, P.S. & Shah, S.A. & Hariharan, V., 2017. "Spatial and Temporal Diversity in Adoption of Modern Wheat Varieties in India," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 30(1), June.

    More about this item


    Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Production Economics;

    JEL classification:

    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q16 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - R&D; Agricultural Technology; Biofuels; Agricultural Extension Services


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