IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Model Selection for Discrete Dependent Variables: Better Statistics for Better Steaks

Author Info

Listed author(s):
  • Norwood, F. Bailey
  • Lusk, Jayson L.
  • Brorsen, B. Wade

Abstract

Little research has been conducted on evaluating out-of sample forecasts of discrete dependent variables. This study describes the large and small sample properties of two forecast evaluation techniques for discrete dependent variables: receiver-operator curves and out-of-sample log-likelihood functions. The methods are shown to provide identical model rankings in large samples and similar rankings in small samples. The likelihood function method is better at detecting forecast accuracy in small samples. By improving forecasts of fed cattle quality grades, the forecast evaluation methods are shown to increase cattle marketing revenues by $2.59/head.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30912
Download Restriction: no

Article provided by Western Agricultural Economics Association in its journal Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

Volume (Year): 29 (2004)
Issue (Month): 03 (December)
Pages:

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:30912
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://waeaonline.org/

More information through EDIRC

Keywords: discrete dependent variables; forecasting; likelihood functions; model selection; out-of-sample; quality grades; receiver-operator curves; Agribusiness;

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Loureiro, Maria L. & Hine, Susan, 2002. "Discovering Niche Markets: A Comparison of Consumer Willingness to Pay for Local (Colorado Grown), Organic, and GMO-Free Products," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(03), pages 477-487, December.
  2. Jayson L. Lusk & Randall Little & Allen Williams & John Anderson & Blair McKinley, 2003. "Utilizing Ultrasound Technology to Improve Livestock Marketing Decisions," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 25(1), pages 203-217.
  3. John B. Loomis & Lucas S. Bair & Armando González-Cabán, 2002. "Language-Related Differences in a Contingent Valuation Study: English Versus Spanish," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(4), pages 1091-1102.
  4. Bailey Norwood & Matthew C. Roberts & Jayson L. Lusk, 2004. "Ranking Crop Yield Models Using Out-of-Sample Likelihood Functions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(4), pages 1032-1043.
  5. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
  6. M. K. Haener & P. C. Boxall & W. L. Adamowicz, 2001. "Modeling Recreation Site Choice: Do Hypothetical Choices Reflect Actual Behavior?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(3), pages 629-642.
  7. Koontz, Stephen R. & Hoag, Dana L. & Walker, Jodine L. & Brethour, John R., 2000. "Returns To Market Timing And Sorting Of Fed Cattle," 2000 Conference, April 17-18 2000, Chicago, Illinois 18930, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  8. Jeffrey H. Dorfman, 1998. "Bayesian Composite Qualitative Forecasting: Hog Prices Again," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(3), pages 543-551.
  9. Ashley, Richard, 1998. "A new technique for postsample model selection and validation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 647-665, May.
  10. Terry L. Kastens & Gary W. Brester, 1996. "Model Selection and Forecasting Ability of Theory-Constrained Food Demand Systems," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(2), pages 301-312.
  11. Norwood, F. Bailey & Ferrier, Peyton Michael & Lusk, Jayson L., 2001. "Model Selection Criteria Using Likelihood Functions And Out-Of-Sample Performance," 2001 Conference, April 23-24, 2001, St. Louis, Missouri 18947, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

as
in new window


Cited by:

  1. Gallardo, R. Karina & Wang, Qianqian, 2013. "Willingness to Pay for Pesticides' Environmental Features and Social Desirability Bias: The Case of Apple and Pear Growers," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 38(1), April.
  2. Dharmasena, Senarath & Bessler, David & Capps, Oral. Jr, 2016. "On the Evaluation of Probability Forecasts: An Application to Qualitative Choice Models," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, 2016, Boston, Massachusetts 235424, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  3. Brorsen, B. Wade, 2009. "Research: Are We Valuing the Right Stuff?," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(1), April.
  4. Andreas C. Drichoutis & Jayson L. Lusk, 2016. "What can multiple price lists really tell us about risk preferences?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 89-106, December.
  5. Lusk, Jayson L. & Crespi, John M. & McFadden, Brandon R. & Cherry, J. Bradley C. & Martin, Laura & Bruce, Amanda, 2016. "Neural antecedents of a random utility model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 132(PA), pages 93-103.
  6. Chang, Jae Bong & Lusk, Jayson L., 2008. "Concerns for Fairness and Preferences for Organic Food," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6414, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  7. Norwood, F. Bailey, 2005. "Can Calibration Reconcile Stated and Observed Preferences?," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 37(01), April.
  8. KIANI, Khurshid M., 2007. "Business Cycle Asymmetries In Stock Returns: Robust Evidence," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(2), pages 99-120.
  9. Drichoutis, Andreas & Lusk, Jayson, 2012. "Judging statistical models of individual decision making under risk using in- and out-of-sample criteria," MPRA Paper 38951, University Library of Munich, Germany.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Access and download statistics

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:30912. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.