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Entry of Alternative Fuels in a Volatile U.S. Gasoline Market

Author

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  • Vedenov, Dmitry V.
  • Duffield, James A.
  • Wetzstein, Michael E.

Abstract

Dramatic increases in levels and volatility of gasoline prices observed in recent years may create market incentives for adoption of alternative fuels characterized by lower price volatility. This hypothesis is investigated by applying the real-options pricing approach to develop optimal thresholds for switching from conventional gasoline to alternative fuels such as ethanol blends. The main result of the paper is that given the historical price patterns of conventional gasoline and ethanol, switching to ethanol blends is an economically sound decision provided this does not decrease efficiency of the vehicle. Analysis of data subsamples during the periods of higher volatility of gasoline prices (Gulf War and War on Terrorism) provides even stronger support for this result.

Suggested Citation

  • Vedenov, Dmitry V. & Duffield, James A. & Wetzstein, Michael E., 2006. "Entry of Alternative Fuels in a Volatile U.S. Gasoline Market," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 31(01), April.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:10144
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter Ferderer, J., 1996. "Oil price volatility and the macroeconomy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-26.
    2. Kneller, Richard & Young, Garry, 2001. "Business Cycle Volatility, Uncertainty and Long-Run Growth," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 69(5), pages 534-552, Special I.
    3. Robert S. Pindyck, 1999. "The Long-Run Evolutions of Energy Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-27.
    4. MacKinnon, James G, 1994. "Approximate Asymptotic Distribution Functions for Unit-Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 167-176, April.
    5. Sadorsky, Perry, 1999. "Oil price shocks and stock market activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 449-469, October.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Serra, Teresa & Gil, José M., 2012. "Biodiesel as a motor fuel price stabilization mechanism," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 689-698.
    2. Du, Xiaodong, 2008. "Essays on land cash rents, biofuels, and their interactions," ISU General Staff Papers 200801010800001979, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Xian, Hui & Colson, Gregory & Mei, Bin & Wetzstein, Michael E., 2015. "Co-firing coal with wood pellets for U.S. electricity generation: A real options analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 106-116.
    4. Du, Xiaodong & Hayes, Dermot J., 2009. "The impact of ethanol production on US and regional gasoline markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3227-3234, August.
    5. Calum G. Turvey, 2010. "Biography: Kiyosi Itô and his influence on the study of agricultural finance and economics," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 70(1), pages 5-20, May.
    6. Xiaodong Du and Lihong Lu McPhail, 2012. "Inside the Black Box: the Price Linkage and Transmission between Energy and Agricultural Markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    7. Serra, Teresa & Zilberman, David, 2013. "Biofuel-related price transmission literature: A review," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 141-151.
    8. repec:use:tkiwps:11 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Serra, Teresa, 2012. "Biofuel-related price volatility literature: a review and new approaches," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126057, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Arjunan, Subramanian & Moir, Christopher & Kirwan, Kerry & Pink, David, 2010. "Thegreening Of ‘Green’ Technology: Adoption Of Bio-Plastic Pla," 14th ICABR Conference, June 16-18, 2010, Ravello, Italy 187976, International Consortium on Applied Bioeconomy Research (ICABR).
    11. Peter Maniloff & Sul-Ki Lee, 2015. "The Ethanol Mandate and Corn Price Volatility," Working Papers 2015-01, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business.

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