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Entry of Alternative Fuels in a Volatile U.S. Gasoline Market

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  • Vedenov, Dmitry V.
  • Duffield, James A.
  • Wetzstein, Michael E.

Abstract

The hypothesis underlying this analysis is that in the presence of volatile gasoline prices competitive market forces will yield alternative, less volatile fuels as substitutes. A real-option pricing approach was employed for this analysis by modeling investment under uncertainty for the case of comparing stochastic prices of substitute commodities. Based on real options, threshold decision rules were developed for the adoption of portfolio fuels such as ethanol and conventional gasoline blends. Considering this portfolio effect, the benefit-to-cost ratios are above four for the alternative blends under varying discount rates and time horizons. This provides a strong indication that consumer demand exists for these portfolio fuels. Competitive markets will then respond to this consumer demand yielding less volatile portfolio fuels and incorporating ethanol into domestic fuel mix.

Suggested Citation

  • Vedenov, Dmitry V. & Duffield, James A. & Wetzstein, Michael E., 2005. "Entry of Alternative Fuels in a Volatile U.S. Gasoline Market," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19182, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea05:19182
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter Ferderer, J., 1996. "Oil price volatility and the macroeconomy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-26.
    2. Kneller, Richard & Young, Garry, 2001. "Business Cycle Volatility, Uncertainty and Long-Run Growth," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 69(5), pages 534-552, Special I.
    3. Robert S. Pindyck, 1999. "The Long-Run Evolutions of Energy Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-27.
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    Cited by:

    1. Serra, Teresa & Gil, José M., 2012. "Biodiesel as a motor fuel price stabilization mechanism," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 689-698.
    2. Du, Xiaodong, 2008. "Essays on land cash rents, biofuels, and their interactions," ISU General Staff Papers 200801010800001979, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Xian, Hui & Colson, Gregory & Mei, Bin & Wetzstein, Michael E., 2015. "Co-firing coal with wood pellets for U.S. electricity generation: A real options analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 106-116.
    4. Du, Xiaodong & Hayes, Dermot J., 2009. "The impact of ethanol production on US and regional gasoline markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3227-3234, August.
    5. Calum G. Turvey, 2010. "Biography: Kiyosi Itô and his influence on the study of agricultural finance and economics," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 70(1), pages 5-20, May.
    6. Xiaodong Du and Lihong Lu McPhail, 2012. "Inside the Black Box: the Price Linkage and Transmission between Energy and Agricultural Markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    7. Serra, Teresa & Zilberman, David, 2013. "Biofuel-related price transmission literature: A review," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 141-151.
    8. repec:use:tkiwps:11 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Serra, Teresa, 2012. "Biofuel-related price volatility literature: a review and new approaches," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126057, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Arjunan, Subramanian & Moir, Christopher & Kirwan, Kerry & Pink, David, 2010. "Thegreening Of ‘Green’ Technology: Adoption Of Bio-Plastic Pla," 14th ICABR Conference, June 16-18, 2010, Ravello, Italy 187976, International Consortium on Applied Bioeconomy Research (ICABR).
    11. Peter Maniloff & Sul-Ki Lee, 2015. "The Ethanol Mandate and Corn Price Volatility," Working Papers 2015-01, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business.

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