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A Cohort Approach for Predicting Future Eating Habits: The Case of At-Home Consumption of Fresh Fish and Meat in an Aging Japanese Society

  • Mori, Hiroshi
  • Clason, Dennis L.
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    Due to a rapidly aging society, stagnating per capita income and rather stable prices, traditional economic analyses methods lost their power in the 1990s to predict future food product consumption in Japan. This study, in part, remedies this problem by projecting future consumption of selected products, using a cohort approach with economic factors tentatively set aside. Per capita consumption of individual household members by age was derived by incorporating family age composition into household data classified by age groups of household head (HH). Individual consumption estimates were decomposed into age, cohort and time effects, using the Nakamura's Bayesian cohort model. These effects were synthesized to predict per capita consumption in each population age cell in 2010 and 2020. Although some method refinement is warranted, the cohort approach proves a useful tool in improving prediction of future food product consumption and, combined with economic factors, may prove useful in future economic forecasting.

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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8147
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    Article provided by International Food and Agribusiness Management Association (IAMA) in its journal International Food and Agribusiness Management Review.

    Volume (Year): 07 (2004)
    Issue (Month): 01 ()
    Pages:

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    Handle: RePEc:ags:ifaamr:8147
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    1. Deaton, A.S. & Paxson, C.H., 1992. "Saving, Growth, and Aging in Taiwan," Papers 161, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
    2. Hayes, Dermot J. & Wahl, Thomas I. & Williams, Gary W., 1990. "Testing Restrictions on a Model of Japanese Meat Demand," Staff General Research Papers 10940, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Eales, James S. & Roheim, Cathy A., 1999. "Testing Separability Of Japanese Demand For Meat And Fish Within Differential Demand Systems," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 24(01), July.
    4. Lin, Biing-Hwan & Variyam, Jayachandran N. & Allshouse, Jane E. & Cromartie, John, 2003. "Food And Agricultural Commodity Consumption In The United States: Looking Ahead To 2020," Agricultural Economics Reports 33959, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
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