IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fau/wpaper/wp2018_01.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Smoking Czechs: Modeling Tobacco Consumption and Taxation

Author

Listed:
  • Karel Janda

    (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic
    Department of Banking and Insurance, Faculty of Finance and Accounting, University of Economics, Namesti Winstona Churchilla 4, 13067 Prague, Czech Republic)

  • Martin Strobl

    (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic)

Abstract

We model the future tobacco consumption, size of smoking population and governmental tax revenues in the Czech Republic. The main assumption of our model states that smokers determine their future tobacco consumption behavior as adolescents. Further assumptions make the model applicable to the data from the Czech National Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction. Future teenage smoking rates and average consumption are the inputs to the model; consumption growth coeffcients for each age category are estimated using zero-inflated negative binomial regression. Several scenarios are built to model possible developments, including extreme cases. All our scenarios show that all model outcomes are going to grow until 2028 in a very similar pattern. In particular, the projected number of smokers in 2028 is by 4-8% higher than in 2013, the total daily tobacco consumption and tax revenue by 7-26%. This increase is induced by aging of large birth cohorts.

Suggested Citation

  • Karel Janda & Martin Strobl, 2018. "Smoking Czechs: Modeling Tobacco Consumption and Taxation," Working Papers IES 2018/01, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jan 2018.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2018_01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ies.fsv.cuni.cz/default/file/download/id/31775
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cameron, A Colin & Trivedi, Pravin K, 1986. "Econometric Models Based on Count Data: Comparisons and Applications of Some Estimators and Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 29-53, January.
    2. Hana Ross & Frank J. Chaloupka, 2003. "The effect of cigarette prices on youth smoking," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 217-230, March.
    3. Powell, Lisa M. & Tauras, John A. & Ross, Hana, 2005. "The importance of peer effects, cigarette prices and tobacco control policies for youth smoking behavior," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 950-968, September.
    4. Mori, Hiroshi & Clason, Dennis L., 2004. "A Cohort Approach for Predicting Future Eating Habits: The Case of At-Home Consumption of Fresh Fish and Meat in an Aging Japanese Society," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 7(1), pages 1-20.
    5. Filip Pertold, 2009. "Sorting into Secondary Education and Peer Effects in Youth Smoking," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp399, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    6. Vuong, Quang H, 1989. "Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 307-333, March.
    7. Becker, Gary S & Murphy, Kevin M, 1988. "A Theory of Rational Addiction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 675-700, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:preprint:id:685:p:1-27 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Fabrice Gilles & Sabina Issehnane & Florent Sari, 2022. "Using short-term jobs as a way to find a regular job. What kind of role for local context?," TEPP Working Paper 2022-07, TEPP.
    3. Greene, William, 2007. "Functional Form and Heterogeneity in Models for Count Data," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 1(2), pages 113-218, August.
    4. Christopher J. W. Zorn, 1998. "An Analytic and Empirical Examination of Zero-Inflated and Hurdle Poisson Specifications," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 26(3), pages 368-400, February.
    5. Harris, Mark N. & Ramful, Preety & Zhao, Xueyan, 2006. "An ordered generalised extreme value model with application to alcohol consumption in Australia," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 782-801, July.
    6. Ulf‐ G. Gerdtham, 1997. "Equity in Health Care Utilization: Further Tests Based on Hurdle Models and Swedish Micro Data," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(3), pages 303-319, May.
    7. J. M. C. Santos Silva, 2001. "A score test for non-nested hypotheses with applications to discrete data models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(5), pages 577-597.
    8. María Del Carmen Melgar & José Antonio Ordaz & Flor María Guerrero, 2006. "Une étude économétrique du nombre d'accidents dans le secteur de l'assurance automobile," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 49(2), pages 169-183.
    9. repec:zbw:rwirep:0064 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Elena Raptou & Konstadinos Mattas & Constantinos Katrakilidis, 2009. "Investigating Smoker's Profile: The Role of Psychosocial Characteristics and the Effectiveness of Tobacco Policy Tools," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(2), pages 603-638, April.
    11. Caterina Adelaide Mauri & Alexander Wolf, 2016. "Household Decisions on Arts Consumption: How Men Can Avoid the Ballet," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2016-36, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    12. Frondel, Manuel & Vance, Colin, 2011. "Rarely enjoyed? A count data analysis of ridership in Germany's public transport," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 425-433, March.
    13. Timothy Hinks & Andreas Katsaros, 2012. "Smoking Ban and Life Satisfaction: Evidence from the UK," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 17(1), pages 27-48, March.
    14. Harris, Matthew & Kohn, Jennifer, 2015. "Reference dependent utility from health and the demand for medical care," MPRA Paper 61926, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Katherine Hempstead & Emel O. Yildirim, 2014. "Supply‐Side Response To Declining Heroin Purity: Fentanyl Overdose Episode In New Jersey," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(6), pages 688-705, June.
    16. Pan, Dan & Zhang, Ning, 2018. "The Role of Agricultural Training on Fertilizer Use Knowledge: A Randomized Controlled Experiment," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 77-91.
    17. Thomas Baudin, 2008. "Religion and Fertility : The French Connection," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00348829, HAL.
    18. Christian Balcells, 2022. "Determinants of firm boundaries and organizational performance: an empirical investigation of the Chilean truck market," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 423-461, April.
    19. Iyer, S. & Weeks, M., 2004. "Multiple Social Interaction and Reproductive Externalities: An Investigation of Fertility Behaviour in Kenya," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0461, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    20. Banri ITO & Tatsufumi YAMAGATA, 2007. "Who Develops Innovations In Medicine For The Poor? Trends In Patent Applications Related To Medicines For Hiv/Aids, Tuberculosis, Malaria, And Neglected Diseases," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 45(2), pages 141-171, June.
    21. William Greene, 2007. "Correlation in Bivariate Poisson Regression Model," Working Papers 07-14, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    22. Antoni, Manfred, 2011. "Lifelong learning inequality? The relevance of family background for on-the-job training," IAB-Discussion Paper 201109, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].

    More about this item

    Keywords

    smoking; tobacco; cigarettes; consumption; taxation; forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2018_01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Natalie Svarcova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/icunicz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.