IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/gjagec/97437.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Die Berücksichtigung von Unsicherheit und Flexibilität in der Investitionsplanung – dargestellt am Beispiel einer Vertragsinvestition für Roggen

Author

Listed:
  • Musshoff, Oliver
  • Hirschauer, Norbert

Abstract

Investment decisions are, as a rule, characterized by uncertainty, irreversibility and flexibility. Simple net present value calculations will not account for these features. In many situations even flexible investment planning with decision trees, which represents the most advanced method of traditional investment appraisal, does not have the capacity to solve practical decision problems adequately. One handicap is a realistic and manageable representation of stochastic variables. It has long been known that stochastic simulation procedures offer a nearly unlimited capacity to represent distributions and stochastic processes. However, a standard simulation will not allow for the consideration of flexibility. The problem is that with a simple forward moving simulation of stochastic paths it is not clear at potential investment dates whether waiting or investing represents the optimal strategy. In this paper we show how stochastic simulation procedures can be integrated successfully into a backward recursive programming approach. The resulting modus operandi can be called “Bounded Recursive Stochastic Simulation†(BRSS). We use this efficient combination of simulation and dynamic programming to answer the question whether farmers should buy sales contracts which guarantee fixed prices for rye in the future. The results of the model affirm the importance of uncertainty and flexibility for investment decisions. They also show that the actual conditions offered by the wholesale buyer are not economically attractive for farmers, unless they are extremely risk averse. Thus, model results coincide with the empirical evidence that farmers do not enter these contracts.

Suggested Citation

  • Musshoff, Oliver & Hirschauer, Norbert, 2004. "Die Berücksichtigung von Unsicherheit und Flexibilität in der Investitionsplanung – dargestellt am Beispiel einer Vertragsinvestition für Roggen," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 53(4).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:gjagec:97437
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97437
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert C. Merton, 2005. "Theory of rational option pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Theory Of Valuation, chapter 8, pages 229-288 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    3. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    4. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    5. Martin Odening & Oliver Mußhoff & Alfons Balmann, 2005. "Investment decisions in hog finishing: an application of the real options approach," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 32(1), pages 47-60, January.
    6. LeBaron Blake, 1997. "A Fast Algorithm for the BDS Statistic," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(2), pages 1-9, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:gjagec:97437. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/iahubde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.