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Building sustainable futures: the bio-based fertilizer case-study

Author

Listed:
  • Abitabile, Carla
  • Arzeni, Andrea
  • Cisilino, Federica
  • Orlando, Matteo

Abstract

Bio-based fertilizers (BBFs) can be a solution for converting agricultural waste into new products useful for increasing organic matter in the soil, thus reducing the consumption of mineral fertilizers. This can contribute to the ecological transition launched by the European Commission for the coming decades. Scenario analysis is an effective tool to assess the factors that can affect the development of the agri-food supply chain, evaluating the effects of their possible evolutions. The aim of this work is to draw plausible future scenarios for the BBF supply chain and to strengthen the consistency evaluation process of these scenarios. We built the scenarios considering both the literature and findings from stakeholder consultations. We then verified their consistency by adopting the Cross-Impact Balances (CIB) method, along with other techniques to better evaluate the consistency and plausibility of the narratives. The analysis provides stakeholders with information to evaluate possible future trends in the BBF supply chain. Monitoring the evolution of the identified drivers and maintaining constant and periodic discussions among stakeholders constitute the prerequisites for supporting the desirable future development of BBFs.

Suggested Citation

  • Abitabile, Carla & Arzeni, Andrea & Cisilino, Federica & Orlando, Matteo, 2024. "Building sustainable futures: the bio-based fertilizer case-study," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 14(1).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aieabj:393866
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/393866/files/W00119_3-17_01-15786-Avitabile.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bas Ruijven & Marc Levy & Arun Agrawal & Frank Biermann & Joern Birkmann & Timothy Carter & Kristie Ebi & Matthias Garschagen & Bryan Jones & Roger Jones & Eric Kemp-Benedict & Marcel Kok & Kasper Kok, 2014. "Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 481-494, February.
    2. Brian O’Neill & Elmar Kriegler & Keywan Riahi & Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Timothy Carter & Ritu Mathur & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 387-400, February.
    3. Boschetti, Fabio & Walker, Iain & Price, Jennifer, 2016. "Modelling and attitudes towards the future," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 322(C), pages 71-81.
    4. Debora Puglia & Daniela Pezzolla & Giovanni Gigliotti & Luigi Torre & Maria Luce Bartucca & Daniele Del Buono, 2021. "The Opportunity of Valorizing Agricultural Waste, Through Its Conversion into Biostimulants, Biofertilizers, and Biopolymers," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-25, March.
    5. Elmar Kriegler & Jae Edmonds & Stéphane Hallegatte & Kristie Ebi & Tom Kram & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 401-414, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Arfini, Filippo & Bartolini,Fabio & Carbone,Anna & Castellotti, Tatiana & Coderoni, Silvia & Cortignani, Raffaele & D'Annolfo, Raffaele & Guccione, Giovanni Dara & Donati, Michele & Galli, Francesca &, 2025. "Where is the Italian agriculture heading? A discussion in light of the prospects for the future CAP," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 14(2).

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