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The Economics of a Lost Deal: Kyoto - The Hague - Marrakesh

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  • Jean-Charles Hourcade
  • Frederic Ghersi

Abstract

This paper examines prospects for compromise between competing perspectives on four key climate change issues: costs, level of domestic action, environmental integrity, and developing world involvement. It focuses on the policy issues stemming from uncertainty about abatement costs. Based on extensive simulations of a model integration tool, SAP12 (Stochastic Assessment of Climate Policies, 12 models), the analysis considers options for fine-tuning the Kyoto Protocol, such as concrete ceilings or levies on carbon imports; "environmental restoration payments" to be made on excess emissions; and credits for sequestration activities in Annex B countries. It demonstrates that a restoration payment (implemented through a safety valve) emerges as a superior means of addressing the cost uncertainty issue. The paper concludes that had this approach been taken at the COP6 climate negotiations in The Hague, there would have been substantial room for compromise on payments of $35 to $100 per ton of carbon. Examining the Marrakesh (COP7) climate accord, it derives some lessons for attempts at completing Kyoto's unfinished business or at moving on to a new framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Charles Hourcade & Frederic Ghersi, 2002. "The Economics of a Lost Deal: Kyoto - The Hague - Marrakesh," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-26.
  • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:2002v23-03-a01
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    1. M. Ha-Duong & M. J. Grubb & J.-C. Hourcade, 1997. "Influence of socioeconomic inertia and uncertainty on optimal CO2-emission abatement," Nature, Nature, vol. 390(6657), pages 270-273, November.
    2. A. Denny Ellerman & Ian Sue Wing, 2000. "Supplementarity: An Invitation to Monopsony?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 29-59.
    3. Lecocq, Franck & Hourcade, Jean-Charles & Ha Duong, Minh, 1998. "Decision making under uncertainty and inertia constraints: sectoral implications of the when flexibility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(5-6), pages 539-555, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Franck Lecocq & Jean-Charles Hourcade, 2016. "Unspoken Ethical Issues in the Climate Affair: Insights from a Theoretical Analysis of Negotiation Mandates," Studies in Economic Theory, in: Graciela Chichilnisky & Armon Rezai (ed.), The Economics of the Global Environment, pages 311-340, Springer.
    2. Abrell, Jan & Rausch, Sebastian, 2017. "Combining price and quantity controls under partitioned environmental regulation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 226-242.
    3. Jean Charles Hourcade & P.-R. Shukla & Sandrine Mathy, 2005. "Cutting the Climate-Development Gordian Knot - Economic options in a politically constrained world," Working Papers hal-00866572, HAL.
    4. Khalil Helioui, 2006. "Coordination internationale des politiques climatiques : quelle efficacité ?," CIRED Working Papers hal-00866433, HAL.
    5. Lecuyer, Oskar & Quirion, Philippe, 2013. "Can uncertainty justify overlapping policy instruments to mitigate emissions?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 177-191.
    6. Fr�d�ric Ghersi & Jean-Charles Hourcade & Patrick Criqui, 2003. "Viable responses to the equity-responsibility dilemma: a consequentialist view," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(sup1), pages 115-133, November.
    7. Jean Charles Hourcade & Franck Lecocq, 2003. "Equitable Provision of Long-Term Public GoodsThe role of Negotiation Mandates," CIRED Working Papers halshs-00000968, HAL.
    8. Jan Abrell & Sebastian Rausch & Hidemichi Yonezawa, 2019. "Higher Price, Lower Costs? Minimum Prices in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 121(2), pages 446-481, April.
    9. J. Hourcade & B. Perrissin Fabert & J. Rozenberg, 2012. "Venturing into uncharted financial waters: an essay on climate-friendly finance," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 165-186, May.
    10. Jean Charles Hourcade & Michel Aglietta & Baptiste Perrissin-Fabert, 2014. "Transition to a Low-Carbon society and sustainable economic recovery, a monetary-based financial device," Post-Print hal-01692593, HAL.
    11. Zou Ji & Fu Sha, 2015. "The challenges of the post-COP21 regime: interpreting CBDR in the INDC context," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 421-430, November.
    12. VAN STEENBERGHE, Vincent, 2003. "CO2 abatement costs and permits price : Exploring the impact of banking and the role of future commitments," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2003098, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    13. Khalil Helioui, 2006. "Coordination internationale des politiques climatiques : quelle efficacité ?," Working Papers hal-00866433, HAL.
    14. Haar, Laura N. & Haar, Lawrence, 2006. "Policy-making under uncertainty: Commentary upon the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 2615-2629, November.
    15. Quirion, Philippe, 2010. "Complying with the Kyoto Protocol under uncertainty: Taxes or tradable permits?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 5166-5173, September.

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