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The Looming Threat of Tariff Hikes: Entry into Exporting under Trade Agreement Renegotiation

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  • Meredith A. Crowley
  • Oliver Exton
  • Lu Han

Abstract

We examine how the looming threat of tariff hikes under a trade agreement renegotiation impacts firm entry into a trading partner's market by exploiting uncertainty over the future UK-EU trade relationship brought about by the June 2016 Brexit referendum. Using the universe of UK export transactions at the firm and product level, we find that uncertainty over future market access to the EU deterred entry modestly in the months immediately after the Brexit vote, but the deterrent effect increased over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Meredith A. Crowley & Oliver Exton & Lu Han, 2020. "The Looming Threat of Tariff Hikes: Entry into Exporting under Trade Agreement Renegotiation," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 547-551, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:110:y:2020:p:547-51
    DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20201020
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    6. Crowley, Meredith & Meng, Ning & Song, Huasheng, 2018. "Tariff scares: Trade policy uncertainty and foreign market entry by Chinese firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 96-115.
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    11. Alejandro G Graziano & Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2021. "Brexit Uncertainty and Trade Disintegration," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(635), pages 1150-1185.
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    Cited by:

    1. Freeman, Rebecca & Manova, Kalina & Prayer, Thomas & Sampson, Thomas, 2022. "UK Trade in the Wake of Brexit," Single Market Economics Papers WP2022/12, Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs (European Commission), Chief Economist Team.
    2. Mustapha Douch & Terence Huw Edwards, 2022. "The bilateral trade effects of announcement shocks: Brexit as a natural field experiment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 305-329, March.
    3. Jakubik, Adam & Ruta, Michele, 2023. "Trading with friends in uncertain times," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 768-780.
    4. de Lucio, Juan & Mínguez, Raúl & Minondo, Asier & Requena, Francisco, 2024. "The negative impact of disintegration on trade: The case of Brexit," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    5. Josh De Lyon & Swati Dhingra, 2020. "Covid-19 and Brexit: Real-time updates on business performance in the United Kingdom," CEP Covid-19 Analyses cepcovid-19-006, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    6. Schrader, Klaus & Jessen-Thiesen, Levke, 2021. "Deutsche Arbeitsplätze und Brexit: Die Bedeutung des Exports nach Großbritannien für die Beschäftigung in den deutschen Bundesländern," Kiel Policy Brief 149, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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