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The Cyclical Behavior of Job Quality and Real Wage Growth

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  • Andriana Bellou
  • Bariş Kaymak

Abstract

We study the empirical relevance of implicit insurance contracts for wage setting while accounting for cyclical fluctuations in average job quality. Using proxy measures, we find the latter to be acyclical, if not countercyclical, due to the cleansing effects of layoffs during recessions versus quits during expansions. Then, we study the cyclical behavior of wage growth among job stayers to test for contracts, circumventing differences in job quality altogether. Both methods strongly corroborate the prevalence of wage contracts in the labor market and imply a highly procyclical price for labor.

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  • Andriana Bellou & Bariş Kaymak, 2021. "The Cyclical Behavior of Job Quality and Real Wage Growth," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 83-96, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aerins:v:3:y:2021:i:1:p:83-96
    DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20190553
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert Shimer, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 25-49, March.
    2. Darren Grant, 2003. "The Effect of Implicit Contracts on the Movement of Wages over the Business Cycle: Evidence from the National Longitudinal Surveys," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 56(3), pages 393-408, April.
    3. Bils, Mark J, 1985. "Real Wages over the Business Cycle: Evidence from Panel Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(4), pages 666-689, August.
    4. Barış Kaymak, 2014. "Postschooling Training Investment and Employer Learning," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(3), pages 318-349.
    5. Yoram Ben-Porath, 1967. "The Production of Human Capital and the Life Cycle of Earnings," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 352-352.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Matthew Knowles & Mario Lupoli, 2023. "The Nash Wage Elasticity and its Business Cycle Implications," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 240, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    2. Adamopoulou, Effrosyni & Villanueva, Ernesto, 2022. "Wage determination and the bite of collective contracts in Italy and Spain," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    3. Choi, Sekyu & Figueroa, Nincen & Villena-Roldán, Benjamin, 2020. "Wage Cyclicality Revisited: The Role of Hiring Standards," MPRA Paper 98240, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J41 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Labor Contracts
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs

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