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Good Cop, Bad Cop: Using Civilian Allegations to Predict Police Misconduct

Author

Listed:
  • Kyle Rozema
  • Max Schanzenbach

Abstract

In response to high-profile cases of police misconduct, reformers are calling for greater use of civilian allegations in identifying potential problem officers. This paper applies an Empirical Bayes framework to data on civilian allegations and civil rights litigation in Chicago to assess the predictive value of civilian allegations for serious future misconduct. We find a strong relationship between allegations and future civil rights litigation, especially for the very worst officers. The worst 1 percent of officers, as measured by civilian allegations, generate almost 5 times the number of payouts and over 4 times the total damage payouts in civil rights litigation. These findings suggest that intervention efforts could be fruitfully concentrated among a relatively small group.

Suggested Citation

  • Kyle Rozema & Max Schanzenbach, 2019. "Good Cop, Bad Cop: Using Civilian Allegations to Predict Police Misconduct," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 225-268, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejpol:v:11:y:2019:i:2:p:225-68
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/pol.20160573
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Holmstrom, Bengt & Milgrom, Paul, 1991. "Multitask Principal-Agent Analyses: Incentive Contracts, Asset Ownership, and Job Design," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 7(0), pages 24-52, Special I.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eric Langlais & Ken Yahagi, 2025. "Law enforcement with unlawful investigations and enforcer's liability," Working Papers hal-05041878, HAL.
    2. Ferrazares, Toshio, 2024. "Monitoring Police with Body-Worn Cameras: Evidence from Chicago," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    3. Jiaying Gu & Nikolaos Ignatiadis & Azeem M. Shaikh, 2025. "Reasonable uncertainty: Confidence intervals in empirical Bayes discrimination detection," Papers 2508.13110, arXiv.org.
    4. Saltiel, Fernando & Tuttle, Cody, 2022. "Business Cycles and Police Hires," IZA Discussion Papers 15665, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Ben Grunwald & John Rappaport & Michael Berg, 2024. "Private security and public police," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(3), pages 428-481, September.
    6. Gregory DeAngelo & Matthew Gomies & Rustam Romaniuc, 2023. "Do civilian complaints against police get punished?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 196(3), pages 453-482, September.
    7. Kim, Taeho, 2025. "Facilitating police reform: Body cameras, police-involved homicides, and law enforcement outcomes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    8. Stroube, Bryan K., 2021. "Using allegations to understand selection bias in organizations: Misconduct in the Chicago Police Department," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 149-165.
    9. Goldrosen, Nicholas, 2024. "Is corrections officers' use of illegal force networked? Network structure, brokerage, and key players in the New York City Department of Correction," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    10. Boylan, Richard T., 2022. "Should cities disband their police departments?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    11. Federico Masera, 2022. "The economics of policing and crimeThe economics of policing and crime," Chapters, in: Paolo Buonanno & Paolo Vanin & Juan Vargas (ed.), A Modern Guide to the Economics of Crime, chapter 2, pages 12-29, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Dhammika Dharmapala & Richard H. McAdams & John Rappaport, 2019. "Collective Bargaining and Police Misconduct: Evidence from Florida," CESifo Working Paper Series 7718, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H76 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Other Expenditure Categories
    • K38 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - Human Rights Law; Gender Law; Animal Rights Law
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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