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Cell Phone Access and Election Fraud: Evidence from a Spatial Regression Discontinuity Design in Afghanistan

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  • Robert M. Gonzalez

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of cell phone access on election fraud. I combine cell phone coverage maps with the location of polling centers during the 2009 Afghan presidential election to pinpoint which centers were exposed to coverage. Results from a spatial regression discontinuity design along the two-dimensional coverage boundary suggest that coverage deters corrupt behavior. Polling centers just inside coverage report a drop in the share of fraudulent votes of 4 percentage points, while the likelihood of a fraudulent station decreases by 8 percentage points. Analyses of the effect of coverage on citizen participation in election monitoring, election-related insurgent violence, and the tribal composition of villages suggest that the observed declines in fraud are likely attributed to cell phone access strengthening social monitoring capacity.

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  • Robert M. Gonzalez, 2021. "Cell Phone Access and Election Fraud: Evidence from a Spatial Regression Discontinuity Design in Afghanistan," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 1-51, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejapp:v:13:y:2021:i:2:p:1-51
    DOI: 10.1257/app.20190443
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Luke N. Condra & James D. Long & Andrew C. Shaver & Austin L. Wright, 2018. "The Logic of Insurgent Electoral Violence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(11), pages 3199-3231, November.
    2. Matias D. Cattaneo & Michael Jansson & Xinwei Ma, 2020. "Simple Local Polynomial Density Estimators," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 115(531), pages 1449-1455, July.
    3. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Rocio Titiunik, 2014. "Robust Nonparametric Confidence Intervals for Regression‐Discontinuity Designs," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 2295-2326, November.
    4. Conley, T. G., 1999. "GMM estimation with cross sectional dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-45, September.
    5. Eddie Dekel & Matthew O. Jackson & Asher Wolinsky, 2008. "Vote Buying: General Elections," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(2), pages 351-380, April.
    6. repec:bla:scandj:v:96:y:1994:i:2:p:219-39 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Matias D. Cattaneo & Michael Jansson & Xinwei Ma, 2018. "Manipulation testing based on density discontinuity," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 18(1), pages 234-261, March.
    8. Weidmann, Nils B. & Callen, Michael, 2013. "Violence and Election Fraud: Evidence from Afghanistan," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(1), pages 53-75, January.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Mensah,Justice Tei & Hirfrfot,Kibrom Tafere & Abay,Kibrom A., 2022. "Saving Lives through Technology : Mobile Phones and Infant Mortality," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9978, The World Bank.
    3. Mensah,Justice Tei, 2023. "Mobile Phones and Local Economic Development : A Global Evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10526, The World Bank.
    4. Oeindrila Dube & Joshua Blumenstock & Michael Callen, 2022. "Measuring Religion from Behavior: Climate Shocks and Religious Adherence in Afghanistan," NBER Working Papers 30694, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Cohle, Zachary & Ortega, Alberto, 2022. "Life of the party: The polarizing effect of foreign direct investment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    6. Gonzalez, Robert & Maffioli, Elisa M., 2024. "Is the phone mightier than the virus? Cellphone access and epidemic containment efforts," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    7. Süß, Karolin, 2023. "Long-term effects of historical inheritance customs on household formation and gender disparities," Ruhr Economic Papers 1038, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    8. repec:zbw:itse22:265632 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Roodman, David, 2024. "The Arrival of Fast Internet and Employment in Africa - Comment," I4R Discussion Paper Series 148, The Institute for Replication (I4R).
    10. Peter H. Egger & Yulong Wang, 2025. "Estimating Export-productivity Cutoff Contours with Profit Data: A Novel Threshold Estimation Approach," Papers 2502.03406, arXiv.org.
    11. Justice Tei Mensah & Nouhoum Traore, 2024. "Infrastructure Quality and FDI Inflows: Evidence from the Arrival of High-Speed Internet in Africa," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 38(1), pages 1-23.
    12. Thomas A. Fackler & Oliver Falck & Simon Krause & Thomas Fackler, 2024. "The Value of Connectivity: High-Speed Broadband Internet and Real Estate Prices," CESifo Working Paper Series 11595, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • K16 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Election Law
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • Z13 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology; Language; Social and Economic Stratification

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