IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aejapp/v12y2020i4p224-52.html

Partisan Shocks and Financial Markets: Evidence from Close National Elections

Author

Listed:
  • Daniele Girardi

Abstract

This paper estimates the effect of partisan electoral victories on stock and bond markets. We employ a regression-discontinuity-based event study in a sample of 758 worldwide post-1945 national elections, using existing data on parliamentary elections and newly collected data on presidential elections. Left-wing electoral victories cause significant and substantial short-term decreases in stock market valuations, while the response of sovereign bond markets is mostly muted. Stock market effects are stronger and more persistent in elections in which the left's proposed economic policy is more radical and in developing economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniele Girardi, 2020. "Partisan Shocks and Financial Markets: Evidence from Close National Elections," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 224-252, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejapp:v:12:y:2020:i:4:p:224-52
    DOI: 10.1257/app.20190292
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/app.20190292
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3886/E115008V1
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/app.20190292.appx
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/app.20190292.ds
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1257/app.20190292?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Reinhart, Carmen, 2002. "A Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: The Country Histories, 1946-2001," MPRA Paper 13191, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. McCrary, Justin, 2008. "Manipulation of the running variable in the regression discontinuity design: A density test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 698-714, February.
    3. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M Reinhart & Kenneth S Rogoff, 2019. "Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor will Hold?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(2), pages 599-646.
    4. Klein, Michael W. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2012. "Exchange Rate Regimes in the Modern Era," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026251799x, December.
    5. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Rocio Titiunik, 2014. "Robust Nonparametric Confidence Intervals for Regression‐Discontinuity Designs," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 2295-2326, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:osf:socarx:bhwk7_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Benjamin Marx & Vincent Pons & Vincent Rollet, 2022. "Electoral Turnovers," NBER Working Papers 29766, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Fetzer, Thiemo & Yotzov, Ivan, 2023. "(How) Do electoral surprises drive business cycles? Evidence from a new dataset," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1468, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    4. Cazals, Antoine & Léon, Florian, 2023. "Perception of political instability in election periods: Evidence from African firms," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 259-276.
    5. Aldunate, Felipe & Gonzalez, Felipe & Prem, Mounu, 2021. "Make the Economy Scream? U.S. Banks and Foreign Firms During the Cold War," SocArXiv bhwk7, Center for Open Science.
    6. Aldunate, Felipe & Gonzalez, Felipe & Prem, Mounu, 2022. "The Limits of Hegemony: Banks, Covert Actions, and Foreign Firms," SocArXiv z8f4h, Center for Open Science.
    7. Gouvêa, Raphael & Girardi, Daniele, 2021. "Partisanship and local fiscal policy: Evidence from Brazilian cities," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    8. Kreitmeir, David & Lane, Nathaniel & Raschky, Paul A, 2020. "The Value of Names - Civil Society, Information, and Governing Multinationals on the Global Periphery," SocArXiv aw7sq, Center for Open Science.
    9. Kempf, Elisabeth & Luo, Mancy & Schäfer, Larissa & Tsoutsoura, Margarita, 2023. "Political ideology and international capital allocation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(2), pages 150-173.
    10. de Jong, Abe & Shahriar, Abu Zafar & Shazia, Farhan, 2022. "Reaching out to the unbanked: The role of political ideology in financial inclusion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    11. Hayley Pallan, 2022. "Do Investors Care About Consumption Taxes? Evidence from Equities in Advanced and Emerging Economies," IHEID Working Papers 14-2022, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    12. Cohle, Zachary & Ortega, Alberto, 2022. "Life of the party: The polarizing effect of foreign direct investment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    13. Aldunate, Felipe & González, Felipe & Prem, Mounu, 2024. "The limits of hegemony: U.S. banks and Chilean firms in the Cold War," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    14. repec:osf:socarx:z8f4h_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Libertad González Luna & Luis Guirola & Blanca Zapater, 2023. "Partisan Abortions," Economics Working Papers 1859, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daniele Girardi, 2018. "Political shocks and financial markets : regression-discontinuity evidence from national elections," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2018-08, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    2. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M Reinhart & Kenneth S Rogoff, 2020. "Why is the euro punching below its weight?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 35(103), pages 405-460.
    3. Alstadheim, Ragna & Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Maih, Junior, 2021. "Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A Markov-switching structural investigation of commodity exporters and importers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    4. Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2022. "Exchange arrangements and economic growth. What relationship is there?," MPRA Paper 113897, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Carl Grekou & Cécile Couharde, 2020. "The Fata Morgana of Exchange Rate Regimes: Reconciling the LYS and the RR classifications," Working Papers hal-04159684, HAL.
    6. Marek A. Dąbrowski & Monika Papież & Sławomir Śmiech, 2020. "Classifying de facto exchange rate regimes of financially open and closed economies: A statistical approach," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(7), pages 821-849, October.
    7. Freddy A. Pinzón-Puerto & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2023. "Do Actions Speak Louder than Words? A Foreign Exchange Intervention Analysis," Borradores de Economia 1223, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Lahura, Erick & Vega, Marco, 2013. "Regímenes cambiarios y desempeño macroeconómico: Una evaluación de la literatura," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 26, pages 101-119.
    9. Thomas J. Kane & Angela Boatman & Whitney Kozakowski & Christopher Bennett & Rachel Hitch & Dana Weisenfeld, 2021. "Is College Remediation a Barrier or a Boost? Evidence from the Tennessee SAILS Program," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 883-913, June.
    10. Cramer, Kim Fe, 2023. "Bank presence and health," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119194, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Sugat Chaturvedi & Sabyasachi & Kanika Mahajan, 2021. "The Importance of being Earnest: What Explains the Gender Quota Effect in Politics?," Working Papers 52, Ashoka University, Department of Economics.
    12. Kantorowicz, Jarosław & Köppl–Turyna, Monika, 2019. "Disentangling the fiscal effects of local constitutions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 63-87.
    13. Leopoldo Fergusson & Arturo Harker & Carlos Molina & Juan Camilo Yamín, 2023. "Birds of a Feather Collude Together: Subnational Alignment and Corruption," Documentos CEDE 20732, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    14. Chen, Yi & Zhao, Yi, 2022. "The timing of first marriage and subsequent life outcomes: Evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 713-731.
    15. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2020. "Will the Secular Decline in Exchange Rate and Inflation Volatility Survive COVID-19?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(3 (Fall)), pages 279-332.
    16. Bagues, Manuel & Campa, Pamela, 2021. "Can gender quotas in candidate lists empower women? Evidence from a regression discontinuity design," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    17. Georgios Georgiadis & Feng Zhu, 2019. "Monetary policy spillovers, capital controls and exchange rate flexibility, and the financial channel of exchange rates," BIS Working Papers 797, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Bovay, John, 2021. "Moral hazard under discrete information disclosure: Evidence from food-safety inspections," 2021 Allied Social Sciences Association (ASSA) Annual Meeting (Virtual), January 3-5, 2021, San Diego, California 307948, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    19. Shi, Xunpeng & Tian, Binbin & Yang, Longjian & Yu, Jian & Zhou, Siyang, 2023. "How do regulatory environmental policies perform? A case study of China's Top-10,000 enterprises energy-saving program," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    20. Köppl–Turyna, Monika & Pitlik, Hans, 2018. "Do equalization payments affect subnational borrowing? Evidence from regression discontinuity," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 84-108.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N40 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aejapp:v:12:y:2020:i:4:p:224-52. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael P. Albert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.