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Partisan Shocks and Financial Markets: Evidence from Close National Elections

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  • Daniele Girardi

Abstract

This paper estimates the effect of partisan electoral victories on stock and bond markets. We employ a regression-discontinuity-based event study in a sample of 758 worldwide post-1945 national elections, using existing data on parliamentary elections and newly collected data on presidential elections. Left-wing electoral victories cause significant and substantial short-term decreases in stock market valuations, while the response of sovereign bond markets is mostly muted. Stock market effects are stronger and more persistent in elections in which the left's proposed economic policy is more radical and in developing economies.

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  • Daniele Girardi, 2020. "Partisan Shocks and Financial Markets: Evidence from Close National Elections," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 224-252, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejapp:v:12:y:2020:i:4:p:224-52
    DOI: 10.1257/app.20190292
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    Cited by:

    1. Kempf, Elisabeth & Luo, Mancy & Schäfer, Larissa & Tsoutsoura, Margarita, 2023. "Political ideology and international capital allocation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(2), pages 150-173.
    2. Fetzer, Thiemo & Yotzov, Ivan, 2023. "(How) Do electoral surprises drive business cycles? Evidence from a new dataset," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 672, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    3. Benjamin Marx & Vincent Pons & Vincent Rollet, 2022. "Electoral Turnovers," NBER Working Papers 29766, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Cazals, Antoine & Léon, Florian, 2023. "Perception of political instability in election periods: Evidence from African firms," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 259-276.
    5. Gouvêa, Raphael & Girardi, Daniele, 2021. "Partisanship and local fiscal policy: Evidence from Brazilian cities," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    6. Kreitmeir, David & Lane, Nathaniel & Raschky, Paul A, 2020. "The Value of Names - Civil Society, Information, and Governing Multinationals on the Global Periphery," SocArXiv aw7sq, Center for Open Science.
    7. de Jong, Abe & Shahriar, Abu Zafar & Shazia, Farhan, 2022. "Reaching out to the unbanked: The role of political ideology in financial inclusion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    8. Aldunate, Felipe & Gonzalez, Felipe & Prem, Mounu, 2021. "Make the Economy Scream? U.S. Banks and Foreign Firms During the Cold War," SocArXiv bhwk7, Center for Open Science.
    9. Cohle, Zachary & Ortega, Alberto, 2022. "Life of the party: The polarizing effect of foreign direct investment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    10. Aldunate, Felipe & González, Felipe & Prem, Mounu, 2024. "The limits of hegemony: U.S. banks and Chilean firms in the Cold War," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    11. Aldunate, Felipe & Gonzalez, Felipe & Prem, Mounu, 2022. "The Limits of Hegemony: U.S. Banks and Chilean Firms in the Cold War," SocArXiv z8f4h_v1, Center for Open Science.
    12. Aldunate, Felipe & Gonzalez, Felipe & Prem, Mounu, 2021. "Make the Economy Scream? U.S. Banks and Foreign Firms During the Cold War," SocArXiv bhwk7_v1, Center for Open Science.
    13. Hayley Pallan, 2022. "Do Investors Care About Consumption Taxes? Evidence from Equities in Advanced and Emerging Economies," IHEID Working Papers 14-2022, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    14. Luis Guirola & Blanca Zapater & Libertad González, 2023. "Partisan Abortions," Working Papers 1385, Barcelona School of Economics.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N40 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

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