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Partisan Shocks and Financial Markets: Evidence from Close National Elections

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  • Daniele Girardi

Abstract

This paper estimates the effect of partisan electoral victories on stock and bond markets. We employ a regression-discontinuity-based event study in a sample of 758 worldwide post-1945 national elections, using existing data on parliamentary elections and newly collected data on presidential elections. Left-wing electoral victories cause significant and substantial short-term decreases in stock market valuations, while the response of sovereign bond markets is mostly muted. Stock market effects are stronger and more persistent in elections in which the left's proposed economic policy is more radical and in developing economies.

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  • Daniele Girardi, 2020. "Partisan Shocks and Financial Markets: Evidence from Close National Elections," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 224-252, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejapp:v:12:y:2020:i:4:p:224-52
    DOI: 10.1257/app.20190292
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    1. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M Reinhart & Kenneth S Rogoff, 2019. "Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor will Hold?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(2), pages 599-646.
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    5. Klein, Michael W. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2012. "Exchange Rate Regimes in the Modern Era," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026251799x, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kempf, Elisabeth & Luo, Mancy & Schäfer, Larissa & Tsoutsoura, Margarita, 2023. "Political ideology and international capital allocation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(2), pages 150-173.
    2. Cazals, Antoine & Léon, Florian, 2023. "Perception of political instability in election periods: Evidence from African firms," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 259-276.
    3. Fetzer, Thiemo & Yotzov, Ivan, 2023. "(How) Do electoral surprises drive business cycles? Evidence from a new dataset," CEPR Discussion Papers 18306, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Aldunate, Felipe & Gonzalez, Felipe & Prem, Mounu, 2021. "Make the Economy Scream? U.S. Banks and Foreign Firms During the Cold War," SocArXiv bhwk7, Center for Open Science.
    5. Hayley Pallan, 2022. "Do Investors Care About Consumption Taxes? Evidence from Equities in Advanced and Emerging Economies," IHEID Working Papers 14-2022, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    6. Benjamin Marx & Vincent Pons & Vincent Rollet, 2022. "Electoral Turnovers," NBER Working Papers 29766, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. repec:osf:socarx:z8f4h_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:osf:socarx:bhwk7_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. David Kreitmeir & Nathan Lane & Paul A. Raschky, 2020. "The Value of Names - Civil Society, Information, and Governing Multinationals on the Global Periphery," SoDa Laboratories Working Paper Series 2020-10, Monash University, SoDa Laboratories.
    10. Cohle, Zachary & Ortega, Alberto, 2022. "Life of the party: The polarizing effect of foreign direct investment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    11. Aldunate, Felipe & González, Felipe & Prem, Mounu, 2024. "The limits of hegemony: U.S. banks and Chilean firms in the Cold War," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    12. Libertad González Luna & Luis Guirola & Blanca Zapater, 2023. "Partisan Abortions," Economics Working Papers 1859, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    13. Gouvêa, Raphael & Girardi, Daniele, 2021. "Partisanship and local fiscal policy: Evidence from Brazilian cities," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    14. de Jong, Abe & Shahriar, Abu Zafar & Shazia, Farhan, 2022. "Reaching out to the unbanked: The role of political ideology in financial inclusion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N40 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

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