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A Numerical Investigation of the Potential for Negative Emissions Leakage

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  • Niven Winchester
  • Sebastian Rausch

Abstract

Emissions restrictions in one region may decrease emissions elsewhere (negative leakage), as increased demand for capital and labor to abate emissions in constrained regions may reduce output in unconstrained regions. We investigate leakage in computable general equilibrium (CGE) models under alternative fossil fuel supply elasticity values and factor mobility assumptions. We find that fossil fuel supply elasticities must be equal or close to infinity to generate net negative leakage. As empirical estimates for fossil fuel supply elasticities are less than 1, we conclude that leakage estimates from CGE models are unlikely to be negative.

Suggested Citation

  • Niven Winchester & Sebastian Rausch, 2013. "A Numerical Investigation of the Potential for Negative Emissions Leakage," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 320-325, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:103:y:2013:i:3:p:320-25
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.103.3.320
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kathy Baylis & Don Fullerton & Daniel H. Karney, 2014. "Negative Leakage," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 51-73.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bauer, Nico & Bosetti, Valentina & Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem & Kitous, Alban & McCollum, David & Méjean, Aurélie & Rao, Shilpa & Turton, Hal & Paroussos, Leonidas & Ashina, Shuichi & Calvin, Katherine & Wa, 2015. "CO2 emission mitigation and fossil fuel markets: Dynamic and international aspects of climate policies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 243-256.
    2. repec:eee:eneeco:v:74:y:2018:i:c:p:535-545 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Grischa Perino, 2015. "Climate Campaigns, Cap and Trade, and Carbon Leakage: Why Trying to Reduce Your Carbon Footprint Can Harm the Climate," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(3), pages 469-495.
    4. Knopf, Brigitte & Koch, Nicolas & Grosjean, Godefroy & Fuss, Sabine & Flachsland, Christian & Pahle, Michael & Jakob, Michael & Edenhofer, Ottmar, 2014. "The European Emissions Trading System (EU ETS): Ex-Post Analysis, the Market Stability Reserve and Options for a Comprehensive Reform," Climate Change and Sustainable Development 184856, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    5. repec:eee:jeeman:v:88:y:2018:i:c:p:95-113 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:eee:ecolec:v:159:y:2019:i:c:p:226-234 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Holladay, J. Scott & Mohsin, Mohammed & Pradhan, Shreekar, 2018. "Emissions leakage, environmental policy and trade frictions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 95-113.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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