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The Price of Political Uncertainty: Theory and Evidence from the Option Market

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Cited by:

  1. Jieun Lee & Doojin Ryu, 2019. "The impacts of public news announcements on intraday implied volatility dynamics," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 656-685, June.
  2. Kempf, Elisabeth & Luo, Mancy & Schäfer, Larissa & Tsoutsoura, Margarita, 2023. "Political ideology and international capital allocation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(2), pages 150-173.
  3. Junye Li & Gabriele Zinna, 2014. "How much of bank credit risk is sovereign risk? Evidence from the eurozone," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 990, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  4. Croce, M.M. & Nguyen, Thien T. & Raymond, S. & Schmid, L., 2019. "Government debt and the returns to innovation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(3), pages 205-225.
  5. Zhu, Zhaobo & Lin, Hang & Chen, Min & Han, Peiwen, 2023. "The spillover effect of economic policy uncertainty: Evidence from analyst behaviors in Hong Kong," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
  6. Hyeongwoo Kim & Madeline H. Kim, 2021. "U.S. presidential election polls and the economic prospects of China and Mexico," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(54), pages 6231-6248, November.
  7. Aaberge, Rolf & Liu, Kai & Zhu, Yu, 2017. "Political uncertainty and household savings," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 154-170.
  8. Beyer, Deborah B. & Fan, Zaifeng S., 2023. "The calming effects of conflict: The impact of partisan conflict on market volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
  9. Xianbo Zhou & Zhuoran Chen, 2023. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks to Consumption under Different Confidence Regimes Based on a Stochastic Uncertainty-in-Mean TVAR Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-20, February.
  10. Burkhard Raunig, 2018. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and the Volatility of Sovereign CDS Spreads," Working Papers 219, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  11. Nathan Canen & Chad Kendall & Francesco Trebbi, 2020. "Unbundling Polarization," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(3), pages 1197-1233, May.
  12. Ralph S. J. Koijen & Tomas J. Philipson & Harald Uhlig, 2016. "Financial Health Economics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 195-242, January.
  13. Bakas, Dimitrios & Triantafyllou, Athanasios, 2018. "The impact of uncertainty shocks on the volatility of commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 96-111.
  14. Chan, Yue-Cheong & Saffar, Walid & Wei, K.C. John, 2021. "How economic policy uncertainty affects the cost of raising equity capital: Evidence from seasoned equity offerings," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
  15. Białkowski, Jędrzej & Dang, Huong Dieu & Wei, Xiaopeng, 2022. "High policy uncertainty and low implied market volatility: An academic puzzle?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(3), pages 1185-1208.
  16. Barraza, Santiago & Civelli, Andrea, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and the supply of business loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
  17. Lai T. Hoang & Dirk G. Baur, 2020. "Forecasting bitcoin volatility: Evidence from the options market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(10), pages 1584-1602, October.
  18. Sang Byung Seo & Jessica A. Wachter, 2019. "Option Prices in a Model with Stochastic Disaster Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(8), pages 3449-3469, August.
  19. David Berger & Ian Dew-Becker & Stefano Giglio, 2020. "Uncertainty Shocks as Second-Moment News Shocks," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(1), pages 40-76.
  20. Juan M. Londono & Mehrdad Samadi, 2023. "The Price of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Evidence from Daily Options," International Finance Discussion Papers 1376, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  21. Zhibing Li & Jia Liu & Jie Liu & Xiaoyu Liu & Yinglun Zhu, 2024. "The causal effect of political risk on the stock market: Evidence from a natural experiment," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(1), pages 145-162, March.
  22. Tarek A Hassan & Stephan Hollander & Laurence van Lent & Ahmed Tahoun, 2019. "Firm-Level Political Risk: Measurement and Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(4), pages 2135-2202.
  23. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lee, Chi-Chuan & Zeng, Jhih-Hong & Hsu, Yu-Ling, 2017. "Peer bank behavior, economic policy uncertainty, and leverage decision of financial institutions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 79-91.
  24. Thanh C. Nguyen & Vítor Castro & Justine Wood, 2022. "Political environment and financial crises," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 417-438, January.
  25. Carvalho, Augusto & Guimaraes, Bernardo, 2018. "State-controlled companies and political risk: Evidence from the 2014 Brazilian election," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 66-78.
  26. Zhang, Yameng & Zhan, Wu & Xu, Yekun & Kumar, Vikas, 2020. "International friendship cities, regional government leaders, and outward foreign direct investment from China," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 105-118.
  27. Rungmaitree, Pattamon & Boateng, Agyenim & Ahiabor, Frederick & Lu, Qinye, 2022. "Political risk, hedge fund strategies, and returns: Evidence from G7 countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
  28. Ruediger Bachmann & Jinhui Bai & Minjoon Lee & Fudong Zhang, 2020. "The Welfare and Distributional Effects of Fiscal Volatility: a Quantitative Evaluation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pages 127-153, October.
  29. Do, Quoc-Anh & Galbiati, Roberto & Marx, Benjamin & Ortiz Serrano, Miguel A., 2024. "J'Accuse! Antisemitism and financial markets in the time of the Dreyfus Affair," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
  30. Hossein Asgharian & Charlotte Christiansen & Ai Jun Hou, 2017. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Long-Run Stock Market Volatility and Correlation," CREATES Research Papers 2018-12, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  31. Jianhui Li & Xinfeng Ruan & Sebastian A. Gehricke & Jin E. Zhang, 2022. "The COVID‐19 risk in the Chinese option market," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 346-355, June.
  32. Gradojevic, Nikola & Erdemlioglu, Deniz & Gençay, Ramazan, 2020. "A new wavelet-based ultra-high-frequency analysis of triangular currency arbitrage," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 57-73.
  33. Gasparini, Matteo, 2023. "Are financial markets pricing the net zero carbon transition? A reconsideration of the carbon premium," INET Oxford Working Papers 2023-23, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
  34. Marcelin, Isaac & Stephen, Sheryl-Ann K. & Fanta, Fassil & Tecklezion, Mussie, 2019. "Political regimes, investment and electoral uncertainty," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 580-599.
  35. Bree J. Lang & Pratish Patel, 2023. "Funding infrastructure under uncertainty: evidence from tax credit prices," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(3), pages 635-677, June.
  36. Eichler, Stefan & Plaga, Timo, 2020. "The economic record of the government and sovereign bond and stock returns around national elections," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
  37. José Valentim Machado Vicente & Jaqueline Terra Moura Marins, 2019. "A Volatility Smile-Based Uncertainty Index," Working Papers Series 502, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  38. Dai, Peng-Fei & Xiong, Xiong & Duc Huynh, Toan Luu & Wang, Jiqiang, 2022. "The impact of economic policy uncertainties on the volatility of European carbon market," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
  39. Jalloul, Maya & Miescu, Mirela, 2023. "Equity market connectedness across regimes of geopolitical risks: Historical evidence and theory," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
  40. Shabir, Mohsin & Jiang, Ping & Hashmi, Shujahat Haider & Bakhsh, Satar, 2022. "Non-linear nexus between economic policy uncertainty and bank lending," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 657-679.
  41. Jens, Candace E., 2017. "Political uncertainty and investment: Causal evidence from U.S. gubernatorial elections," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 563-579.
  42. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Marco C. Sammon, 2021. "What Triggers Stock Market Jumps?," NBER Working Papers 28687, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  43. Ming Gu & Minxing Sun & Yangru Wu & Weike Xu, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and momentum," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 50(1), pages 237-259, March.
  44. Matthijs Breugem & Raffaele Corvino & Roberto Marfè & Lorenzo Schönleber, 2020. "Pandemic Tail Risk," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 623, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
  45. Haoyu Gao & Fukang Chen & Yiling Ouyang, 2024. "The impacts of political uncertainty on public financing costs: evidence from anti-corruption investigations in China," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 198(1), pages 69-91, January.
  46. Bhambhwani, Siddharth M., 2022. "Disruption and stock markets: Evidence from Hong Kong," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
  47. Al-Thaqeb, Saud Asaad & Algharabali, Barrak Ghanim, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty: A literature review," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
  48. José Valentim Machado Vicente & Jaqueline Terra Moura Marins, 2021. "A volatility smile-based uncertainty index," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 231-246, June.
  49. Lee, Inho & Yoo, Shiyong, 2020. "Does peace boost stock prices? Evidence from the Korean stock market," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
  50. Tobias Burggraf, 2020. "Bitcoin and Global Political Uncertainty – Evidence from the U.S. Election Cycle," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(1), pages 727-742.
  51. Thomas Eisenbach & Martin Schmalz & Marianne Andries, 2015. "Asset Pricing with Horizon-Dependent Risk Aversion," 2015 Meeting Papers 1069, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  52. Bilal Haider Subhani & Umar Farooq & M. Ishaq Bhatti & Muhammad Asif Khan, 2021. "Economic Policy Uncertainty, National Culture, and Corporate Debt Financing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-15, October.
  53. Finta, Marinela Adriana & Aboura, Sofiane, 2020. "Risk premium spillovers among stock markets: Evidence from higher-order moments," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
  54. Baur, Dirk G. & Smales, Lee A., 2020. "Hedging geopolitical risk with precious metals," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
  55. Rey, Hélène & Jamilov, Rustam & Tahoun, Ahmed, 2021. "The Anatomy of Cyber Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 16217, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  56. Costantini, Mauro & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2022. "What uncertainty does to euro area sovereign bond markets: Flight to safety and flight to quality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
  57. Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Maliar, Serguei & Naubert, Christopher, 2020. "Household Savings and Monetary Policy under Individual and Aggregate Stochastic Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 15614, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  58. Faria, Gonçalo & Kosowski, Robert & Wang, Tianyu, 2022. "The Correlation Risk Premium: International Evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
  59. García-Uribe, Sandra & Mueller, Hannes & Sanz, Carlos, 2024. "Economic Uncertainty and Divisive Politics: Evidence from the dos Españas," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 84(1), pages 40-73, March.
  60. Alexander Opitz, 2018. "“Comrades, Let's March!”.† The Revolution of 1905 and its impact on financial markets," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 22(1), pages 28-52.
  61. Jasova, Martina & Mendicino, Caterina & Supera, Dominik, 2021. "Policy uncertainty, lender of last resort and the real economy," Working Paper Series 2521, European Central Bank.
  62. Ahmed Al Samman & Mostafa Kotb GabAlla, 2020. "Impact of Country Risk and Return on FPI," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 57-68.
  63. Anzuini, Alessio & Rossi, Luca & Tommasino, Pietro, 2020. "Fiscal policy uncertainty and the business cycle: Time series evidence from Italy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
  64. Yuan, Tiezhen & Wu, Ji (George) & Qin, Ni & Xu, Jian, 2022. "Being nice to stakeholders: The effect of economic policy uncertainty on corporate social responsibility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
  65. Jiafu An & Seth Armitage & Wenxuan Hou & Xianda Liu, 2020. "Do checks on bureaucrats improve firm value? Evidence from a natural experiment," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(5), pages 4821-4844, December.
  66. Dane M. Christensen & Arthur Morris & Beverly R. Walther & Laura A. Wellman, 2023. "Political information flow and management guidance," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 1466-1499, September.
  67. Kevin C. Smith & Eric C. So, 2022. "Measuring Risk Information," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(2), pages 375-426, May.
  68. Daníelsson, Jón & Macrae, Robert & Uthemann, Andreas, 2022. "Artificial intelligence and systemic risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
  69. Bianconi, Marcelo & Esposito, Federico & Sammon, Marco, 2021. "Trade policy uncertainty and stock returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
  70. Duan, Yuejiao & Fan, Xiaoyun & Wang, Yu, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank systemic risk: A cross-country analysis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
  71. Xinjie Wang & Weike Xu & Zhaodong (Ken) Zhong, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty, CDS spreads, and CDS liquidity provision," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(4), pages 461-480, April.
  72. Gonçalves, Tiago & Barros, Victor & Serra, Gonçalo, 2022. "Political elections uncertainty and earnings management: Does firm size really matter?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
  73. Gong, Xu & Fu, Chengbo & Huang, Qiping & Lin, Meimei, 2022. "International political uncertainty and climate risk in the stock market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
  74. Nguyen, Phuc Lam Thy & Alsakka, Rasha & Mantovan, Noemi, 2023. "The impact of sovereign credit ratings on voters’ preferences," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
  75. Choi, Wonseok & Chung, Chune Young & Wang, Kainan, 2022. "Firm-level political risk and corporate investment," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
  76. Das, Debojyoti & Kannadhasan, M. & Bhattacharyya, Malay, 2019. "Do the emerging stock markets react to international economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk and financial stress alike?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-19.
  77. Fang Liang & Lingshan Du & Zhuo Huang, 2023. "Option pricing with overnight and intraday volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(11), pages 1576-1614, November.
  78. Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr & Lambe, Brendan John, 2015. "Does economic policy uncertainty drive CDS spreads?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 447-458.
  79. Sadok El Ghoul & Omrane Guedhami & Robert Nash & He (Helen) Wang, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and insider trading," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 817-854, December.
  80. Xu, Zhaoxia, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty, cost of capital, and corporate innovation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
  81. Matousek, Roman & Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Papachristopoulou, Andromachi, 2020. "Policy uncertainty and the capital shortfall of global financial firms," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
  82. Karanasos, M. & Yfanti, S., 2021. "On the Economic fundamentals behind the Dynamic Equicorrelations among Asset classes: Global evidence from Equities, Real estate, and Commodities," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
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  84. Bernhardt, Dan & Krasa, Stefan & Mehdi Shadmehr, 2021. "Demagogues and the Fragility of Democracy," QAPEC Discussion Papers 05, Quantitative and Analytical Political Economy Research Centre.
  85. Lyu, Yongjian & Yi, Heling & Hu, Yingyi & Yang, Mo, 2021. "Economic uncertainty shocks and China's commodity futures returns: A time-varying perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
  86. María T. González-Pérez, 2021. "Lessons from estimating the average option-implied volatility term structure for the Spanish banking sector," Working Papers 2128, Banco de España.
  87. Ghirelli, Corinna & Pérez, Javier J. & Urtasun, Alberto, 2021. "The spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty in Latin America on the Spanish economy," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 2(2).
  88. D'Mello, Ranjan & Toscano, Francesca, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and short-term financing: The case of trade credit," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
  89. Marianne Andries & Thomas M. Eisenbach & Martin C. Schmalz, 2014. "Horizon-Dependent Risk Aversion and the Timing and Pricing of Uncertainty," Staff Reports 703, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  90. Croce, Mariano & Nguyen, Thien & Raymond, Steve, 2019. "Persistent Government Debt and Aggregate Risk Distribution," CEPR Discussion Papers 13922, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  91. Smales, Lee A., 2020. "Examining the relationship between policy uncertainty and market uncertainty across the G7," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
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  96. Paolo Manasse & Graziano Moramarco & Giulio Trigilia, 2024. "Exchange rates and political uncertainty: the Brexit case," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 91(362), pages 621-652, April.
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  99. Deng, Yuping & Wu, Yanrui & Xu, Helian, 2019. "Political turnover and firm pollution discharges: An empirical study," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
  100. Ruediger Bachmann & Jinhui Bai & Minjoon Lee & Fudong Zhang, 2020. "The Welfare and Distributional Effects of Fiscal Volatility: a Quantitative Evaluation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pages 127-153, October.
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  118. Corinna Ghirelli & Javier J. Pérez & Alberto Urtasun, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty in Latin America: measurement using Spanish newspapers and economic spillovers," Working Papers 2024, Banco de España.
  119. Croce, M. & Nguyen, Thien T. & Raymond, S., 2021. "Persistent government debt and aggregate risk distribution," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 347-367.
  120. Elfeituri, Hatem, 2022. "Banking stability, institutional quality, market concentration, competition and political conflict in MENA," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
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  131. Fang-Nan Liao & Xiao-Li Ji & Zhi-Ping Wang, 2019. "Firms’ Sustainability: Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Affect Internal Control?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-26, February.
  132. Frank Obenpong Kwabi & Emmanuel Adegbite & Ernest Ezeani & Chizindu Wonu & Henry Mumbi, 2024. "Political uncertainty and stock market liquidity, size, and transaction cost: The role of institutional quality," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 2030-2048, April.
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  134. Mueller, Hannes & Garcia-Uribe, Sandra & Sanz, Carlos, 2020. "Economic Uncertainty and Divisive Politics: Evidence from the "dos Españas"," CEPR Discussion Papers 15479, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  135. Nicole Bauerle & An Chen, 2022. "Optimal investment under partial information and robust VaR-type constraint," Papers 2212.04394, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
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