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The risks from climate change to sovereign debt

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  • Stavros A. Zenios

    (University of Cyprus
    Cyprus Academy of Sciences, Letters and Arts
    Bruegel)

Abstract

The exposure of sovereigns to climate risks is priced and can affect credit ratings and debt servicing costs. I argue that the climate risks to fiscal stability are not receiving adequate attention and discuss how to remedy the situation. After providing evidence of divergent climate risks to advanced economies, I describe the transmission channels from climate change to public finance. Then, I suggest how integrated assessment models (IAMs) can be linked with stochastic debt sustainability analysis (DSA) to inform our understanding of climate risks to sovereign debt dynamics and assess the available fiscal space to finance climate policies. I argue for adopting the narrative scenario architecture developed within the IPCC to bring structure and transparency to the analysis. The analysis is complicated by deep uncertainty —risks, ambiguity, and mis-specifications— of climate change. Using scenario trees, narrative scenarios, and ensembles of models, respectively, we can deal with these three challenges. I illustrate using two prominent IAMs to generate the debt dynamics of a high-debt country under climate risks to economic growth and find adverse effects from as early as 2030. I conclude with the policy implications for fiscal stability authorities.

Suggested Citation

  • Stavros A. Zenios, 2022. "The risks from climate change to sovereign debt," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 1-19, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:172:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-022-03373-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03373-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Di Tommaso, Caterina & Foglia, Matteo & Pacelli, Vincenzo, 2023. "The impact and the contagion effect of natural disasters on sovereign credit risk. An empirical investigation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    3. Angela Köppl & Stefan Schleicher & Margit Schratzenstaller, 2023. "Klima- und umweltrelevante öffentliche Ausgaben in Österreich," WIFO Working Papers 655, WIFO.
    4. Yuqin Zhou & Shan Wu & Zhenhua Liu & Lavinia Rognone, 2023. "The asymmetric effects of climate risk on higher-moment connectedness among carbon, energy and metals markets," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.
    5. Peter von zur Muehlen, 2022. "Prices and Taxes in a Ramsey Climate Policy Model under Heterogeneous Beliefs and Ambiguity," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-56, October.
    6. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wang, Chih-Wei & Thinh, Bui Tien, 2023. "Green development, climate risks, and cash flow: International evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    7. Alessi, Lucia & Battiston, Stefano, 2022. "Two sides of the same coin: Green Taxonomy alignment versus transition risk in financial portfolios," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    8. Angela Köppl & Margit Schratzenstaller, 2024. "Policy Brief: Budgetäre Kosten und Risiken durch klimapolitisches Nichthandeln und Klimarisiken," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 70821, April.
    9. Philipp Heimberger, 2023. "Öffentliche Investitionen und Sozialstaat: Perspektiven der Budgetpolitik im Kontext von Energiekrise, Klimawandel und EU-Budgetregeln," wiiw Policy Notes 65, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    10. Karydas, Christos & Xepapadeas, Anastasios, 2022. "Climate change financial risks: Implications for asset pricing and interest rates," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).

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