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Climate change financial risks: Implications for asset pricing and interest rates

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  • Karydas, Christos
  • Xepapadeas, Anastasios

Abstract

In addition to tail macroeconomic events (e.g. wars, financial crises and pandemics), climate change poses a threat to financial stability — with extreme climatic events increasing in frequency and intensity and policy risks putting pressure on asset valuations. We study the effect of a changing climate on asset prices and interest rates through the lens of a dynamic CAPM with rare disasters, time-varying risk and recursive preferences. In our model, a changing climate makes tail events more frequent and less predictable, increasing the premium of climate risk; interestingly, this change may not be fully reflected in the overall market risk premium that includes both components of risk: macroeconomic and environmental. Our results also support the hypothesis of a declining real rate of interest as the planet warms, while the increasing risk of climate policy reduces the participation of brown assets in the market portfolio.

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  • Karydas, Christos & Xepapadeas, Anastasios, 2022. "Climate change financial risks: Implications for asset pricing and interest rates," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:63:y:2022:i:c:s1572308922000833
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2022.101061
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    2. Campiglio, Emanuele & Dietz, Simon & Venmans, Frank, 2022. "Optimal climate policy as if the transition matters," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117610, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; Tail events; Time-varying risk; Asset pricing; Interest rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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