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Climate change risks: pricing and portfolio allocation

Author

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  • Christos Karydas

    (Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH), ETH Zurich, Switzerland (USI), Switzerland)

  • Anastasios Xepapadeas

    (Department of International and European Economic Studies, Athens University of Economics and Business, Greece & Department of Economics, University of Bologna, Italy)

Abstract

There are concerns that climate-related physical and political risks are not yet properly reflected in asset prices. To address these concerns, we develop a dynamic asset pricing framework with two sources of rare disasters: macroeconomic events and climate change. We link carbon emissions and portfolio composition with the stochastically-varying probability of climate-related events. Using theory and simulations we study the implications of the imminent threat of climate change on different market measures and on the participation of carbon-intensive assets in the market portfolio. We also obtain closed-form solutions for market prices and the Social Cost of Carbon. Our results suggest that climate change implies a positive and increasing risk premium. We also show that, with the observed trends in climate change, macroeconomic risk works as a hedge against catastrophic climate change, such that the aggregate equity premium may remain unaltered. The transition risk of climate policy substantially lowers the participation of carbon-intensive assets in the market portfolio.

Suggested Citation

  • Christos Karydas & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2019. "Climate change risks: pricing and portfolio allocation," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 19/327, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    • Handle: RePEc:eth:wpswif:19-327
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    2. Diluiso, Francesca & Annicchiarico, Barbara & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Minx, Jan C., 2021. "Climate actions and macro-financial stability: The role of central banks," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    3. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Hambel, Christoph & Kraft, Holger, 2020. "Asset diversification versus climate action," CEPR Discussion Papers 14863, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Rick Van der Ploeg & Christoph Hambel & Holger Kraft, 2020. "Asset Pricing and Decarbonization: Diversification versus Climate Action," Economics Series Working Papers 901, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    5. Francesca Diluiso & Barbara Annicchiarico & Matthias Kalkuhl & Jan C. Minx, 2020. "Climate Actions and Stranded Assets: The Role of Financial Regulation and Monetary Policy," CEIS Research Paper 501, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 22 Jul 2020.
    6. Julia Anna Bingler & Chiara Colesanti Senni & Pierre Monnin, 2021. "Climate Transition Risk Metrics: Understanding Convergence and Divergence across Firms and Providers," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 21/363, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    7. Venturini, Alessio, 2022. "Climate change, risk factors and stock returns: A review of the literature," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    8. Martin Motl & Jaromir Tonner, 2021. "Modelling the impacts of climate change on the global economy: Stagflationary shock looming," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Global Economic Outlook - September 2021, pages 13-22, Czech National Bank.
    9. Bingler, Julia Anna & Colesanti Senni, Chiara & Monnin, Pierre, 2022. "Understand what you measure: Where climate transition risk metrics converge and why they diverge," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; Risk premia; Rare events; Policy Risk; Stranded assets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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