IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finsta/v54y2021ics1572308921000279.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Pricing climate-related risks in the bond market

Author

Listed:
  • Agliardi, Elettra
  • Agliardi, Rossella

Abstract

We develop a model for defaultable bonds incorporating both uncertainty about corporate earnings and uncertainty due to climate-related risks, which determine downward jumps in the firm value. In particular, we study how bond pricing is affected by transition risks, such as those coming from an abrupt change of climate policies. We show how the issuer’s credit quality changes as a result of its engagement in projects funded by green bonds and study the impact of green bonds on investors’ portfolio allocation. The way ‘green’ bonds may contribute to financial stability is also discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Agliardi, Elettra & Agliardi, Rossella, 2021. "Pricing climate-related risks in the bond market," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:54:y:2021:i:c:s1572308921000279
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2021.100868
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1572308921000279
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jfs.2021.100868?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Malcolm Baker & Daniel Bergstresser & George Serafeim & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2018. "Financing the Response to Climate Change: The Pricing and Ownership of U.S. Green Bonds," NBER Working Papers 25194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Stefan Ambec & Mark A. Cohen & Stewart Elgie & Paul Lanoie, 2013. "The Porter Hypothesis at 20: Can Environmental Regulation Enhance Innovation and Competitiveness?," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 7(1), pages 2-22, January.
    3. Rubashkina, Yana & Galeotti, Marzio & Verdolini, Elena, 2015. "Environmental regulation and competitiveness: Empirical evidence on the Porter Hypothesis from European manufacturing sectors," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 288-300.
    4. van Wijnbergen, Sweder & Olijslagers, Stan, 2019. "Discounting the Future: on Climate Change, Ambiguity Aversion and Epstein-Zin Preferences," CEPR Discussion Papers 13708, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Simon Dietz & Alex Bowen & Charlie Dixon & Philip Gradwell, 2016. "‘Climate value at risk’ of global financial assets," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(7), pages 676-679, July.
    6. Andreas Karpf & Antoine Mandel, 2018. "The changing value of the ‘green’ label on the US municipal bond market," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(2), pages 161-165, February.
    7. Larry G. Epstein & Stanley E. Zin, 2013. "Substitution, risk aversion and the temporal behavior of consumption and asset returns: A theoretical framework," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 12, pages 207-239, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Dafermos, Yannis & Nikolaidi, Maria & Galanis, Giorgos, 2018. "Climate Change, Financial Stability and Monetary Policy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 219-234.
    9. Reboredo, Juan C., 2018. "Green bond and financial markets: Co-movement, diversification and price spillover effects," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 38-50.
    10. Merton, Robert C., 1971. "Optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous-time model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 373-413, December.
    11. Christos Karydas & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2019. "Pricing climate change risks: CAPM with rare disasters and stochastic probabilities," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 19/311, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    12. Duffie, Darrell & Epstein, Larry G, 1992. "Stochastic Differential Utility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 353-394, March.
    13. Stefano Battiston & Antoine Mandel & Irene Monasterolo & Franziska Schütze & Gabriele Visentin, 2017. "A climate stress-test of the financial system," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(4), pages 283-288, April.
    14. Joost Driessen, 2005. "Is Default Event Risk Priced in Corporate Bonds?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 165-195.
    15. Frederick van der Ploeg & Armon Rezai, 2020. "Stranded Assets in the Transition to a Carbon-Free Economy," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 12(1), pages 281-298, October.
    16. Francois Gourio, 2012. "Disaster Risk and Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2734-2766, October.
    17. Monasterolo, Irene & Raberto, Marco, 2018. "The EIRIN Flow-of-funds Behavioural Model of Green Fiscal Policies and Green Sovereign Bonds," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 228-243.
    18. Olivier David Zerbib, 2019. "The effect of pro-environmental preferences on bond prices: Evidence from green bonds," Post-Print halshs-02008641, HAL.
    19. Zerbib, Olivier David, 2019. "The effect of pro-environmental preferences on bond prices: Evidence from green bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 39-60.
    20. Jerry Tsai & Jessica A. Wachter, 2015. "Disaster Risk and its Implications for Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 20926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Ravi Bansal & Dana Kiku & Amir Yaron, 2010. "Long Run Risks, the Macroeconomy, and Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 542-546, May.
    22. Emanuele Campiglio & Yannis Dafermos & Pierre Monnin & Josh Ryan-Collins & Guido Schotten & Misa Tanaka, 2018. "Climate change challenges for central banks and financial regulators," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(6), pages 462-468, June.
    23. Agliardi, Elettra & Agliardi, Rossella, 2019. "Financing environmentally-sustainable projects with green bonds," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(6), pages 608-623, December.
    24. Jessica A. Wachter, 2013. "Can Time-Varying Risk of Rare Disasters Explain Aggregate Stock Market Volatility?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 987-1035, June.
    25. Dietz, Simon & Bowen, Alex & Dixon, Charlie & Gradwell, Philip, 2016. "Climate value at risk of global financial assets," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 66226, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    26. Duffie, Darrel & Lions, Pierre-Louis, 1992. "PDE solutions of stochastic differential utility," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 577-606.
    27. Jerry Tsai & Jessica A. Wachter, 2015. "Disaster Risk and Its Implications for Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 219-252, December.
    28. Michael Greenstone, 2002. "The Impacts of Environmental Regulations on Industrial Activity: Evidence from the 1970 and 1977 Clean Air Act Amendments and the Census of Manufactures," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(6), pages 1175-1219, December.
    29. Robert J. Barro, 2009. "Rare Disasters, Asset Prices, and Welfare Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(1), pages 243-264, March.
    30. Martin L. Weitzman, 2011. "Fat-Tailed Uncertainty in the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 5(2), pages 275-292, Summer.
    31. Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron, 2004. "Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1481-1509, August.
    32. Pierre Monnin & Alexander Barkawi, 2015. "Monetary Policy and Sustainability. The Case of Bangladesh," Discussion Notes 1501, Council on Economic Policies.
    33. Duffie, Darrell & Epstein, Larry G, 1992. "Asset Pricing with Stochastic Differential Utility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 411-436.
    34. Batten,, Sandra & Sowerbutts, Rhiannon & Tanaka, Misa, 2016. "Let’s talk about the weather: the impact of climate change on central banks," Bank of England working papers 603, Bank of England.
    35. Zhou, Chunsheng, 2001. "The term structure of credit spreads with jump risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(11), pages 2015-2040, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yuanfeng Hu & Yixiang Tian & Luping Zhang, 2023. "Green Bond Pricing and Optimization Based on Carbon Emission Trading and Subsidies: From the Perspective of Externalities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-20, May.
    2. Zhang, Dongna & Dai, Xingyu & Wang, Qunwei & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2023. "Impacts of weather conditions on the US commodity markets systemic interdependence across multi-timescales," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    3. Douglas A. Adu & Basil Al‐Najjar & Thitima Sitthipongpanich, 2022. "Executive compensation, environmental performance, and sustainable banking: The moderating effect of governance mechanisms," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 1439-1463, May.
    4. Vilija Aleknevičien&# & Asta Bendoraityt&#, 2023. "Role of Green Finance in Greening the Economy: Conceptual Approach," Central European Business Review, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2023(2), pages 105-130.
    5. Ayman Abdalmajeed Alsmadi & Manaf Al-Okaily & Najed Alrawashdeh & Anwar Al-Gasaymeh & Amer Moh’d Al-hazimeh & Abdulrasheed Zakari, 2023. "A Bibliometric Analysis of Green Bonds and Sustainable Green Energy: Evidence from the Last Fifteen Years (2007–2022)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-16, March.
    6. Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Mefteh-Wali, Salma & Viviani, Jean-Laurent & Ben Jabeur, Sami & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul & Lucey, Brian M., 2022. "How do climate risk and clean energy spillovers, and uncertainty affect U.S. stock markets?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    7. Giulia Livieri & Davide Radi & Elia Smaniotto, 2023. "Pricing Transition Risk with a Jump-Diffusion Credit Risk Model: Evidences from the CDS market," Papers 2303.12483, arXiv.org.
    8. Inhwan Ko & Aseem Prakash, 2022. "Signaling climate resilience to municipal bond markets: does membership in adaptation-focused voluntary clubs affect bond rating?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 171(1), pages 1-19, March.
    9. Adu, Douglas A. & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul & Hasan, Mudassar, 2023. "Bank ownership structures and sustainable banking initiatives: The moderating effect of governance mechanism," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    10. Jiongye Jin & Jianing Zhang, 2023. "The Stock Performance of Green Bond Issuers During COVID-19 Pandemic: The Case of China," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 30(1), pages 211-230, March.
    11. Ren, Xiaohang & Li, Jingyao & He, Feng & Lucey, Brian, 2023. "Impact of climate policy uncertainty on traditional energy and green markets: Evidence from time-varying granger tests," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    12. Abhilash & Sandeep S. Shenoy & Dasharathraj K. Shetty & Lumen Shawn Lobo & Subrahmanya Kumar N., 2023. "Green Bond as an Innovative Financial Instrument in the Indian Financial Market: Insights From Systematic Literature Review Approach," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(2), pages 21582440231, June.
    13. Chatterjee, Sris & Gu, Xian & Hasan, Iftekhar & Lu, Haitian, 2023. "Ownership structure and the cost of debt: Evidence from the Chinese corporate bond market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 334-348.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Karydas, Christos & Xepapadeas, Anastasios, 2022. "Climate change financial risks: Implications for asset pricing and interest rates," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    2. Christos Karydas & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2019. "Climate change risks: pricing and portfolio allocation," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 19/327, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    3. Stan Olijslagers & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2019. "Discounting the Future: on Climate Change, Ambiguity Aversion and Epstein-Zin Preferences," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-030/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    4. Olijslagers, Stan & van der Ploeg, Frederick & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 2023. "On current and future carbon prices in a risky world," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    5. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak & Michal Pakoš, 2015. "Learning about Rare Disasters: Implications For Consumption and Asset Prices," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 1053-1104.
    6. Thomas Douenne, 2020. "Disaster Risks, Disaster Strikes, and Economic Growth: the Role of Preferences," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pages 251-272, October.
    7. Frederick Ploeg, 2021. "Carbon pricing under uncertainty," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(5), pages 1122-1142, October.
    8. Sang Byung Seo & Jessica A. Wachter, 2016. "Do Rare Events Explain CDX Tranche Spreads?," NBER Working Papers 22723, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Dergunov, Ilya & Meinerding, Christoph & Schlag, Christian, 2019. "Extreme inflation and time-varying consumption growth," Discussion Papers 16/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Tsai, Jerry & Wachter, Jessica A., 2018. "Pricing long-lived securities in dynamic endowment economies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 848-878.
    11. Sang Byung Seo & Jessica A. Wachter, 2019. "Option Prices in a Model with Stochastic Disaster Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(8), pages 3449-3469, August.
    12. Isoré, Marlène & Szczerbowicz, Urszula, 2017. "Disaster risk and preference shifts in a New Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 97-125.
    13. Juan Carlos Parra‐Alvarez & Olaf Posch & Andreas Schrimpf, 2022. "Peso problems in the estimation of the C‐CAPM," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(1), pages 259-313, January.
    14. Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2021. "Climate change and the financial system: a note," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 48(1), pages 5-13, March.
    15. Shigeta, Yuki, 2020. "Gain/loss asymmetric stochastic differential utility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    16. Xu Lin & Sweder van Wijnbergen, "undated". "The Social Cost of Carbon under Climate Volatility Risk," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-032/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    17. Lewis, Karen K. & Liu, Edith X., 2017. "Disaster risk and asset returns: An international perspective," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 42-58.
    18. Roy Kouwenberg & Chenglong Zheng, 2023. "A Review of the Global Climate Finance Literature," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-32, January.
    19. Wang, Chong & Wang, Neng & Yang, Jinqiang, 2016. "Optimal consumption and savings with stochastic income and recursive utility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 292-331.
    20. Sönksen, Jantje & Grammig, Joachim, 2021. "Empirical asset pricing with multi-period disaster risk: A simulation-based approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 805-832.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:54:y:2021:i:c:s1572308921000279. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jfstabil .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.