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A climate stress-test of the financial system

Author

Listed:
  • Stefano Battiston

    (CAMS - Centre d'Analyse et de Mathématique sociales - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Department of Banking and Finance - UZH - Universität Zürich [Zürich] = University of Zurich)

  • Antoine Mandel

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Irene Monasterolo

    (Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future - BU - Boston University [Boston])

  • Franziska Schütze

    (Global Climate Forum)

  • Gabriele Visentin

    (Department of Banking and Finance - UZH - Universität Zürich [Zürich] = University of Zurich)

Abstract

The urgency of estimating the impact of climate risks on the financial system is increasingly recognized among scholars and practitioners. By adopting a network approach to financial dependencies, we look at how climate policy risk might propagate through the financial system. We develop a network-based climate stress-test methodology and apply it to large Euro Area banks in a ‘green' and a ‘brown' scenario. We find that direct and indirect exposures to climate-policy-relevant sectors represent a large portion of investors' equity portfolios, especially for investment and pension funds. Additionally, the portion of banks' loan portfolios exposed to these sectors is comparable to banks' capital. Our results suggest that climate policy timing matters. An early and stable policy framework would allow for smooth asset value adjustments and lead to potential net winners and losers. In contrast, a late and abrupt policy framework could have adverse systemic consequences.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefano Battiston & Antoine Mandel & Irene Monasterolo & Franziska Schütze & Gabriele Visentin, 2017. "A climate stress-test of the financial system," Post-Print halshs-01905999, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01905999
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3255
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    Keywords

    Business; Governance;

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