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Rising Policy Uncertainty

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  • Steven J. Davis

Abstract

I review evidence of rising policy uncertainty in the U.S. and global economies, drawing heavily on newspaper-based measures. Examples from countries around the world illustrate the role of political and policy developments as drivers of fluctuations in economic uncertainty. I also highlight the prominent role of trade policy as a source of uncertainty and stock market volatility since March 2018, when U.S.-China tensions began to escalate. Lastly, I offer remarks on the interplay between policy uncertainty and economic performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven J. Davis, 2019. "Rising Policy Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 26243, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26243
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    Cited by:

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    3. Cosmas Dery & Apostolos Serletis, 2021. "Disentangling the Effects of Uncertainty, Monetary Policy and Leverage Shocks on the Economy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(5), pages 1029-1065, October.
    4. Khalid Khan & Jiluo Sun & Sinem Derindere Koseoglu & Ashfaq U. Rehman, 2021. "Revisiting Bitcoin Price Behavior Under Global Economic Uncertainty," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(3), pages 21582440211, August.
    5. Cosmas Dery & Apostolos Serletis, 2021. "The Relative Importance of Monetary Policy, Uncertainty, and Financial Shocks," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 311-333, April.
    6. Henning Vöpel & Harms Bandholz & Gabriel Felbermayr & Christoph Spengel & Jost Heckemeyer & Martin Mosler & Niklas Potrafke & Henrik Müller & Gabriel J. Felbermayr, 2020. "The US Before the Election Campaign: The Traces of Donald Trump in Business and Politics," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(01), pages 03-29, January.
    7. Jiahui Chen & Guangyu Nie, 2023. "Valuation Effects of US–China Trade Conflict: The Role of Institutional Investors," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 31(6), pages 56-78, November.
    8. Bonciani, Dario & Ricci, Martino, 2020. "The international effects of global financial uncertainty shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    9. Blagov, Boris & Müller, Henrik & Jentsch, Carsten & Schmidt, Torsten, 2021. "The investment narrative: Improving private investment forecasts with media data," Ruhr Economic Papers 921, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    10. Gazi I. Kara & Youngsuk Yook, 2023. "Policy Uncertainty and Bank Mortgage Credit," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(4), pages 783-823, June.
    11. Trebbi, Francesco & Canen, Nathan & Kendall, Chad, 2020. "Political Parties as Drivers of U.S. Polarization: 1927-2018," CEPR Discussion Papers 15607, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Bai, Xiwen, 2021. "Tanker freight rates and economic policy uncertainty: A wavelet-based copula approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    13. Wen, Qiang & Zhang, Teng, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and industrial pollution: The role of environmental supervision by local governments," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    14. Li, Xiang & Su, Dan, 2020. "How does economic policy uncertainty affect corporate debt maturity?," IWH Discussion Papers 6/2020, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    15. Mario Daniele Amore & Margherita Corina, 2021. "Political elections and corporate investment: International evidence," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 52(9), pages 1775-1796, December.
    16. Gazi I Kara & Youngsuk Yook, 2019. "Policy Uncertainty and Bank Mortgage Credit," BIS Working Papers 820, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. C. Biliotti & F. J. Bargagli-Stoffi & N. Fraccaroli & M. Puliga & M. Riccaboni, 2022. "Breaking Down the Lockdown: The Causal Effects of Stay-At-Home Mandates on Uncertainty and Sentiments During the COVID-19 Pandemic," Papers 2212.01705, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    18. Patrizia Casadei & Simona Iammarino, 2021. "Trade policy shocks in the UK textile and apparel value chain: Firm perceptions of Brexit uncertainty," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(2), pages 262-285, June.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

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