IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/moneco/v118y2021icp381-398.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Policy uncertainty, lender of last resort and the real economy

Author

Listed:
  • Jasova, Martina
  • Mendicino, Caterina
  • Supera, Dominik

Abstract

A reduction in lender of last resort (LOLR) policy uncertainty positively affects bank lending and propagates to investment and employment. We exploit a unique policy that reduced uncertainty regarding the availability of future LOLR funding for banks as a quasi-natural experiment. Using micro-level data on banks, firms and loans in Portugal, we generate cross-sectional variation in banks’ exposure to uncertainty and find that the size of the haircut subsidy - the gap between private market and central bank security valuations - plays a key role in the propagation of the shock to lending and the real economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Jasova, Martina & Mendicino, Caterina & Supera, Dominik, 2021. "Policy uncertainty, lender of last resort and the real economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 381-398.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:118:y:2021:i:c:p:381-398
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.12.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304393220301331
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.12.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Reint Gropp & Thomas Mosk & Steven Ongena & Carlo Wix, 2019. "Banks Response to Higher Capital Requirements: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(1), pages 266-299.
    2. Caldara, Dario & Iacoviello, Matteo & Molligo, Patrick & Prestipino, Andrea & Raffo, Andrea, 2020. "The economic effects of trade policy uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 38-59.
    3. Nuno Cassola & Ali Hortaçsu & Jakub Kastl, 2013. "The 2007 Subprime Market Crisis Through the Lens of European Central Bank Auctions for Short‐Term Funds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(4), pages 1309-1345, July.
    4. Kilian Huber, 2018. "Disentangling the Effects of a Banking Crisis: Evidence from German Firms and Counties," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(3), pages 868-898, March.
    5. Florian Heider & Farzad Saidi & Glenn Schepens, 2019. "Life below Zero: Bank Lending under Negative Policy Rates," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(10), pages 3728-3761.
    6. Lubos Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2012. "Uncertainty about Government Policy and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1219-1264, August.
    7. Andrew Hauser, 2014. "Lender of last resort operations during the financial crisis: seven practical lessons from the United Kingdom," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Re-thinking the lender of last resort, volume 79, pages 81-92, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Jonathan H. Wright, 2012. "What does Monetary Policy do to Long‐term Interest Rates at the Zero Lower Bound?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 447-466, November.
    9. Jiménez, Gabriel & Ongena, Steven & Peydró, José-Luis & Saurina, Jesús, 2012. "Credit Supply and Monetary Policy: Identifying the Bank Balance-Sheet Channel with Loan Applications," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(5), pages 2301-2326.
    10. Laura Blattner & Luisa Farinha & Francisca Rebelo, 2017. "When Losses Turn Into Loans: The Cost of Undercapitalized Banks," 2017 Papers pbl215, Job Market Papers.
    11. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    12. Asim Ijaz Khwaja & Atif Mian, 2008. "Tracing the Impact of Bank Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1413-1442, September.
    13. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    14. Bagehot, Walter, 1873. "Lombard Street: A Description of the Money Market," History of Economic Thought Books, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, number bagehot1873.
    15. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1, March.
    16. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
    17. Altavilla, Carlo & Burlon, Lorenzo & Giannetti, Mariassunta & Holton, Sarah, 2022. "Is there a zero lower bound? The effects of negative policy rates on banks and firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 885-907.
    18. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Keith Kuester & Juan Rubio-Ramírez, 2015. "Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(11), pages 3352-3384, November.
    19. Gabriel Jiménez & Steven Ongena & José‐Luis Peydró & Jesús Saurina, 2014. "Hazardous Times for Monetary Policy: What Do Twenty‐Three Million Bank Loans Say About the Effects of Monetary Policy on Credit Risk‐Taking?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(2), pages 463-505, March.
    20. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Stefan Nagel & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2018. "ECB Policies Involving Government Bond Purchases: Impact and Channels [The “greatest” carry trade ever? Understanding eurozone bank risks]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 1-44.
    21. Itamar Drechsler & Thomas Drechsel & David Marques-Ibanez & Philipp Schnabl, 2016. "Who Borrows from the Lender of Last Resort?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(5), pages 1933-1974, October.
    22. Margherita Bottero & Ms. Camelia Minoiu & José-Luis Peydró & Andrea Polo & Mr. Andrea F Presbitero & Enrico Sette, 2019. "Negative Monetary Policy Rates and Portfolio Rebalancing: Evidence from Credit Register Data," IMF Working Papers 2019/044, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Carla Soares & Diana Bonfim & Nuno Alves, 2016. "Surviving the perfect storm: the role of the lender of last resort," Working Papers w201617, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    24. Mary Amiti & David E. Weinstein, 2018. "How Much Do Idiosyncratic Bank Shocks Affect Investment? Evidence from Matched Bank-Firm Loan Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 525-587.
    25. Jiménez, Gabriel & Mian, Atif & Peydró, José-Luis & Saurina, Jesús, 2020. "The Real Effects of the Bank Lending Channel," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 115, pages 162-179.
    26. Rodrik, Dani, 1991. "Policy uncertainty and private investment in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 229-242, October.
    27. Indraneel Chakraborty & Itay Goldstein & Andrew MacKinlay, 2018. "Housing Price Booms and Crowding-Out Effects in Bank Lending," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(7), pages 2806-2853.
    28. Swanson, Eric T., 2021. "Measuring the effects of federal reserve forward guidance and asset purchases on financial markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 32-53.
    29. António Antunes & Homero Gonçalves & Pedro Prego, 2017. "Firm default probabilities revisited," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Uses of central balance sheet data offices' information, volume 45, Bank for International Settlements.
    30. Iyer, Rajkamal & Da-Rocha-Lopes, Samuel & Peydró, José-Luis & Schoar, Antoinette, 2014. "Interbank Liquidity Crunch and the Firm Credit Crunch: Evidence from the 2007-2009 Crisis," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 27(1), pages 347-372.
    31. Bryan Kelly & Ľuboš Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2016. "The Price of Political Uncertainty: Theory and Evidence from the Option Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(5), pages 2417-2480, October.
    32. Luck, Stephan & Zimmermann, Tom, 2020. "Employment effects of unconventional monetary policy: Evidence from QE," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(3), pages 678-703.
    33. Alexander Rodnyansky & Olivier M. Darmouni, 2017. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Bank Lending Behavior," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(11), pages 3858-3887.
    34. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Charles L. Evans & Jonas D.M. Fisher & Alejandro Justiniano, 2012. "Macroeconomic Effects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(1 (Spring), pages 1-80.
    35. Jeremy C. Stein & Anil K. Kashyap, 2000. "What Do a Million Observations on Banks Say about the Transmission of Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 407-428, June.
    36. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, 2014. "The Employment Effects of Credit Market Disruptions: Firm-level Evidence from the 2008-9 Financial Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(1), pages 1-59.
    37. Sjoerd Van Bekkum & Marc Gabarro & Rustom M. Irani, 2018. "Does a Larger Menu Increase Appetite? Collateral Eligibility and Credit Supply," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(3), pages 943-979.
    38. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, "undated". "The Employment Effects of Credit Market Disruptions: Firm-level Evidence from the 2008-09 Financial Crisis," Working Paper 90811, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    39. Berger, Allen N. & Black, Lamont K. & Bouwman, Christa H.S. & Dlugosz, Jennifer, 2017. "Bank loan supply responses to Federal Reserve emergency liquidity facilities," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1-15.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Corradin, Stefano & Sundaresan, Suresh, 2022. "LOLR policies, banks' borrowing capacities and funding structures," Working Paper Series 2738, European Central Bank.
    2. Diana Bonfim & Geraldo Cerqueiro & Hans Degryse & Steven Ongena, 2023. "On-Site Inspecting Zombie Lending," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(5), pages 2547-2567, May.
    3. Costola, Michele & Iacopini, Matteo, 2023. "Measuring sovereign bond fragmentation in the Eurozone," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    4. Peydró, José-Luis & Jasova, Martina & Mendicino, Caterina & Panetti, Ettore & Supera, Dominik, 2021. "Monetary Policy, Labor Income Redistribution and the Credit Channel: Evidence from Matched Employer-Employee and Credit Registe," CEPR Discussion Papers 16549, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Alves, Nuno & Bonfim, Diana & Soares, Carla, 2021. "Surviving the perfect storm: The role of the lender of last resort☆," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    6. Gil Nogueira & Luísa Farinha & Laura Blattner, 2021. "Not All Shocks Are Created Equal: Assessing Heterogeneity in the Bank Lending Channel," Working Papers w202120, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    7. Antonis Kotidis & Dimitris Malliaropulos & Elias Papaioannou, 2022. "Public and private liquidity during crises times: evidence from Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) to Greek banks," Working Papers 304, Bank of Greece.
    8. Laeven, Luc & Maddaloni, Angela & Mendicino, Caterina, 2022. "Monetary and macroprudential policies: trade-offs and interactions," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 92.
    9. Barbiero, Francesca & Burlon, Lorenzo & Dimou, Maria & Toczynski, Jan, 2022. "Targeted monetary policy, dual rates and bank risk taking," Working Paper Series 2682, European Central Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jasova, Martina & Mendicino, Caterina & Supera, Dominik, 2021. "Policy uncertainty, lender of last resort and the real economy," Working Paper Series 2521, European Central Bank.
    2. Albertazzi, Ugo & Barbiero, Francesca & Marqués-Ibáñez, David & Popov, Alexander & Rodriguez d’Acri, Costanza & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2020. "Monetary policy and bank stability: the analytical toolbox reviewed," Working Paper Series 2377, European Central Bank.
    3. Peydró, José-Luis & Polo, Andrea & Sette, Enrico, 2021. "Monetary policy at work: Security and credit application registers evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(3), pages 789-814.
    4. Carpinelli, Luisa & Crosignani, Matteo, 2021. "The design and transmission of central bank liquidity provisions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 27-47.
    5. Ozan Güler & Mike Mariathasan & Klaas Mulier & Nejat G. Okatan, 2021. "The real effects of banks' corporate credit supply: A literature review," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(3), pages 1252-1285, July.
    6. Rhys Bidder & John Krainer & Adam Shapiro, 2021. "De-leveraging or de-risking? How banks cope with loss," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 39, pages 100-127, January.
    7. C. Cahn & A. Duquerroy & W. Mullins, 2017. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and Bank Lending Relationships," Working papers 659, Banque de France.
    8. Martina Jasova & Caterina Mendicino & Ettore Panetti & José-Luis Peydró & Dominik Supera, 2021. "Monetary policy, labor income redistribution and the credit channel: Evidence from matched employer-employee and credit registers," Economics Working Papers 1832, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2023.
    9. Bottero, Margherita & Minoiu, Camelia & Peydró, José-Luis & Polo, Andrea & Presbitero, Andrea F. & Sette, Enrico, 2022. "Expansionary yet different: Credit supply and real effects of negative interest rate policy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 754-778.
    10. Bednarek, Peter & Dinger, Valeriya & te Kaat, Daniel Marcel & von Westernhagen, Natalja, 2020. "Central bank funding and credit risk-taking," Discussion Papers 36/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    11. Rhys Bidder & John Krainer & Adam Shapiro, 2021. "De-leveraging or de-risking? How banks cope with loss," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 39, pages 100-127, January.
    12. Berger, Allen N. & Molyneux, Phil & Wilson, John O.S., 2020. "Banks and the real economy: An assessment of the research," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    13. Acharya, Viral V. & Imbierowicz, Björn & Steffen, Sascha & Teichmann, Daniel, 2020. "Does the lack of financial stability impair the transmission of monetary policy?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 342-365.
    14. Liu, Xiaoling & Wu, Yuhui & Zhang, Huan, 2023. "Collateral-based monetary policy and corporate employment: Evidence from Medium-term Lending Facility in China," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    15. Ivashina, Victoria & Laeven, Luc & Moral-Benito, Enrique, 2022. "Loan types and the bank lending channel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 171-187.
    16. Carlo Altavilla & Miguel Boucinha & Sarah Holton & Steven Ongena, 2021. "Credit Supply and Demand in Unconventional Times," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(8), pages 2071-2098, December.
    17. Benetton, Matteo & Fantino, Davide, 2021. "Targeted monetary policy and bank lending behavior," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 404-429.
    18. Peydró, José-Luis & Jiménez, Gabriel & Kenan, Huremovic & Moral-Benito, Enrique & Vega-Redondo, Fernando, 2020. "Production and financial networks in interplay: Crisis evidence from supplier-customer and credit registers," CEPR Discussion Papers 15277, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Alfaro, Laura & García-Santana, Manuel & Moral-Benito, Enrique, 2021. "On the direct and indirect real effects of credit supply shocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(3), pages 895-921.
    20. Burietz, Aurore & Picault, Matthieu, 2023. "To lend or not to lend? The ECB as the ‘intermediary of last resort’," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank credit; Central bank commitment; Real effects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:118:y:2021:i:c:p:381-398. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.