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The 2007 Subprime Market Crisis Through the Lens of European Central Bank Auctions for Short‐Term Funds

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  • Nuno Cassola
  • Ali Hortaçsu
  • Jakub Kastl

Abstract

In this paper we study European banks’ demand for short-term funds (liquidity) during the summer 2007 subprime market crisis. We use bidding data from the European Central Bank’s auctions for one-week loans, their main channel of monetary policy implementation. Through a model of bidding, we show that banks’ behavior reflects their cost of obtaining short-term funds elsewhere (i.e., in the interbank market) as well as a strategic response to other bidders. We find considerable heterogeneity across banks in their willingness to pay for short-term funds supplied in these auctions. Accounting for the strategic component is important: while a naive interpretation of the raw bidding data may suggest that virtually all banks suffered a dramatic increase in the cost of obtaining funds in the interbank market, we find that for about one third of the banks, the change in bidding behavior was simply a strategic response. Using a complementary data set, we also find that banks’ pre-turmoil liquidity costs, as estimated by our model, are predictive of their post-turmoil liquidity costs, and that there is considerable heterogeneity in these costs with respect to the country-of-origin. Finally, among the publicly traded banks, the willingness to pay for short-term funds in the second half of 2007 are predictive of stock prices in late 2008.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Econometric Society in its journal Econometrica.

Volume (Year): 81 (2013)
Issue (Month): 4 (07)
Pages: 1309-1345

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Handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:81:y:2013:i:4:p:1309-1345

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  1. Adam B. Ashcraft & Morten L. Bech & W. Scott Frame, 2008. "The Federal Home Loan Bank System: the lender of next-to-last resort?," Staff Reports 357, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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  4. Christian Ewerhart & Nuno Cassola & Natacha Valla, 2007. "Declining Valuations And Equilibrium Bidding In Central Bank Refinancing Operations," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 07-22, Swiss Finance Institute.
  5. John B. Taylor & John C. Williams, 2008. "A black swan in the money market," Working Paper Series 2008-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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  8. Athey, Susan & Haile, Philip A., 2007. "Nonparametric Approaches to Auctions," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 60 Elsevier.
  9. Bindseil, Ulrich & Nyborg, Kjell G & Strebulaev, Ilya, 2004. "Bidding and Performance in Repo Auctions: Evidence from ECB Open Market Operations," CEPR Discussion Papers 4367, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Arnold, Lutz G., 2005. "On the Possibility of Credit Rationing in the Stiglitz-Weiss Model," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 403, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
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  14. Kastl, Jakub, 2012. "On the properties of equilibria in private value divisible good auctions with constrained bidding," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(6), pages 339-352.
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Cited by:
  1. Jason Allen & Ali Hortaçsu & Jakub Kastl, 2011. "Analyzing Default Risk and Liquidity Demand during a Financial Crisis: The Case of Canada," Working Papers 11-17, Bank of Canada.
  2. Galina Hale & Maurice Obstfeld, 2014. "The Euro and The Geography of International Debt Flows," NBER Working Papers 20033, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Vives, Xavier, 2011. "A large-market rational expectations equilibrium model," IESE Research Papers D/924, IESE Business School.
  4. Xavier Vives, 2009. "Strategic Supply Function Competition with Private Information," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1736, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  5. Massimiliano Affinito, 2013. "Central bank refinancing, interbank markets, and the hypothesis of liquidity hoarding: evidence from a euro-area banking system," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 928, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  6. Raddatz, Claudio, 2010. "When the rivers run dry : liquidity and the use of wholesale funds in the transmission of the U.S. subprime crisis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5203, The World Bank.

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