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The 2007 subprime market crisis through the lens of European Central Bank auctions for short-term funds

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  • Cassola, Nuno
  • Hortacsu, Ali
  • Kastl, Jakub

Abstract

We study European banks’ demand for short-term funds (liquidity) during the summer 2007 subprime market crisis. We use bidding data from the European Central Bank’s auctions for one-week loans, their main channel of monetary policy implementation. Our analysis provides a high-frequency, disaggregated perspective on the 2007 crisis, which was previously studied through comparisons of collateralized and uncollateralized interbank money market rates which do not capture the heterogeneous impact of the crisis on individual banks. Through a model of bidding, we show that banks’ bids reflect their cost of obtaining short-term funds elsewhere (e.g., in the interbank market) as well as a strategic response to other bidders. The strategic response is empirically important: while a naïve interpretation of the raw bidding data may suggest that virtually all banks suffered an increase in the cost of short-term funding, we find that for about one third of the banks, the change in bidding behavior was simply a strategic response. We also find considerable heterogeneity in the short-term funding costs among banks: for over one third of the bidders, funding costs increased by more than 20 basis points, and funding costs vary widely with respect to the country-of-origin. Estimated funding costs of banks are also predictive of market- and accounting-based measures of bank performance, suggesting the external validity of our findings. JEL Classification: D44, E58, G01

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1374.

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Date of creation: Aug 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20111374

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Keywords: liquidity crisis; Multiunit auctions; primary market; structural estimation; subprime market;

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References

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  1. Arnold, Lutz G., 2005. "On the Possibility of Credit Rationing in the Stiglitz-Weiss Model," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 403, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
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  3. Ewerhart, Christian & Cassola, Nuno & Valla, Natacha, 2006. "Declining valuations and equilibrium bidding in central bank refinancing operations," Working Paper Series 0668, European Central Bank.
  4. François-Louis Michaud & Christian Upper, 2008. "What drives interbank rates? Evidence from the Libor panel," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
  5. Bindseil, Ulrich & Nyborg, Kjell G & Strebulaev, Ilya, 2004. "Bidding and Performance in Repo Auctions: Evidence from ECB Open Market Operations," CEPR Discussion Papers 4367, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Eisenschmidt, Jens & Tapking, Jens, 2009. "Liquidity risk premia in unsecured interbank money markets," Working Paper Series 1025, European Central Bank.
  7. Adam Ashcraft & Morten L. Bech & W. Scott Frame, 2009. "The Federal Home Loan Bank System: the lender of next-to-last resort?," Working Paper 2009-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  8. John B. Taylor & John C. Williams, 2009. "A black swan in the money market," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jan.
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  10. Athey, Susan & Haile, Philip A., 2007. "Nonparametric Approaches to Auctions," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 60 Elsevier.
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  12. Kastl, Jakub, 2012. "On the properties of equilibria in private value divisible good auctions with constrained bidding," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(6), pages 339-352.
  13. Ethan Cohen-Cole & Burcu Duygan-Bump & José Fillat & Judit Montoriol-Garriga, 2008. "Looking behind the aggregates: a reply to “Facts and Myths about the Financial Crisis of 2008”," Risk and Policy Analysis Unit Working Paper QAU08-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
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Cited by:
  1. Galina Hale & Maurice Obstfeld, 2014. "The Euro and The Geography of International Debt Flows," NBER Working Papers 20033, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Vives, Xavier, 2011. "A Large-Market Rational Expectations Equilibrium Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 8426, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Xavier Vives, 2009. "Strategic Supply Function Competition with Private Information," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1736, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  4. Raddatz, Claudio, 2010. "When the rivers run dry : liquidity and the use of wholesale funds in the transmission of the U.S. subprime crisis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5203, The World Bank.
  5. Massimiliano Affinito, 2013. "Central bank refinancing, interbank markets, and the hypothesis of liquidity hoarding: evidence from a euro-area banking system," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 928, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  6. Jason Allen & Ali Hortaçsu & Jakub Kastl, 2011. "Analyzing Default Risk and Liquidity Demand during a Financial Crisis: The Case of Canada," Working Papers 11-17, Bank of Canada.

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