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The 2007 Subprime Market Crisis Through the Lens of European Central Bank Auctions for Short-Term Funds

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  • Nuno Cassola
  • Ali Hortacsu
  • Jakub Kastl

Abstract

In this paper we study European banks’ demand for short-term funds (liquidity) during the summer 2007 subprime market crisis. We use bidding data from the European Central Bank’s auctions for one-week loans, their main channel of monetary policy implementation. Through a model of bidding, we show that banks’ behavior reflects their cost of obtaining short-term funds elsewhere (i.e., in the interbank market) as well as a strategic response to other bidders. We find considerable heterogeneity across banks in their willingness to pay for short-term funds supplied in these auctions. Accounting for the strategic component is important: while a naive interpretation of the raw bidding data may suggest that virtually all banks suffered a dramatic increase in the cost of obtaining funds in the interbank market, we find that for about one third of the banks, the change in bidding behavior was simply a strategic response. Using a complementary data set, we also find that banks’ pre-turmoil liquidity costs, as estimated by our model, are predictive of their post-turmoil liquidity costs, and that there is considerable heterogeneity in these costs with respect to the country-of-origin. Finally, among the publicly traded banks, the willingness to pay for short-term funds in the second half of 2007 are predictive of stock prices in late 2008.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 15158.

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Date of creation: Jul 2009
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Publication status: published as Nuno Cassola & Ali Hortaçsu & Jakub Kastl, 2013. "The 2007 Subprime Market Crisis Through the Lens of European Central Bank Auctions for Short‐Term Funds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(4), pages 1309-1345, 07.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15158

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  1. Ewerhart, Christian & Tapking, Jens, 2008. "Repo markets, counterparty risk and the 2007/2008 liquidity crisis," Working Paper Series 0909, European Central Bank.
  2. Viral V. Acharya & Philipp Schnabl & Gustavo Suarez, 2010. "Securitization without risk transfer," NBER Working Papers 15730, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Lutz G. Arnold & John G. Riley, 2009. "On the Possibility of Credit Rationing in the Stiglitz-Weiss Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(5), pages 2012-21, December.
  4. Eisenschmidt, Jens & Tapking, Jens, 2009. "Liquidity risk premia in unsecured interbank money markets," Working Paper Series 1025, European Central Bank.
  5. John B. Taylor & John C. Williams, 2008. "A black swan in the money market," Working Paper Series 2008-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  6. Bindseil, Ulrich & Nyborg, Kjell G & Strebulaev, Ilya, 2004. "Bidding and Performance in Repo Auctions: Evidence from ECB Open Market Operations," CEPR Discussion Papers 4367, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Athey, Susan & Haile, Philip A., 2007. "Nonparametric Approaches to Auctions," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 60 Elsevier.
  8. Ethan Cohen-Cole & Burcu Duygan-Bump & José Fillat & Judit Montoriol-Garriga, 2008. "Looking behind the aggregates: a reply to “Facts and Myths about the Financial Crisis of 2008”," Risk and Policy Analysis Unit Working Paper QAU08-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  9. Kastl, Jakub, 2012. "On the properties of equilibria in private value divisible good auctions with constrained bidding," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(6), pages 339-352.
  10. Eisenschmidt, Jens & Hirsch, Astrid & Linzert, Tobias, 2009. "Bidding behaviour in the ECB’s main refinancing operations during the financial crisis," Working Paper Series 1052, European Central Bank.
  11. Adam Ashcraft & Morten L. Bech & W. Scott Frame, 2009. "The Federal Home Loan Bank System: the lender of next-to-last resort?," Working Paper 2009-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  12. François-Louis Michaud & Christian Upper, 2008. "What drives interbank rates? Evidence from the Libor panel," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
  13. Ewerhart, Christian & Cassola, Nuno & Valla, Natacha, 2010. "Declining valuations and equilibrium bidding in central bank refinancing operations," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 30-43, January.
  14. Breusch, T S & Pagan, A R, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 239-53, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Jason Allen & Ali Hortaçsu & Jakub Kastl, 2011. "Analyzing Default Risk and Liquidity Demand during a Financial Crisis: The Case of Canada," Working Papers 11-17, Bank of Canada.
  2. Xavier Vives, 2009. "Strategic Supply Function Competition with Private Information," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1736, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  3. Hale, Galina & Obstfeld, Maurice, 2014. "The euro and the geography of international debt flows," Working Paper Series 2014-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. Xavier Vives, 2011. "A Large-Market Rational Expectations Equilibrium Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 3485, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Massimiliano Affinito, 2013. "Central bank refinancing, interbank markets, and the hypothesis of liquidity hoarding: evidence from a euro-area banking system," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 928, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  6. Raddatz, Claudio, 2010. "When the rivers run dry : liquidity and the use of wholesale funds in the transmission of the U.S. subprime crisis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5203, The World Bank.

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