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How Much do Bank Shocks Affect Investment? Evidence from Matched Bank-Firm Loan Data

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  • Mary Amiti
  • David E. Weinstein

Abstract

We show that supply-side financial shocks have a large impact on firms’ investment. We do this by developing a new methodology to separate firm-borrowing shocks from bank supply shocks using a vast sample of matched bank-firm lending data. We decompose loan movements in Japan for the period 1990 to 2010 into bank, firm, industry, and common shocks. The high degree of financial institution concentration means that individual banks are large relative to the size of the economy, which creates a role for granular shocks as in Gabaix (2011). As a result, bank supply shocks—i.e., movements in the supply of bank loans net of borrower characteristics and general credit conditions—can have large impacts on aggregate loan supply and investment. We show that these bank supply shocks explain 40 percent of aggregate loan and investment fluctuations.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 18890.

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Date of creation: Mar 2013
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18890

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  1. Matías Braun & Borja Larrain, 2005. "Finance and the Business Cycle: International, Inter-Industry Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1097-1128, 06.
  2. Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren, 2003. "Unnatural Selection: Perverse Incentives and the Misallocation of Credit in Japan," NBER Working Papers 9643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Dell''Ariccia, Giovanni & Detragiache, Enrica & Rajan, Raghuram G, 2005. "The Real Effect of Banking Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 5088, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Adam B. Ashcraft, 2001. "New evidence on the lending channel," Staff Reports 136, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  5. Franziska Bremus & Claudia M. Buch & Katheryn N. Russ & Monika Schnitzer, 2013. "Big Banks and Macroeconomic Outcomes: Theory and Cross-Country Evidence of Granularity," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1348, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  6. Adam B. Ashcraft, 2005. "Are Banks Really Special? New Evidence from the FDIC-Induced Failure of Healthy Banks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1712-1730, December.
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  10. Asim Ijaz Khwaja & Atif Mian, 2008. "Tracing the Impact of Bank Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1413-42, September.
  11. Klingebiel, Daniela & Kroszner, Randall S & Laeven, Luc, 2006. "Banking Crises, Financial Dependence and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 5623, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Michael Klein & Joe Peek & Eric Rosengren, 2000. "Troubled Banks, Impaired Foreign Direct Investment: The Role of Relative Access to Credit," NBER Working Papers 7845, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Daniel Paravisini, 2008. "Local Bank Financial Constraints and Firm Access to External Finance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(5), pages 2161-2193, October.
  14. Masaya Sakuragawa & Yoshitsugu Watanabe, 2009. "Did the Japanese Stock Market Appropriately Price the Takenaka Financial Reform?," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Sector Development in the Pacific Rim, East Asia Seminar on Economics, Volume 18, pages 317-340 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Xavier Gabaix, 2009. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 15286, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Montgomery, Heather & Shimizutani, Satoshi, 2009. "The effectiveness of bank recapitalization policies in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-25, January.
  17. Jeremy C. Stein & Anil K. Kashyap, 2000. "What Do a Million Observations on Banks Say about the Transmission of Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 407-428, June.
  18. Tobias Adrian & Paolo Colla & Hyun Song Shin, 2012. "Which Financial Frictions? Parsing the Evidence from the Financial Crisis of 2007-9," NBER Working Papers 18335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Francisco J. Buera & Roberto Fattal-Jaef & Yongseok Shin, 2014. "Anatomy of a Credit Crunch: From Capital to Labor Markets," NBER Working Papers 19997, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Chava, Sudheer & Purnanandam, Amiyatosh, 2011. "The effect of banking crisis on bank-dependent borrowers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 116-135, January.
  21. Gan, Jie, 2007. "Collateral, debt capacity, and corporate investment: Evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(3), pages 709-734, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Franziska Bremus & Claudia M. Buch, 2013. "Granularity in Banking and Growth: Does Financial Openness Matter?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1346, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  2. Franziska Bremus, 2013. "Cross-Border Banking, Bank Market Structures and Market Power: Theory and Cross-Country Evidence," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1344, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  3. Steven Ongena & Jose Luis Peydro & Neeltje van Horen, 2013. "Shocks Abroad, Pain at Home? Bank-Firm Level Evidence on the International Transmission of Financial Shocks," DNB Working Papers 385, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

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