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How Much do Bank Shocks Affect Investment? Evidence from Matched Bank-Firm Loan Data

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  • Mary Amiti
  • David E. Weinstein

Abstract

We show that supply-side financial shocks have a large impact on firms’ investment. We do this by developing a new methodology to separate firm-borrowing shocks from bank supply shocks using a vast sample of matched bank-firm lending data. We decompose loan movements in Japan for the period 1990 to 2010 into bank, firm, industry, and common shocks. The high degree of financial institution concentration means that individual banks are large relative to the size of the economy, which creates a role for granular shocks as in Gabaix (2011). As a result, bank supply shocks—i.e., movements in the supply of bank loans net of borrower characteristics and general credit conditions—can have large impacts on aggregate loan supply and investment. We show that these bank supply shocks explain 40 percent of aggregate loan and investment fluctuations.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 18890.

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Date of creation: Mar 2013
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18890

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  1. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Raghuram Rajan & Enrica Detragiache, 2005. "The Real Effect of Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 05/63, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Montgomery, Heather & Shimizutani, Satoshi, 2009. "The effectiveness of bank recapitalization policies in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-25, January.
  3. R. Glenn Hubbard & Kenneth N. Kuttner & Darius N. Palia, 1999. "Are there "bank effects" in borrowers' costs of funds? Evidence from a matched sample of borrowers and banks," Staff Reports 78, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  4. Amel, Dean & Barnes, Colleen & Panetta, Fabio & Salleo, Carmelo, 2004. "Consolidation and efficiency in the financial sector: A review of the international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 2493-2519, October.
  5. Franziska Bremus & Claudia M. Buch & Katheryn N. Russ & Monika Schnitzer, 2013. "Big Banks and Macroeconomic Outcomes: Theory and Cross-Country Evidence of Granularity," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1348, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  6. Masaya Sakuragawa & Yoshitsugu Watanabe, 2009. "Did the Japanese Stock Market Appropriately Price the Takenaka Financial Reform?," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Sector Development in the Pacific Rim, East Asia Seminar on Economics, Volume 18, pages 317-340 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Jeremy C. Stein & Anil K. Kashyap, 2000. "What Do a Million Observations on Banks Say about the Transmission of Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 407-428, June.
  8. Xavier Gabaix, 2005. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," 2005 Meeting Papers 470, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  9. Matías Braun & Borja Larrain, 2005. "Finance and the Business Cycle: International, Inter-Industry Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1097-1128, 06.
  10. Sudheer Chava & Amiyatosh Purnanandam, 2006. "The effect of a banking crisis on bank-dependent borrowers," Proceedings 1030, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  11. Adam B. Ashcraft, 2003. "Are banks really special? New evidence from the FDIC-induced failure of healthy banks," Staff Reports 176, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  12. Michael W. Klein & Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren, 2002. "Troubled Banks, Impaired Foreign Direct Investment: The Role of Relative Access to Credit," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(3), pages 664-682, June.
  13. Atif Mian & Asim Ijaz Khwaja, 2006. "Tracing the Impact of Bank Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market," NBER Working Papers 12612, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Adam B. Ashcraft, 2001. "New evidence on the lending channel," Staff Reports 136, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  15. Daniel Paravisini, 2008. "Local Bank Financial Constraints and Firm Access to External Finance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(5), pages 2161-2193, October.
  16. Klingebiel, Daniela & Kroszner, Randall S & Laeven, Luc, 2006. "Banking Crises, Financial Dependence and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 5623, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren, 2003. "Unnatural Selection: Perverse Incentives and the Misallocation of Credit in Japan," NBER Working Papers 9643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Claudia M. Buch & Katja Neugebauer, 2010. "Bank-Specific Shocks and the Real Economy," Working Paper / FINESS 2.3, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  19. Tobias Adrian & Paolo Colla & Hyun Song Shin, 2012. "Which Financial Frictions? Parsing the Evidence from the Financial Crisis of 2007-9," NBER Working Papers 18335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Gan, Jie, 2007. "Collateral, debt capacity, and corporate investment: Evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(3), pages 709-734, September.
  21. Francisco J. Buera & Roberto Fattal-Jaef & Yongseok Shin, 2014. "Anatomy of a Credit Crunch: From Capital to Labor Markets," NBER Working Papers 19997, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Franziska Bremus, 2013. "Cross-Border Banking, Bank Market Structures and Market Power: Theory and Cross-Country Evidence," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1344, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  2. F. Bremus & Claudia M. Buch, 2013. "Granularity in Banking and Growth: Does Financial Openness Matter?," IWH Discussion Papers 14, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
  3. Ongena, S. & Peydro, J.L. & Horen, N. van, 2013. "Shocks Abroad, Pain at Home? Bank-firm Level Evidence on the International Transmission of Financial Shocks," Discussion Paper 2013-040, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  4. Claudia M. Buch & Oliver Holtemöller, 2014. "Do We Need New Modelling Approaches in Macroeconomics?," IWH Discussion Papers 8, Halle Institute for Economic Research.

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