IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jimfin/v131y2023ics0261560622002029.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Inflation, interest rate, and firm efficiency: The impact of policy uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Tarkom, Augustine
  • Ujah, Nacasius U.

Abstract

This study investigates the effect of inflation and interest rate on firm efficiency while exploring the role of policy uncertainty. Not a misnomer, macroeconomic conditions matter, and their impact on business strategy are inherently observed directly or indirectly. Yet, there is still a shortage of literature relating inflation and interest rate through the moderating effect of policy uncertainty on firm efficiency. With 92,293 observations from 12,207 US firms, we find that inflation positively affects firm efficiency, and interest rate negatively affects firms’ efficiency. Similarly, the moderating effect of policy uncertainty amplifies the significance of inflation and interest rate. Further examination of the moderating impact finds a positive directionality for both macroeconomic conditions for larger firms, firms that pay dividends, firms with a higher cost of goods and services and higher sales, and firms located in the Midwest region. The results are robust to firm-year fixed effects and clustering approaches.

Suggested Citation

  • Tarkom, Augustine & Ujah, Nacasius U., 2023. "Inflation, interest rate, and firm efficiency: The impact of policy uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:131:y:2023:i:c:s0261560622002029
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2022.102799
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560622002029
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2022.102799?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gilchrist, Simon & Himmelberg, Charles P., 1995. "Evidence on the role of cash flow for investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 541-572, December.
    2. Gita Gopinath & Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Loukas Karabarbounis & Carolina Villegas-Sanchez, 2017. "Capital Allocation and Productivity in South Europe," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 132(4), pages 1915-1967.
    3. Trip, G. & Thijssen, G. J. & Renkema, J. A. & Huirne, R. B. M., 2002. "Measuring managerial efficiency: the case of commercial greenhouse growers," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 175-181, August.
    4. Christopher A. Hennessy & Toni M. Whited, 2007. "How Costly Is External Financing? Evidence from a Structural Estimation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1705-1745, August.
    5. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Nelson C. Mark & Robert J. Sonora, 2002. "Price Index Convergence Among United States Cities," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 43(4), pages 1081-1099, November.
    6. Banegas, Ayelen & Tase, Manjola, 2020. "Reserve balances, the federal funds market and arbitrage in the new regulatory framework," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    7. Vanita Tripathi & Ritika Seth, 2014. "Stock Market Performance and Macroeconomic Factors: The Study of Indian Equity Market," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 15(2), pages 291-316, June.
    8. Nguyen, Nam H. & Phan, Hieu V., 2017. "Policy Uncertainty and Mergers and Acquisitions," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(2), pages 613-644, April.
    9. Sean Cleary, 1999. "The Relationship between Firm Investment and Financial Status," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(2), pages 673-692, April.
    10. Flannery, Mark J & James, Christopher M, 1984. "The Effect of Interest Rate Changes on the Common Stock Returns of Financial Institutions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1141-1153, September.
    11. Nataliia Ostapenko, 2020. "Identification Of Monetary Policy Shocks From Fomc Transcripts," University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Working Paper Series 123, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia).
    12. Wang, Yizhong & Chen, Carl R. & Huang, Ying Sophie, 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate investment: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 227-243.
    13. John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2004. "Inflation Illusion and Stock Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 19-23, May.
    14. Samuel M. Hartzmark, 2016. "Economic Uncertainty and Interest Rates," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 179-220.
    15. Lubos Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2012. "Uncertainty about Government Policy and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1219-1264, August.
    16. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-565, September.
    17. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1984. "The causes of inflation," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-32.
    18. Steven A. Sharpe, 2002. "Reexamining Stock Valuation and Inflation: The Implications Of Analysts' Earnings Forecasts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 632-648, November.
    19. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    20. Bekaert, Geert & Engstrom, Eric, 2010. "Inflation and the stock market: Understanding the "Fed Model"," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 278-294, April.
    21. Charnes, A. & Cooper, W. W. & Rhodes, E., 1978. "Measuring the efficiency of decision making units," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 2(6), pages 429-444, November.
    22. Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L., 2003. "The dynamic relationship between the federal funds rate and the Treasury bill rate: An empirical investigation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1079-1110, June.
    23. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    24. Sriya Anbil & Mark A. Carlson & Christopher Hanes & David C. Wheelock, 2020. "A New Daily Federal Funds Rate Series and History of the Federal Funds Market, 1928-1954," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-059, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    25. Brandon Julio & Youngsuk Yook, 2012. "Political Uncertainty and Corporate Investment Cycles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(1), pages 45-84, February.
    26. John B. Shoven & Jeremy I. Bulow, 1975. "Inflation Accounting and Nonfinancial Corporate Profits: Physical Assets," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(3), pages 557-612.
    27. Nick Bloom & Stephen Bond & John Van Reenen, 2007. "Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(2), pages 391-415.
    28. Peter Demerjian & Baruch Lev & Sarah McVay, 2012. "Quantifying Managerial Ability: A New Measure and Validity Tests," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(7), pages 1229-1248, July.
    29. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 141-206.
    30. Johnny Kang & Carolin E. Pflueger, 2015. "Inflation Risk in Corporate Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(1), pages 115-162, February.
    31. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy P, 1993. "Policy Uncertainty, Persistence and Growth," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(2), pages 145-163, June.
    32. Liu, Guanchun & Zhang, Chengsi, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and firms' investment and financing decisions in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    33. Liu, Jinyu & Zhong, Rui, 2017. "Political uncertainty and a firm's credit risk: Evidence from the international CDS market," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 53-66.
    34. Nelson, Charles R, 1976. "Inflation and Rates of Return on Common Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 471-483, May.
    35. Bryan Kelly & Ľuboš Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2016. "The Price of Political Uncertainty: Theory and Evidence from the Option Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(5), pages 2417-2480, October.
    36. Gunther Friedl & Bernhard Schwetzler, 2011. "Terminal Value, Accounting Numbers, and Inflation," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 23(2), pages 104-112, June.
    37. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    38. Heitor Almeida & Murillo Campello & Michael S. Weisbach, 2004. "The Cash Flow Sensitivity of Cash," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1777-1804, August.
    39. Toni M. Whited & Guojun Wu, 2006. "Financial Constraints Risk," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(2), pages 531-559.
    40. Geske, Robert & Roll, Richard, 1983. "The Fiscal and Monetary Linkage between Stock Returns and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 1-33, March.
    41. Jammazi, Rania & Ferrer, Román & Jareño, Francisco & Hammoudeh, Shawkat M., 2017. "Main driving factors of the interest rate-stock market Granger causality," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 260-280.
    42. Tweedie,David & Whittington,Geoffrey, 2009. "The Debate on Inflation Accounting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521117654.
    43. Suleman A. Moosa, 1980. "Inflation And Common Stock Prices," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 3(2), pages 115-128, June.
    44. Roger K. Loh & René M. Stulz, 2018. "Is Sell‐Side Research More Valuable in Bad Times?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(3), pages 959-1013, June.
    45. Kim, Hyonok & Yasuda, Yukihiro, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and earnings management: Evidence from Japan," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    46. Day, Theodore E, 1984. "Real Stock Returns and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(2), pages 493-502, June.
    47. Wen, Fenghua & Li, Cui & Sha, Han & Shao, Liuguo, 2021. "How does economic policy uncertainty affect corporate risk-taking? Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    48. Suhaibu, Iddrisu & Harvey, Simon K. & Amidu, Mohammed, 2017. "The impact of monetary policy on stock market performance: Evidence from twelve (12) African countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1372-1382.
    49. Hong, Hai, 1977. "Inflation and the Market Value of the Firm: Theory and Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1031-1048, September.
    50. J. Tyler Leverty & Martin F. Grace, 2012. "Dupes or Incompetents? An Examination of Management's Impact on Firm Distress," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 79(3), pages 751-783, September.
    51. David A. Lins & Marvin Duncan, 1980. "Inflation Effects on Financial Performance and Structure of the Farm Sector," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 62(5), pages 1049-1053.
    52. Ji Wu & Jing Zhang & Shiyu Zhang & Liping Zou, 2020. "The economic policy uncertainty and firm investment in Australia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(31), pages 3354-3378, June.
    53. Jens, Candace E., 2017. "Political uncertainty and investment: Causal evidence from U.S. gubernatorial elections," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 563-579.
    54. R. D. Banker & A. Charnes & W. W. Cooper, 1984. "Some Models for Estimating Technical and Scale Inefficiencies in Data Envelopment Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(9), pages 1078-1092, September.
    55. Richard Blundell & Rachel Griffith & Peter Levell & Martin O'Connell, 2020. "Could COVID‐19 Infect the Consumer Prices Index?," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 357-361, June.
    56. Andrea Ajello & Isabel Cairó & Vasco Curdia & Thomas A. Lubik & Albert Queraltó, 2020. "Monetary Policy Tradeoffs and the Federal Reserve's Dual Mandate," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-066, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    57. Gultekin, N Bulent, 1983. "Stock Market Returns and Inflation: Evidence from Other Countries," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 49-65, March.
    58. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    59. Weber, Axel A. & Beck, Günter W., 2005. "Inflation rate dispersion and convergence in monetary and economic unions: lessons for the ECB," CFS Working Paper Series 2005/31, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    60. Ahmet Tezel, 1982. "The Effect Of Inflation On Common Stock Values," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 5(1), pages 17-25, March.
    61. Steven N. Kaplan & Luigi Zingales, 1997. "Do Investment-Cash Flow Sensitivities Provide Useful Measures of Financing Constraints?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(1), pages 169-215.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tarkom, Augustine & Ujah, Nacasius U., 2023. "Global policy uncertainty and working capital management: Does national culture matter?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Caixe, Daniel Ferreira, 2022. "Corporate governance and investment sensitivity to policy uncertainty in Brazil," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(PB).
    2. Ma, Huanyu & Hao, Dapeng, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty, financial development, and financial constraints: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 368-386.
    3. Chen, Yanyan, 2022. "Does political turnover affect corporate investment? Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(PA).
    4. Al-Thaqeb, Saud Asaad & Algharabali, Barrak Ghanim, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty: A literature review," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    5. Duong, Huu Nhan & Nguyen, Justin Hung & Nguyen, My & Rhee, S. Ghon, 2020. "Navigating through economic policy uncertainty: The role of corporate cash holdings," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    6. Tarkom, Augustine & Ujah, Nacasius U., 2023. "Global policy uncertainty and working capital management: Does national culture matter?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    7. Saud Asaad Al‐Thaqeb & Barrak Ghanim Algharabali & Khaled Tareq Alabdulghafour, 2022. "The pandemic and economic policy uncertainty," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 2784-2794, July.
    8. Kwabi, Frank Obenpong & Boateng, Agyenim & Wonu, Chizindu & Kariuki, Charles & Du, Anna, 2023. "Political uncertainty and cross-border equity portfolio allocation decisions: International evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    9. William, Mbanyele & Fengrong, Wang, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and industry innovation: Cross country evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 208-228.
    10. Tran, Quoc Trung, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and cost of debt financing: International evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    11. Afzali, Mansoor & Ҫolak, Gönül & Fu, Mengchuan, 2021. "Economic uncertainty and corruption: Evidence from public and private firms," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    12. Xu, Zhaoxia, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty, cost of capital, and corporate innovation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    13. Drobetz, Wolfgang & El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane & Janzen, Malte, 2018. "Policy uncertainty, investment, and the cost of capital," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 28-45.
    14. Liu, Yuanyuan & Li, Jing & Liu, Guanchun & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and firm’s cash holding in China: The key role of asset reversibility," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    15. Yuan, Tiezhen & Wu, Ji (George) & Qin, Ni & Xu, Jian, 2022. "Being nice to stakeholders: The effect of economic policy uncertainty on corporate social responsibility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    16. Klayme, Tania & Gokmenoglu, Korhan K. & Rustamov, Bezhan, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty, COVID-19 and corporate investment: Evidence from the gold mining industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    17. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Printzis, Panagiotis, 2020. "What is the investment loss due to uncertainty?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    18. Daniel Dejuán & Corinna Ghirelli, 2018. "Policy uncertainty and investment in Spain," Working Papers 1848, Banco de España.
    19. Huang, Jialin & Luo, Yu & Peng, Yuchao, 2021. "Corporate financial asset holdings under economic policy uncertainty: Precautionary saving or speculating?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1359-1378.
    20. Iván Alfaro & Nicholas Bloom & Xiaoji Lin, 2024. "The Finance Uncertainty Multiplier," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(2), pages 577-615.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Interest Rate; Policy Uncertainty; Firm Efficiency; Consumer Price Index;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • M21 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Economics - - - Business Economics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:131:y:2023:i:c:s0261560622002029. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.