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Market Instability, Investor Sentiment, And Probability Judgment Error in Index Option Prices

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  • Charles-Cadogan, G.

    (University of Leicester)

Abstract

In a natural experiment with index option prices, we study how probability judgment error, and probabilistic risk attitudes, characterize investors’ sentiment about the ranking of index option attractiveness, the weight they place on each rank, and their ability to discriminate between prices. We introduce a novel behavioral process that (1) characterizes investor sentiment about tail events in index option prices over time and probability ranks, (2) provides early warning signals of market instability, and (3) crash probability estimates from a closed form expression for the time varying transition probability that a seemingly stable market state will become unstable and crash.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles-Cadogan, G., 2021. "Market Instability, Investor Sentiment, And Probability Judgment Error in Index Option Prices," CRETA Online Discussion Paper Series 71, Centre for Research in Economic Theory and its Applications CRETA.
    • Handle: RePEc:wrk:wcreta:71
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    sentiment ; crash risk ; probability weighting function ; index option prices ; market instability JEL codes: C02 ; C44 ; D03 ; D81 ; G01 ; G12;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory
    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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