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Probability Judgment Error and Speculation in Laboratory Asset Market Bubbles

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  • Ackert, Lucy F.
  • Charupat, Narat
  • Deaves, Richard
  • Kluger, Brian D.

Abstract

In 12 sessions conducted in a typical bubble-generating experimental environment, we design a pair of assets that can detect both irrationality and speculative behavior. The specific form of irrationality we investigate is the probability judgment error associated with low-probability, high-payoff outcomes. Independently, we test for speculation by comparing prices of identically paying assets in multiperiod versus single-period markets. We establish that aggregate irrationality measured in one dimension (probability judgment error) is associated with aggregate irrationality measured in another (bubble formation).

Suggested Citation

  • Ackert, Lucy F. & Charupat, Narat & Deaves, Richard & Kluger, Brian D., 2009. "Probability Judgment Error and Speculation in Laboratory Asset Market Bubbles," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(3), pages 719-744, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:44:y:2009:i:03:p:719-744_99
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Schoenberg, Eric J. & Haruvy, Ernan, 2012. "Relative performance information in asset markets: An experimental approach," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1143-1155.
    2. Michailova, Julija, 2010. "Overconfidence and bubbles in experimental asset markets," MPRA Paper 26388, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Owen Powell & Natalia Shestakova, 2017. "The robustness of mispricing results in experimental asset markets," Vienna Economics Papers 1702, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
    4. Asako, Yasushi & Funaki, Yukihiko & Ueda, Kozo & Uto, Nobuyuki, 2020. "(A)symmetric information bubbles: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    5. Chmura, Thorsten & Le, Hang & Nguyen, Kim, 2022. "Herding with leading traders: Evidence from a laboratory social trading platform," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 93-106.
    6. Rosas-Martinez, Victor H., 2016. "On Monetary Policy, Unemployment, and Economic Growth," MPRA Paper 70980, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Cueva, Carlos & Rustichini, Aldo, 2015. "Is financial instability male-driven? Gender and cognitive skills in experimental asset markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 330-344.
    8. Victor H. ROSAS MARTINEZ, 2016. "On Monetary Policy, Unemployment, and Economic Growth," Journal of Economics Bibliography, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 298-311, June.
    9. Owen Powell & Natalia Shestakova, 2017. "The robustness of mispricing results in experimental asset markets," Vienna Economics Papers vie1702, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
    10. John Duffy & Jean Paul Rabanal & Olga A. Rud, 2022. "Market experiments with multiple assets: A survey," Chapters, in: Sascha Füllbrunn & Ernan Haruvy (ed.), Handbook of Experimental Finance, chapter 18, pages 213-224, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Lucy F. Ackert & Lei Jiang & Li Qi, 2016. "Experiments on Electronic Double Auctions and Abnormal Trades," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 83(1), pages 87-104, July.
    12. John Duffy & Janet Hua Jiang & Huan Xie, 2021. "Pricing Indefinitely Lived Assets: Experimental Evidence," CIRANO Working Papers 2021s-32, CIRANO.
    13. Stefan Palan, 2014. "A Software for Asset Market Experiments," Working Paper Series, Social and Economic Sciences 2014-01, Faculty of Social and Economic Sciences, Karl-Franzens-University Graz.
    14. Stefan Palan, 2013. "A Review of Research into Smith, Suchanek and Williams Markets," Working Paper Series, Social and Economic Sciences 2013-04, Faculty of Social and Economic Sciences, Karl-Franzens-University Graz.
    15. Charles-Cadogan, G., 2021. "Market Instability, Investor Sentiment, And Probability Judgment Error in Index Option Prices," CRETA Online Discussion Paper Series 71, Centre for Research in Economic Theory and its Applications CRETA.
    16. Rosas-Martinez, Victor H., 2016. "Expectations Over Durable Assets: How to Avoid the Formation of Value Bubbles," MPRA Paper 75350, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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