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Rare Disasters and Risk Sharing with Heterogeneous Beliefs

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  • Hui Chen
  • Scott Joslin
  • Ngoc-Khanh Tran
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Abstract

Although the threat of rare economic disasters can have large effect on asset prices, difficulty in inference regarding both their likelihood and severity provides the potential for disagreements among investors. Such disagreements lead investors to insure each other against the types of disasters each one fears the most. Due to the highly nonlinear relationship between consumption losses in a disaster and the risk premium, a small amount of risk sharing can significantly attenuate the effect that disaster risk has on the equity premium. We characterize the sensitivity of risk premium to wealth distribution analytically. Our model shows that time variation in the wealth distribution and the amount of disagreement across agents can both lead to significant variation in disaster risk premium. It also highlights the conditions under which disaster risk premium will be large, namely when disagreement across agents is small or when the wealth distribution is highly concentrated in agents fearful of disasters. Finally, the model predicts an inverse U-shaped relationship between the equity premium and the size of the disaster insurance market.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 16035.

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Date of creation: May 2010
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Publication status: published as Hui Chen & Scott Joslin & Ngoc-Khanh Tran, 2012. "Rare Disasters and Risk Sharing with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(7), pages 2189-2224.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16035

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Cited by:
  1. Zeckhauser, Richard Jay & Tran, Ngoc-Khanh, 2011. "The Behavior of Savings and Asset Prices When Preferences and Beliefs are Heterogeneous," Scholarly Articles 5027955, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
  2. Peter Christoffersen & Du Du & Redouane Elkamhi, 2013. "Rare Disasters and Credit Market Puzzles," CREATES Research Papers 2013-45, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  3. Yiqun Mou & Lars A. Lochstoer & Michael Johannes, 2011. "Learning about Consumption Dynamics," 2011 Meeting Papers 306, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Jaroslav Borovicka, 2011. "Survival and long-run dynamics with heterogeneous beliefs under recursive preferences," Working Paper Series WP-2011-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  5. Carlos Arteta & Mark Carey & Ricardo Correa & Jason Kotter, 2013. "Revenge of the steamroller: ABCP as a window on risk choices," International Finance Discussion Papers 1076, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Sang Byung Seo & Jessica A. Wachter, 2013. "Option Prices in a Model with Stochastic Disaster Risk," NBER Working Papers 19611, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Kadan, Ohad & Liu, Fang, 2014. "Performance evaluation with high moments and disaster risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 131-155.
  8. Yang-Ho Park, 2013. "Volatility of volatility and tail risk premiums," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-54, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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