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Options Traders Exhibit Subadditive Decision Weights

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Author Info
Fox, Craig R
Rogers, Brett A
Tversky, Amos

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Abstract

Professional options traders priced risky prospects as well as uncertain prospects whose outcomes depended on future values of various stocks. The prices of the risky prospects coincided with their expected value, but the prices of the uncertain prospects violated expected utility theory. An event had greater impact on prices when it turned an impossibility into a possibility or a possibility into a certainty than when it merely made a possibility more or less likely, as predicted by prospect theory. This phenomenon is attributed to the subadditivity of judged probabilities. Copyright 1996 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Risk and Uncertainty.

Volume (Year): 13 (1996)
Issue (Month): 1 (July)
Pages: 5-17
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Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:13:y:1996:i:1:p:5-17

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100299

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  1. Abdellaoui, Mohammed & Vossman, Frank & Weber, Martin, 2003. "Choice-Based Elicitation and Decomposition of Decision Weights for Gains and Losses Under Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 3756, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Diecidue, E. & Wakker, P.P., 2000. "On the intuition of rank-dependent utility," Discussion Paper 74, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Brozynski, Torsten & Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmidt, Ulrich, 2004. "The Impact of Experience on Risk Taking, Overconfidence, and Herding of Fund Managers: Complementary Survey Evidence," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-292, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Mattos, Fabio & Garcia, Philip & Pennings, Joost M.E., 2007. "Insights into Trader Behavior: Risk Aversion and Probability Weighting," 2007 Conference, April 16-17, 2007, Chicago, Illinois 37569, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. [Downloadable!]
  5. Richard Brody & John Coulter & Alireza Daneshfar, 2003. "Auditor Probability Judgments: Discounting Unspecified Possibilities," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 85-104, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Alevy, Jonathan & Haigh, Michael S. & List, John A., 2003. "Information Cascades: Evidence From A Field Experiment With Financial Market Professionals," Working Papers 28608, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Enrico Diecidue & Peter Wakker & Marcel Zeelenberg, 2007. "Eliciting decision weights by adapting de Finetti’s betting-odds method to prospect theory," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 179-199, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. William Neilson, 2001. "Calibration results for rank-dependent expected utility," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 4, pages 1-5. [Downloadable!]
  9. Enrico Diecidue & Dolchai La-ornual, 2009. "Reconciling support theory and the book-making principle," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 173-190, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-4.

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