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The impact of sovereign rating changes on European syndicated loan spreads: The role of the rating-based regulation

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  • Drago, Danilo
  • Gallo, Raffaele

Abstract

We analyze the impact of sovereign rating changes on European corporate loan spreads. We demonstrate that sovereign downgrades lead to significant increases in the spread of loans to domestic firms. We find evidence that the negative effects of a sovereign downgrade are widespread across all firms, also unrated, which are the majority of firms in the European syndicated loan market. A relevant part of this impact depends on the reliance of financial regulation on credit ratings (certification effect), which reduces also loan size and leads to additional burdens for investment grade firms. Instead, we do not find evidence of a significant impact generated by an upgrade. Our results hold also controlling for the sovereign risk, crisis periods, lender characteristics, and endogeneity of loan contract terms.

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  • Drago, Danilo & Gallo, Raffaele, 2017. "The impact of sovereign rating changes on European syndicated loan spreads: The role of the rating-based regulation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PA), pages 213-231.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:73:y:2017:i:pa:p:213-231
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.02.029
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    3. Boumparis, Periklis & Milas, Costas & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2017. "Economic policy uncertainty and sovereign credit rating decisions: Panel quantile evidence for the Eurozone," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 39-71.
    4. Boumparis, Periklis & Milas, Costas & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2019. "Non-performing loans and sovereign credit ratings," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 301-314.
    5. Hasan, Iftekhar & Hassan, Gazi & Kim, Suk-Joong & Wu, Eliza, 2021. "The real impact of ratings-based capital rules on the finance-growth nexus," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    6. Cuadros-Solas, Pedro J. & Salvador, Carlos & Suárez, Nuria, 2021. "Am I riskier if I rescue my banks? Beyond the effects of bailouts," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    7. Hasan, Iftekhar & Kim, Suk-Joong & Politsidis, Panagiotis & Wu, Eliza, 2020. "Syndicated bank lending and rating downgrades: Do sovereign ceiling policies really matter?," MPRA Paper 102941, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Charles-Cadogan, G., 2021. "Market Instability, Investor Sentiment, And Probability Judgment Error in Index Option Prices," CRETA Online Discussion Paper Series 71, Centre for Research in Economic Theory and its Applications CRETA.
    9. Cuadros-Solas, Pedro Jesús & Salvador Muñoz, Carlos, 2022. "Disentangling the sources of sovereign rating adjustments: An examination of changes in rating policies following the GFC," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    10. Serati, Massimiliano & Venegoni, Andrea, 2019. "The cross-country impact of ECB policies: Asymmetries in – Asymmetries out?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 118-141.
    11. Hippolyte Balima & Alexandru Minea & Cezara Vinturis, 2023. "Do sovereign credit rating events affect the foreign exchange market? Evidence from a treatment effect analysis," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 90(1), pages 156-181, July.
    12. Kleimeier, Stefanie & Sander, Harald, 2022. "Twenty years with the Euro: Eurozone banking market integration revisited," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign credit rating; Loan spread; Financial regulation; Certification effect; Bank credit supply;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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